Main Points:
- Bitcoin has traded between $100,000 and $112,000 over the past month, with clear resistance at approximately $112,000 and support around $100,000.
- Early May saw a test of the lower band near $92,000, followed by a robust recovery above $100,000.
- Mid-May featured a challenge and brief breach of the $112,000 resistance, driven by strong buying interest and ETF-related optimism.
- Late May into early June marked a range-bound phase, with ETF outflows weighing on Bitcoin while Ethereum products saw inflows.
- Investors should watch for a decisive break above $112,000 or a drop below $100,000 to signal the next major trend.
- Broader trends include corporate treasuries allocating to Bitcoin, institutional interest in new crypto IPOs, and macro drivers like Fed policy and U.S.–China trade talks.
Early May: Testing the Lower Band
In early May, Bitcoin opened at approximately ¥15,103,051 (about $104,900) and promptly dipped to a low of ¥13,248,605 (roughly $92,000) by May 6. This undershoot reflected a short-term bearish pressure following April’s rally, suggesting profit-taking and intensified volatility as traders recalibrated risk exposures. The descent towards the lower band tested market confidence, but it also attracted bargain hunters and algorithmic buyers positioned to capitalize on oversold conditions.
The rebound from this low was swift. Buyers re-entered near the ¥14.4 million ($100,000) support level, citing Bitcoin’s long-term adoption narrative and expectations of renewed institutional inflows. Technical charts indicated a higher low pattern forming, signaling potential base-building for the next upward leg. This bottoming action was accompanied by a gradual increase in open interest on futures markets, underscoring traders’ willingness to establish directional bets around the $100,000 mark.
Mid-May: Assault on Resistance
As May progressed, Bitcoin’s rally gained momentum, propelling prices toward the ¥16.1 million threshold—approximately $112,000—which acted as a formidable resistance line. On May 22, Bitcoin briefly pierced this ceiling, reaching a high of ¥16,129,872 (around $112,000), fueled by optimism around spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and bullish forecasts from prominent analysts. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest and Tom Lee of Fundstrat remained vocal about Bitcoin’s potential to outperform traditional assets, contributing to a surge in speculative buying.
However, the resistance held firm. Profit-taking emerged as traders locked in gains at these lofty levels, and a lack of broader market catalysts prevented a sustained breakout. Moreover, weekly Bitcoin ETF data showed approximately $129 million in net outflows, marking a second consecutive week of red flows, which added headwinds to the upside push.
Late May to Early June: Range-Bound Dynamics
From late May through early June, Bitcoin consolidated between the $100,000 support and $112,000 resistance. June 6 saw a dip back to ¥14,575,951 (about $101,200), once again affirming the lower band’s significance. Yet, market participants remained hesitant to commit to large directional trades, awaiting clarity on macroeconomic and regulatory developments.
ETF flows cooled considerably: while Bitcoin products experienced outflows, Ethereum-based ETFs reported notable inflows, shifting some capital away from BTC toward ETH and other altcoins. This reallocation was partly driven by Ethereum’s upcoming network upgrades and strong DeFi activity, which promise increased transaction throughput and utility.
On the micro level, on-chain metrics showed steady accumulation by long-term holders, reducing circulating supply and underpinning price stability. Simultaneously, derivatives data revealed elevated call option open interest around $112,000 strikes, indicating that many traders were positioning for an eventual breakout rather than capitulation.
Emerging Market Drivers
Several broader trends are now shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory:
- Corporate Treasury Adoption: Over 60 firms, including technology and media companies, have allocated Bitcoin to their balance sheets since April, collectively investing over $11 billion. While this institutional embrace bolsters demand, it also introduces volatility risks should firms divest during downturns.
- Crypto IPO Momentum: Circle Internet Group’s IPO success and Gemini’s confidential SEC filing highlight growing investor appetite for regulated crypto businesses. Such developments may indirectly support Bitcoin by enhancing institutional infrastructure and market liquidity .
- Macro and Geopolitical Factors: Anticipation of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year and ongoing U.S.–China trade discussions are key macro drivers. A dovish pivot by the Fed could spur risk-on flows into crypto, while trade tensions may inject cross-asset volatility, potentially favoring Bitcoin as a non-correlated store of value.
- Technological Upgrades: Continued advancements in Layer-2 solutions and Lightning Network adoption are improving Bitcoin’s utility for micropayments and reducing fees, which could foster broader adoption beyond speculative trading.
The “Payday Effect” and Weekday Volatility
In Japanese markets, the so-called “payday effect” (“ゴトウビ”) often leads to reduced liquidity and increased volatility on corporate payroll dates. June 10, a typical payroll processing day, may see thinner order books, potentially exacerbating price swings. Traders should be cautious around these calendar effects, as sudden liquidity vacuums can trigger sharper moves that are not always reflective of underlying fundamentals.
What Comes Next? Key Levels to Watch
As Bitcoin hovers near $110,000 (¥15.9 million), market consensus is split. A decisive break above $112,000 could trigger a fresh wave of buying, rekindling the pursuit of all-time highs near $120,000–$125,000—levels forecasted by a range of analysts for mid-2025. Conversely, a breach below $100,000 might invite stop-loss cascades and test lower supports around $90,000, where long-term holders have historically stepped in.
Active traders should monitor:
- ETF flow reports for signs of capital rotation.
- On-chain metrics such as exchange inflows and miner selling.
- Options skew around key strikes, especially $100,000 and $112,000.
- Global news on regulatory developments, Fed policy, and geopolitical events.
Conclusion
Over the past month, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, oscillating within a well-defined range between $100,000 and $112,000. Early May’s test of the lower band gave way to a mid-May surge toward resistance, followed by a consolidative phase in late May to early June. Institutional dynamics—rising corporate treasury adoption, evolving ETF flows, and crypto IPO momentum—are increasingly influential, alongside macro drivers like Fed rate outlooks and geopolitical negotiations.
For investors seeking new revenue opportunities and practical blockchain applications, the current environment offers both caution and opportunity. A break above $112,000 could reignite bullish momentum, while a fall below $100,000 would call for defensive positioning. In either scenario, staying attuned to market flows, on-chain signals, and broader economic indicators will be essential for navigating Bitcoin’s next major move.
