Main Points:
- CryptoQuant reports a third wave of large-scale Bitcoin profit-taking, matching levels of March and December–February waves.
- New whale investors (acquired BTC within 155 days) led the selling, realizing ~$6–8 billion in gains.
- Short-term SOPR rose above 1.05; long-term SOPR spiked to ~4×, driven by dormant whales offloading 80,000 BTC.
- Ethereum stablecoins (USDT, USDC, WBTC) also saw $40 million/day profit-taking at wave’s peak.
- Exchange inflows of 70,000 BTC confirm broad risk-off behavior; altcoin inflows similarly elevated.
- Historical patterns suggest a multi-month consolidation before the next bull run; QCP Capital and CryptoQuant MVRV models point to potential peak by September around $125,000–$130,000.
- Options data shows traders positioning for $130,000 calls in September, while institutional ETF inflows remain robust.
- Investors should watch support levels near $110,000 and $116,000; dips may offer entry points ahead of renewed uptrend.
1. Introduction: Understanding Profit-Taking Waves
In the current Bitcoin bull market, profit-taking phases are natural and often healthy. CryptoQuant’s weekly report dated August 1, 2025 highlights that the market is undergoing its third major profit-taking wave, comparable to those in March 2024 and December 2024–February 2025. This wave reflects substantial on-chain selling pressure by both new and dormant whale investors, setting the stage for a temporary adjustment before the next leg up.
2. CryptoQuant’s Third Wave Analysis
CryptoQuant identifies that realized profits reached $6–8 billion during late July, mirroring prior peaks in early Q2 2024 and Q1 2025. New whale investors—those who acquired BTC within the last 155 days—were the primary drivers, offloading large positions as price topped over $120,000. The report underscores that these fresh whales capitalized aggressively on the recent highs.
3. Whale Behavior and SOPR Dynamics
Short-Term vs. Long-Term SOPR Trends
- Short-Term SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) rose above 1.05 last week, indicating recent buyers realized 5% gains.
- Long-Term SOPR surged to 4×, driven by dormant whales selling 80,000 BTC at significant profits.
These metrics confirm that both recent and long-held coins were sold at scale during this third wave.
[Insert Figure 1 here: Short-Term and Long-Term Holder SOPR Trends]
4. Altcoin Profit Realization: Ethereum Ecosystem
The profit-taking extended beyond Bitcoin. Large holders of USDT, USDC, and WBTC on Ethereum also realized gains, with daily profit-taking peaking at $40 million in late July. This mirrors similar altcoin profit waves in March 2024 and January 2025, suggesting broad risk-off behavior across major tokens.
5. Exchange Inflows Confirming Risk-Off
On the exchange front, transfers from large holders to trading platforms spiked to 70,000 BTC in a single day, aligning with past peak waves. Altcoin inflows to exchanges likewise increased, underscoring a widespread move to liquidity during this profit-taking phase.
[Insert Figure 2 here: Bitcoin Exchange Inflows During Profit-Taking Waves]
6. Historical Patterns: Consolidation Before Renewal
CryptoQuant notes that after substantial profit-taking waves, multi-month consolidation or sideways trading often follows, cooling overheated markets. Past cycles in 2021 and 2024 exhibited 2–4 months of adjustment before resuming upward momentum, implying that Bitcoin and Ethereum might trade in a range until late 2025.
7. QCP Capital and MVRV Insights
QCP Capital’s July 30 analysis points out that Bitcoin’s $120,000 level faces strong resistance, with buying pressure around $116,000 but thin beyond it. CryptoQuant’s MVRV analysis further suggests a potential cycle top by September 10, 2025, forecasting a likely price ceiling near $125,000, and intense selling beyond $140,000–$150,000 ﹙20% odds above $125,000, sub-5% above $150,000﹚.
8. Options Market Positioning
Deribit options data shows traders adding September $130,000 calls and maintaining $115,000/$140,000 call spreads, indicating confidence in volatility and upside potential for Q3 2025.
9. Institutional Flows: ETF Inflows Remain Strong
Despite profit-taking, US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net inflows, notably BlackRock’s IBIT contributing over $760 million on a single day, supporting mid-term bullish fundamentals.
10. Implications for Investors
- Support Levels: Watch $110,000 (weekly close level) and $116,000 (short-term support).
- Entry Points: Consolidation dips could present buying opportunities ahead of the next upward phase.
- Risk Management: Consider scaling positions to manage volatility during this adjustment.
11. Conclusion
The third wave of profit-taking in this bull market is a normal phase reflecting both new and veteran whale investors locking in gains. Historical patterns and on-chain metrics suggest a period of consolidation lasting several months before Bitcoin challenges fresh highs. Traders and investors should monitor key support levels, ETF inflows, and options positioning to navigate this adjustment and position for the next leg up in late 2025.
