Main Points:
- XRP Spot ETF Forecast: Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse anticipates that a spot ETF for XRP will launch in the second half of 2025 after SEC approval.
- Favorable Market Environment: The recent approval of spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, alongside a pro-crypto stance under the Trump administration, has spurred multiple XRP spot ETF applications in the U.S.
- Robust Global Demand: Ripple’s XRP has seen strong inflows in international ETPs despite negative pressures from the SEC, suggesting sustained investor interest.
- Additional Regulatory Developments: Garlinghouse noted that digital asset reserves, as directed by a Trump presidential order, may include cryptocurrencies seized by law enforcement, further bolstering XRP’s case.
- IPO and Acquisition Outlook: While Ripple’s potential IPO is not a priority, the company is more focused on acquisition opportunities as a strategic move.
1. XRP Spot ETF Launch Timeline
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse forecasted that a spot ETF for XRP could be approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and launched in the latter half of 2025. This optimistic prediction comes as the industry’s regulatory environment becomes increasingly favorable. Currently, 11 spot ETF products for XRP have been submitted for review. Internationally, XRP-based ETPs have been successful even when funds are moving away from other crypto products, largely due to reduced negative pressure from the SEC.
2. Favorable Market and Regulatory Environment
The approval of spot ETFs for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has set a positive precedent in the U.S. market. The supportive stance of the Trump administration toward digital asset innovation, including the establishment of a digital asset reserve, has accelerated the pace of ETF applications for altcoins. Ripple CEO Garlinghouse emphasized that these regulatory shifts have created a climate where XRP can finally benefit from the same opportunities, potentially reversing previous headwinds.
3. Ripple’s Digital Asset Reserve and IPO Prospects
Garlinghouse also touched on the potential inclusion of XRP in the national digital asset reserve—an initiative initiated by a presidential order under the Trump administration. He believes that cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, including XRP, seized by law enforcement could be incorporated into this reserve, providing an additional layer of institutional support for the asset. While the possibility of Ripple launching an IPO has been discussed, Garlinghouse stressed that IPO-driven capital is not a current priority. Instead, the company is more interested in exploring strategic acquisitions to bolster its market position.
4. Polymarket Predictions and XRP Market Performance
Market sentiment around an XRP spot ETF is highly optimistic. According to decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the probability of such an ETF being approved by the end of 2025 currently stands at 82%, peaking at 86% on March 20. Despite a recent daily decline of over 4%, XRP’s price remains robust at approximately $2.44 (around ¥362), showing significant year-on-year growth of over 297% as tracked by CoinGecko. This strong performance reflects resilient investor confidence even amid regulatory challenges.
5. A Turning Point for XRP
Brad Garlinghouse’s prediction that an XRP spot ETF will launch in the latter half of 2025 underscores the evolving landscape for altcoins in the U.S. market. With supportive regulatory signals, an increasing number of ETF applications, and strong global investor interest, XRP appears well-positioned to benefit from this new phase of market development. Additionally, the potential inclusion of seized cryptocurrencies in the national digital asset reserve further bolsters XRP’s appeal. While the journey toward market approval is still underway, industry experts are increasingly optimistic that the launch of an XRP spot ETF will mark a significant turning point in the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem.
