A moving average of Bitcoin (BTC) has seen positive gains, especially for those who have held BTC for thirty days or less. The metric used for this is the Short-Term Holder Spent Outfit Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR); which is used for analysis for Bitcoin—measuring the profit/loss of short-term holders who move their coins on-chain. As of September 6, 2026, the STH-SOPR has a value greater than 1.
STH-SOPR: A Metric
The STH-SOPR assesses a scale of >1 to <1; where a value greater than 1 means a profit; a value less than 1 means a loss; and a value equal to 1 is a breakeven point. It is calculated based on the Value of BTC when spent divided by Value when acquired. STH-SOPR focuses on the movement of the cryptocurrency on-chain, which, according to analysts, provides insights on investor behavior and market landscape.
The metric is an overview of the holding periods of Bitcoin investors. This is divided into three: short-term investors, medium-term investors, and long-term investors. The period reflects the sentiment of the holder. Short-term investors come in with a goal of profiting from quick movements; while longer-term investors prioritize historical performance.
The metric of STH-SOPR is a snapshot of observed trades of short-term investors; this provides a crucial snapshot onto which one can capture these individuals’ profiles—their sentiment.
Other Metrics
STH-SOPR is just one of the frameworks one can use to gauge the landscape. There are Hash Rates (the computational power of the network); Active Addresses (the number of unique addresses on the chain); HODL Waves (age distribution of wallets); and so on. Where the STH-SOPR looks at the market through a specific lens, other metrics can be combined to enrich analysis—that is, to give more of a three-dimensional view. Pairing the STH-SOPR with other lenses should, by logic, inform the individual better.
Metrics Depend on the Investor
An STH-SOPR greater than 1 is, by the nature of its definition, an indicator of gains for short-term investors. For investors of different profiles, it does not necessarily reflect gains; highlighting the importance of other metrics.
Nevertheless, one must choose which model fits them best. Just because the STH-SOPR is greater than 1, this is not an overall picture; again, it is more a snapshot that is tailored for the specific audience in which it caters to. One must do their due diligence before deciding to invest.
