Main Points:
- Traditional safe assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries are underperforming amid unprecedented monetary expansion and rising interest rates.
- Bitcoin has surged over 1,000% since March 2020, outpacing gold’s 90% gain and government bonds in the same period.
- In recent risk-off events, Bitcoin’s drawdowns have sometimes been shallower than equity benchmarks, hinting at emerging “decoupling.”
- Institutional voices—from Standard Chartered to NYDIG Research—are increasingly framing Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value.
- Campaigns in Switzerland push central banks to hold Bitcoin alongside gold, though traditional policymakers remain skeptical.
- Declining realized volatility and growing ETF flows suggest Bitcoin’s investor base is maturing.
- Bitcoin may not yet meet classic safe-asset criteria, but its resilience amid geopolitical and policy shocks demands a broader definition of “sanctuary assets.”
Introduction: Challenging the Old Paradigm
For decades, the concept of a “safe haven” centered on gold and U.S. Treasuries—assets prized for low volatility and predictability during market turmoil. Yet today’s financial landscape—marked by 24/7 global trading, geopolitical uncertainty, and unprecedented central bank balance-sheet expansion—calls that orthodoxy into question. In 2020 alone, over 40% of the U.S. dollar supply was printed, testing gold’s ability to protect purchasing power beyond its 90% rise over five years.
Traditional Safe Assets Under Strain
Gold’s Modest Triumph
- Gold has appreciated roughly 90% over the past five years, a strong showing by historical standards but overshadowed by the sheer scale of monetary inflation.
- When 40% of the money supply emerges in a single year, an asset’s nominal gains must be contextualized against systemic currency debasement.
U.S. Treasuries in the Crosswinds
- Long-duration Treasuries have struggled as yields approached 5%, inflicting losses on bond-heavy portfolios.
- The assumption that bonds offer stability falters when interest-rate risk meets aggressive tightening cycles.
The Meteoric Rise of Bitcoin
Since the March 2020 market crash, Bitcoin has exploded over 1,000%, handily outperforming both gold and long-term Treasuries. From a low near $4,000 in March 2020 to highs above $100,000 in early 2025, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory has been nothing short of remarkable. Meanwhile, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) plunged over 50% from its 2020 peak, and gold’s 90% gain feels muted against the backdrop of mass central-bank liquidity.
Bitcoin’s Behavior in Risk-Off Episodes
Although still volatile, Bitcoin’s drawdowns in several recent crises hint at an evolving correlation with traditional markets:
- COVID-19 Crash (March 2020): BTC fell 40% vs. QQQ’s 27%.
- Banking Crisis (March 2023): BTC down 14%, QQQ down 7%.
- Yen Carry Unwind (August 2024): BTC down 20%, QQQ down 6%.
- Tariff-Led Selloff (April 2025): BTC down 11%, QQQ down 16%.
Notably, during the April 2025 tariff shock, Bitcoin’s loss was shallower than the Nasdaq-100’s, demonstrating relative resilience under policy-driven equity weakness.
Institutional Voices Championing Bitcoin
Standard Chartered’s Bullish Forecast
Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin could hit $120,000 in Q2 2025, driven by shifting allocations away from U.S. assets and renewed ETF inflows. His analysis highlights macro uncertainties—tariffs, Fed independence questions—boosting Bitcoin’s appeal as a strategic diversifier.
NYDIG Research on Store-of-Value Traits
NYDIG’s recent report underscores Bitcoin’s emerging non-sovereign store-of-value characteristics: decentralization, censorship resistance, and immunity to direct political interference. Global head Greg Cipolaro notes Bitcoin’s 13% gain in April 2025 despite broader market declines, attributing this to trade-tension-driven capital rotation.
Central Banks and the Push for Bitcoin Reserves
A Swiss referendum campaign aims to amend the constitution, compelling the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to hold Bitcoin alongside gold. Advocates argue a 1–2% Bitcoin allocation in CHF-trillion-level reserves offers inflation immunity and diversification. Yet SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel rebuffs the idea, citing liquidity shortfalls and cybersecurity risks. This clash typifies the broader tension between crypto proponents and cautious monetary authorities.
Maturing Volatility and Growing Flows
Volatility Decline Over Time
NYDIG data show Bitcoin’s annualized realized volatility at 52.2% by Q1 2025—down from triple-digit levels—reflecting a maturing asset and investor base.
Surging ETF Inflows
CoinShares reports $3.4 billion flowing into crypto strategies in the week ending April 25, the third-largest weekly inflow on record, underscoring growing institutional adoption amid macro uncertainty.
Does Bitcoin Qualify as a Safe Asset?
By classical definition—low volatility and preservation of value in a crisis—Bitcoin still falls short. Its drawdowns exceed those of gold and Treasuries in several episodes. However, if we redefine “safe asset” to emphasize non-sovereign neutrality, censorship resistance, and decentralized liquidity, Bitcoin’s case strengthens. In an era of political fragmentation and currency debasement, resilience may derive less from price stability and more from systemic robustness.
Toward a New Definition of Sanctuary Assets
- Neutrality: Bitcoin operates outside any single jurisdiction, reducing exposure to policy-driven confiscations or capital controls.
- Transparency: On-chain issuance capped at 21 million coins ensures monetary scarcity.
- Accessibility: 24/7 global trading without intermediaries contrasts with limited bond auctions and gold vault withdrawals.
- Resilience: Historical bottoms formed after each crisis have held and trended upward, suggesting emergent structural support.
By these measures, Bitcoin emerges not as a textbook safe haven but as a complementary “sanctuary” for portfolios seeking diversification beyond traditional government-backed instruments.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s journey—from a niche speculative token to a contender for non-sovereign value preservation—reflects seismic shifts in global finance. While gold and Treasuries remain vital, their limitations under extraordinary monetary expansion and policy turbulence compel investors to reconsider “safety.” Bitcoin’s 1,000% rise since 2020, resilience in recent selloffs, institutional endorsements, and grassroots campaigns for central bank adoption mark its evolution. Yet volatility persists, and Bitcoin has yet to fully mimic classic safe-asset behavior. Ultimately, redefining safe havens to include decentralized digital assets may be the next frontier in portfolio strategy—a frontier Bitcoin is poised to lead.