Main Points:
- Record accumulation by long-term holders (LTHs) at 14.46 million BTC underscores “smart money” confidence in future gains.
- Historical patterns link LTH peaks with subsequent major price rallies.
- From March to June 2025, LTH supply rose by ~500,000 BTC, while short-term holders (STHs) offloaded ~350,000 BTC.
- Many current LTHs entered at the January $109,000 peak and endured a 30% correction, demonstrating resilience.
- LTHs now control ~73% of circulating supply (19.88 million BTC), indicating potential supply squeeze.
- Additional trends: rising realized profits by LTHs, ETF custody withdrawals, and diminishing derivatives open interest may further strengthen the up-trend.
Record High Holdings by Long-Term Investors
Long-term Bitcoin holders—defined by Glassnode as addresses that have held BTC for at least 155 days—have now amassed a record 14.46 million BTC, marking the highest level ever tracked by on-chain analytics. This accumulation reflects seasoned investors’ conviction that Bitcoin’s value will continue its ascent. Historically, when LTH supply has peaked, the market has often followed with substantial rallies, underscoring the import of this metric as a forward-looking gauge of market sentiment.
Historical Precedent and Price Rallies
Looking back, peaks in LTH supply have served as credible harbingers of major price up-moves. For example, during the 2020–2021 bull cycle, record accumulation by LTHs preceded Bitcoin’s rally from around $10,000 to its then-all-time high above $64,000. Similarly, after the 2016 halving event, growing conviction among long-term holders foreshadowed the 2017 surge to nearly $20,000. Given this repeating pattern, the current peak at 14.46 million BTC suggests that another significant upward leg could be on the horizon.
Shifting Dynamics Between Long- and Short-Term Holders
Between March and June 2025, LTH supply increased by approximately 500,000 BTC, while short-term holders—those who have held BTC for less than 155 days—sold roughly 350,000 BTC. This divergence highlights a classic rotation: “smart money” accumulating during price dips and “weak hands” exiting positions. The fact that STHs are net sellers further accentuates the bullish undercurrent, as it reduces immediate selling pressure and consolidates supply in the hands of patient investors.
Entry Points and Endurance Through Volatility
Many investors now categorized as LTHs initially entered the market with the wave of enthusiasm surrounding President Trump’s inauguration and Bitcoin’s record high of $109,000 in January 2025. In the ensuing five months, Bitcoin experienced a 30% correction, testing the resolve of newer participants. Those who held through the downturn have not only avoided panic selling but also reinforced their conviction by holding until the recent price rebound to new highs. This cohort’s steadfastness speaks to a maturing market where LTHs view Bitcoin less as a speculative asset and more as a long-term store of value.
Dominance of Long-Term Holders in Circulating Supply
With LTHs now controlling ≈73% of the 19.88 million BTC in circulation, the market is becoming increasingly supply-constrained. Such concentration tends to reduce the free float available for trading, creating a potential “squeeze” effect if demand remains strong. Institutional participants and retail investors alike may find that available supply at lower price levels dwindles, setting the stage for accelerated price moves. This dominance underscores the transformative role that seasoned holders play in shaping Bitcoin’s supply dynamics.
Realized Profits, ETF Custody, and Derivatives Dynamics
Beyond raw supply metrics, additional on-chain indicators reinforce the bullish narrative:
- Realized Profits by LTHs: According to a recent CryptoSlate report, long-term holders realized approximately $930 million in profits per day at the recent peak—matching levels seen during the March breakout above $100,000—yet still below the $1.64 billion peak of early April. The sustained profit-taking by LTHs, without significant capitulation, suggests confidence in upside potential.
- ETF Custody Withdrawals: Exchange-traded fund custody programs have absorbed BTC from liquid supply, further tightening the available float. Institutional channels such as Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust have seen net outflows as clients redeem shares for underlying BTC, which is then removed from exchanges.
- Declining Derivatives Open Interest: Open interest in Bitcoin futures recently fell by ~$2.3 billion, marking one of the largest deleveraging events since 2023. This suggests that the recent price dip was driven more by margin liquidations than spot selling, allowing long-term holders to accumulate on the back of distressed futures positions.
Together, these trends reinforce the thesis that institutional and smart-money flows are underpinning Bitcoin’s uptrend.
Market Implications and Potential Catalysts
The concentration of Bitcoin in long-term hands, coupled with diminishing supply on exchanges, sets up several possible market scenarios:
- Accelerated Upward Momentum: A further supply squeeze could trigger rapid price jumps if demand persists, especially as new buyers find limited liquidity at lower price points.
- Reduced Volatility: With more BTC held off-exchange, short-term speculative trading may decline, potentially moderating price swings.
- Increased Institutional Adoption: Squeezed spot markets and tight supply could prompt institutions to lock in positions early, fueling additional inflows.
- Catalyst Events: Upcoming macroeconomic developments—such as U.S. debt ceiling negotiations, potential changes in crypto regulation, or further spot ETF approvals—may act as catalysts that unleash the pent-up demand held by long-term investors.
While the inherent volatility of cryptocurrency markets means that sudden reversals remain possible, the prevailing weight of evidence suggests a foundation for sustained upward movement.
Conclusion
The landmark accumulation of 14.46 million BTC by long-term holders marks a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s maturation. History tells us that peaks in LTH supply often presage substantial bull runs, and the current environment—characterized by robust realized profits, diminishing exchange supply, and strategic rotation out of short-term holders—underscores the strength of the bullish case. With seasoned investors demonstrating remarkable resilience through price corrections and new catalysts on the horizon, Bitcoin appears poised for another historic rally. Yet, as always, participants should remain mindful of the crypto market’s volatility and manage risk accordingly.
