Robert Kiyosaki Warns of a Potential Bitcoin Crash in August: Seasonal Anomaly Meets Macro Risks

Main Points:

• Seasonality: August has historically shown the weakest median monthly returns for Bitcoin, sometimes referred to as the “August Curse.”
• Kiyosaki’s Warning: Predicts BTC dropping below $90,000 in August, attributes root causes to ballooning national debt and institutional ineptitude.
• Investor Strategy: Plans to double down on his BTC position if a crash occurs, viewing declines as buying opportunities.
• Broader Market Views: Other analysts, including Arthur Hayes, foresee downside toward $100,000 on similar concerns.
• Current Snapshot: Bitcoin trading around $114,900, down 2.5% week-over-week, flat on the day.
• Practical Takeaways: Be prepared for volatility, use dips to accumulate, monitor macro indicators (debt levels, Fed policy, employment data), and consider altcoins with strong fundamentals.

1. Introduction

Robert Kiyosaki, renowned author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, took to X on August 4, 2025, to sound the alarm on Bitcoin. He invoked the so-called “Bitcoin August Curse,” a seasonal anomaly backing his forecast of a potential crash below $90,000 this month. While he reassured followers that the true culprit lies not in crypto technology but in systemic macroeconomic failings—ballooning U.S. national debt and policy missteps by the Federal Reserve and Treasury—his warning has reignited debate about seasonality in digital assets.

2. Seasonal Anomaly: The “August Curse”

• Historical Data: Coinglass data shows August has the lowest median monthly return among all months (Figure 1).
• Summer Lull: Crypto markets often slow in northern-hemisphere summer, with reduced trading volumes and liquidity (“summer doldrums”).
• Behavioral Factors: Traders on vacation, lower retail interest, and a shift toward risk-off assets can exacerbate declines.

Figure 1: Monthly Median Bitcoin Returns (Based on Coinglass Data)

This bar chart underscores that, historically, BTC’s median return in August hovers around -2%, markedly lower than any other month. Investors should factor in seasonality alongside fundamentals.

3. Kiyosaki’s Warning and Positioning

• Predicted Crash: Kiyosaki posed the question, “Will Bitcoin fall below $90,000 in August?” and answered himself affirmatively.
• Underlying Causes: He attributes any downturn to macro shortcomings—unchecked federal deficits and policy paralysis, not flaws in Bitcoin’s technology or adoption.
• Buying Strategy: He plans to double his Bitcoin holdings if the price dips beneath $90,000, treating the pullback as a discounted entry point.

4. Macroeconomic Drivers Behind the Warning

• National Debt Expansion: U.S. federal debt recently surpassed $34 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.
• Fed & Treasury Effectiveness: Mixed signals on rate cuts, tapering, and monetary support have unsettled markets.
• U.S. Employment Data: Upcoming jobs reports in August could trigger volatility if they deviate from expectations, influencing Fed policy outlook.

By viewing Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat-currency debasement, Kiyosaki argues that macro mismanagement will ultimately drive price swings more than on-chain metrics.

5. Broader Market Perspectives

Kiyosaki is not alone.

• Arthur Hayes: The former BitMEX CEO warns of a drop toward $100,000, citing similar macro and technical triggers.
• Matrixport & Others: Some forecasting models point to subdued summer performance, with potential recovery in Q4 if institutional demand resurges.
• Historical Precedents: Past August sell-offs, such as in 2015 and 2018, preceded major bull runs, suggesting accumulation opportunities for long-term holders.

6. What This Means for Investors

1. Prepare for Volatility: Expect sharper swings; set stop-losses and position sizes accordingly.
2. Use Dips to Accumulate: If you share Kiyosaki’s bullish long-term view, lower prices offer attractive entry points.
3. Monitor Macro Indicators: Keep an eye on federal debt updates, Fed minutes, and employment figures.
4. Consider Altcoins: Diversify into assets with strong on-chain fundamentals and clear use cases—look beyond Bitcoin.
5. Stay Informed: Track data from Coinglass, CoinGecko, and major analysts on X and other platforms.

7. Conclusion

August’s seasonal weakness, compounded by systemic fiscal and monetary challenges, sets the stage for potential price declines in Bitcoin this month. Leading voices like Robert Kiyosaki and Arthur Hayes advocate using any downturn as a strategic buying opportunity rather than a cause for alarm. For investors scouting new crypto assets or seeking additional revenue streams, maintaining a balanced portfolio, emphasizing both timing (seasonality) and fundamentals, remains paramount.