Main Points:
- Arthur Hayes predicts a rapid climb past $100,000 for Bitcoin.
- U.S. Treasury bond buybacks are injecting liquidity into markets.
- A weakening U.S. dollar may push investors toward BTC and gold.
- Macro uncertainty and dovish monetary policies support Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset.
- This moment could represent the last major buying opportunity below $100,000.
A Crypto Titan’s Bullish Call
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, is not new to bold crypto predictions. On April 21, 2025, he reignited the Bitcoin bull narrative by declaring that the era of buying BTC below $100,000 may be nearing its end. He referenced recent macroeconomic policy changes in the U.S.—particularly the Treasury’s bond buyback program and the weakening dollar—as key catalysts for Bitcoin’s impending surge.
“This might be the last chance to buy BTC under $100K,” Hayes posted on X (formerly Twitter).
This statement, while dramatic, reflects deeper shifts in global finance. Let’s explore why this forecast is more than just social media hype and how it ties into broader structural changes in money markets.
The Bond Buyback “Bazooka”: What It Means for Bitcoin
In 2024, the U.S. Treasury resumed regular bond buybacks for the first time in two decades. This program involves purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds circulating in the open market—injecting liquidity and stabilizing yields.
Starting in May 2024, the Treasury committed to weekly purchases, scaling up to $30 billion quarterly. This move:
- Frees up capital in bond markets.
- Supports asset prices through increased demand.
- Acts as indirect monetary easing, despite the Fed’s public stance.
Hayes referred to this as a “bazooka” aimed at financial markets—a metaphor for the sheer force of the stimulus involved. The implication? Bitcoin, a liquidity-sensitive asset, could benefit massively from such macro conditions.
Bitcoin as a Beneficiary of Dollar Weakness
Alongside liquidity injections, the U.S. dollar is showing signs of sustained decline. As of April 2025, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest levels since March 2022. The reasons include:
- Political instability and inconsistent trade policy under the Trump administration.
- Diminishing growth forecasts for the U.S. economy.
- Increased expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Historically, a weaker dollar boosts the appeal of non-sovereign stores of value—gold and Bitcoin being top choices. When fiat currency purchasing power is in question, hard assets typically outperform.
“Bitcoin and gold are becoming the new reserve assets,” Hayes said in a related essay.
Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Hunt for Hard Assets
With inflation pressures still lingering and central banks pivoting toward dovish policies, investors are hedging against future currency debasement. Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity (21 million supply cap) makes it attractive in environments where fiat money supply expands uncontrollably.
Furthermore, if the Fed begins cutting interest rates later in 2025—as markets increasingly anticipate—it would:
- Lower opportunity costs for holding BTC.
- Encourage risk-on behavior.
- Spark capital inflows to Bitcoin from bonds and cash holdings.
This forms the macroeconomic backdrop that makes Hayes’s $100K prediction plausible.
Crypto and Gold: A New Asset Class Duo?
Gold has long been the go-to hedge against economic uncertainty. However, Bitcoin is fast catching up as a “digital gold” with higher upside potential. The two are now being talked about in tandem as reserve assets.
While central banks stockpile gold, institutional and tech-savvy investors increasingly prefer Bitcoin for its:
- Portability.
- Divisibility.
- Transparent supply mechanism.
In some jurisdictions, Bitcoin is even being considered for sovereign wealth fund exposure, mirroring earlier moves by El Salvador and potential interest from Middle Eastern oil economies.
Comparing 2021 and 2025: Is This Time Different?
During the 2021 bull run, Bitcoin approached $69,000 before crashing to below $20,000 in 2022. That cycle was driven by retail FOMO and COVID stimulus.
In contrast, the 2025 narrative is fundamentally different:
- Institutional adoption is higher.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs are widely available.
- Governments are indirectly stimulating markets again—this time via debt market operations.
The market structure is more mature, and the drivers are deeper than just speculative hype.
Key Risks and Counterpoints
While Hayes’s outlook is optimistic, investors must weigh the risks:
- U.S. political volatility could lead to policy shocks.
- If inflation spikes again, the Fed might abandon rate cut plans.
- Geopolitical instability (e.g., conflict in Taiwan or Middle East) could spook markets.
Still, Bitcoin has historically benefited from uncertainty, acting as a hedge when traditional systems wobble.
Strategic Implications for Investors
If Hayes is correct, the current price zone (between $65K–$75K) could indeed be the “last dip” before six-figure territory. For both new entrants and seasoned HODLers, this presents a decision point:
- Accumulate before liquidity fully floods in?
- Wait for confirmation of a breakout beyond $100K?
Risk management remains crucial, but macro signals increasingly favor the former.
A New Paradigm for Bitcoin Valuation
Arthur Hayes’s call is more than just a speculative tweet. It is a reflection of a broader macroeconomic shift—where the U.S. dollar weakens, liquidity returns, and Bitcoin rises to prominence alongside gold.
In this new paradigm, Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset. It’s positioning itself as a viable reserve store of value for individuals, institutions, and potentially even nations.
As central banks oscillate between hawkish and dovish cycles, and as digital financial infrastructure becomes more robust, the next few months could define Bitcoin’s role for the next decade.
If Hayes is right, $100K might soon be just another stepping stone.
