Key Points:
- Bitcoin ETF saw inflows of over $2 billion in one week, pushing prices close to $70K.
- October, historically a bullish month for Bitcoin, is once again showing strong performance.
- U.S. Presidential election dynamics are influencing market expectations, with possible regulatory shifts based on the election outcome.
Bitcoin Approaching $70,000 with Major ETF Inflows
Bitcoin (BTC) has been surging and is now nearing the $70,000 mark. On October 21st, it reached $69,327.50, marking a 1.79% increase from the previous day and a notable 10% gain over the past week. This recent surge is the highest since June 2024, indicating renewed market optimism.
The driving force behind this rally appears to be significant inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to data from SoSoValue, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total inflow of $2.18 billion (¥325 billion) in the week ending October 18th. The daily average inflows have reached $400 million, close to the first-quarter average of $568 million in 2024.
This surge in ETF demand has helped push Bitcoin prices upwards, and it’s reminiscent of the March 2024 rally, which saw Bitcoin reach its all-time high of $73,798. With the SEC recently approving options trading for 11 Bitcoin ETFs, institutional investors now have additional tools for managing risk, which could further stimulate demand in the market.
Historical Bullish October for Bitcoin
October is traditionally a strong month for Bitcoin, often referred to as “Uptober” in the cryptocurrency space. Data from the past nine years shows that Bitcoin has recorded an average 30% increase in October eight out of nine times. Analysts from QCP Capital, a cryptocurrency trading firm in Singapore, have noted that this trend could continue in 2024.
So far, the market’s performance seems to support these predictions, with Bitcoin recording substantial gains in October. The combination of strong ETF inflows and historical trends is painting an optimistic picture for the remainder of the month.
Presidential Election and Its Impact on Bitcoin
As the U.S. Presidential election on November 5th approaches, many in the crypto market are speculating about the potential regulatory landscape. Historically, Bitcoin has performed well after U.S. elections, regardless of which party wins. For instance, Bitcoin experienced positive price movements following the elections in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
This time, the election holds particular significance for the crypto industry. Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, has shown a favorable stance toward cryptocurrencies, and many analysts believe that a Trump victory could lead to more crypto-friendly regulations. Grayscale, a major U.S. investment firm, has stated that a Trump administration might appoint regulators who are more open to supporting innovation in the crypto space.
On the other hand, the impact of a win by Vice President Kamala Harris could be less favorable for Bitcoin. Digital asset management firm ETC Group has predicted that a Trump victory could lead to a 10.7% increase in Bitcoin’s price, while a Harris victory might result in a 10.5% decline. These predictions are based on the belief that Harris would likely continue the current regulatory environment, which some view as less favorable to cryptocurrency innovation.
The Road Ahead for Bitcoin
As October progresses, Bitcoin’s performance appears poised for further gains. The combination of strong ETF inflows, historical market trends, and the upcoming U.S. Presidential election all point to a potentially pivotal period for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. While market dynamics can shift quickly, current indicators suggest that Bitcoin could surpass $70,000 in the coming weeks, barring any major setbacks.
The market will be closely watching both ETF flows and election developments, as these factors are expected to play a significant role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory through the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.
