Main Points ：
- Post-Quantum Financial Infrastructure Framework (PQFIF) warns that quantum computers could break cryptographic foundations of Bitcoin, Ethereum, threatening trillions in digital assets.
- The “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL)” strategy poses an immediate, insidious threat by collecting encrypted data now for future decryption.
- PQFIF recommends early defenses: automated vulnerability assessment, prioritizing institutional wallets/exchanges, transitioning via hybrid classical vs post-quantum cryptography.
- “Q-Day”—the moment when quantum machines can break current encryption—could arrive as early as 2028.
- Bitcoin developers proposed a BIP to phase out legacy signature schemes: initially block transfers to vulnerable addresses; after ~5 years freeze them.
- Industry voices like Naoris Protocol’s CEO emphasize quantum threat as the gravest yet to Bitcoin’s security.
- The SEC’s review signals a shift toward regulatory action and proactive defense in digital asset infrastructure.
- Broader analysis shows that most enterprises remain unprepared, with fewer than 5% having formal quantum-transition plans.
1. Introduction: The Quantum Threat to Crypto Infrastructure
Digital assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) rely on cryptographic algorithms—ECDSA, RSA—that are vulnerable to quantum computing breakthroughs. The U.S. SEC’s Crypto Assets Task Force is now reviewing a submission entitled the Post-Quantum Financial Infrastructure Framework (PQFIF), authored by Daniel Bruno Corvelo Costa, which outlines a strategic roadmap to quantum-resistant infrastructure.
2. The “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” (HNDL) Risk
The PQFIF emphasizes the growing threat of HNDL: adversaries are already collecting encrypted transaction data today in anticipation of decrypting it when quantum capabilities mature. This is particularly dangerous because such data could remain exploitable decades later.
3. Why Q-Day Could Be Closer Than You Think
Estimates suggest that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) capable of breaking RSA-2048 or ECDSA may emerge as early as 2028. This impending “Q-Day” poses systemic risk: massive losses, custodial chaos, and market confidence collapse.
4. PQFIF: A Roadmap to Post-Quantum Resilience
PQFIF proposes:
- Automated Vulnerability Assessments across exchanges, institutional wallets, custody systems.
- Risk-Based Migration Planning, prioritizing critical infrastructure and high-value assets.
- Hybrid Cryptographic Transition, mixing classical and post-quantum schemes to ensure continuity while upgrading.
- Alignment with NIST’s new standards (FIPS 203–205, HQC as fallback) and global regulatory frameworks.
5. Bitcoin Moves Toward Quantum Resistance
In July, developers submitted a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (“Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset”). It outlines a phased migration:
- Block new transactions to legacy, vulnerable addresses.
- Approximately five years later, freeze remaining funds held at these obsolete addresses.
This protects against unlocking dormant addresses—such as potentially Satoshi’s stash—by quantum attackers.
6. Expert Voices Sound the Alarm
David Carvalho (CEO, Naoris Protocol) described the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin’s security as “the most serious yet,” warning that current protections could be broken within five years.
Vitalik Buterin also weighed in, estimating a ~20% chance that modern cryptography could be broken by the end of 2030—enough to warrant immediate action.
7. SEC Review: Toward Regulatory Quantum Preparedness
The SEC’s active review of PQFIF signals a proactive shift: regulators are preparing for a quantum-secure digital asset future by integrating risk mitigation into oversight and rule-making.
8. Industry Readiness: A Mixed Picture
A study of enterprise preparedness reveals that fewer than 5% of organizations have formal plans for migrating to post-quantum security, despite the urgency of HNDL and Q-Day threats. High-value sectors (finance, telecom, government) are beginning to act, but widespread preparation remains limited.
9. (図表挿入提案)
Suggested Image/Graph: A timeline chart showing:
- Current year (2025) → HNDL happening now → Projected Q-Day (~2028–2030) → Proposed migration timeline (0–5 years for blocking legacy addresses; up to 2035 full transition per NSM-10).
Insertion Point: After Section 3 (“Why Q-Day Could Be Closer Than You Think”).
Purpose: To visually convey urgency and proposed timeline milestones.
Conclusion
The quantum computing era presents evolving and existential threats to cryptographically secured digital assets. The SEC’s PQFIF is a critical early step in establishing a coordinated, systemic defense. Developers and industry leaders are aligning with this urgency—Bitcoin’s BIP proposal and expert warnings underscore the need to act swiftly. Yet the broader enterprise ecosystem remains underprepared. The path forward demands crypto-agility, cross-sector collaboration, and real-world implementation of quantum-resistant infrastructure.
