Proven Bitcoin Momentum Indicator Signals Bullish Surge: $150K–$200K on the Horizon

Main Points：

• The weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram for Bitcoin has flipped positive, marking a transition from bearish to bullish momentum.
• Bitcoin’s bounce off its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) mirrors rallies seen in mid-2024 and early-2023, both of which led to substantial price gains.
  
• Historically, every positive MACD histogram shift since 2020 preceded a major Bitcoin rally—except a lone false signal in March 2022. 
• Institutional forecasts from Standard Chartered and Bitfinex underpin a potential rise to $150,000–$200,000 over the next 12–18 months.
  
• ETF flows reveal a rotation from gold to Bitcoin, signaling growing confidence in Bitcoin as a macro hedge and reserve asset.

1. Introduction: A Bullish Turn in Bitcoin’s Technical Landscape

On May 14, 2025, CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole highlighted a critical shift: Bitcoin’s weekly MACD histogram crossed above the zero line, a signal long respected by technical traders as a harbinger of sustained upside. This latest development has reignited discussions among analysts and institutional investors, many of whom have revised their year-end price targets in light of renewed momentum.

The significance of the MACD histogram turning positive cannot be overstated. It suggests that buying power is overwhelming selling pressure on a multi-week basis, often preceding sharp rallies. As Bitcoin consolidates near its current highs above $100,000, market participants are watching closely for confirmation that the broader uptrend is set to resume.

2. Understanding the MACD Histogram

The MACD indicator comprises two lines—the MACD line (the difference between the 12-period and 26-period exponential moving averages) and its 9-period signal line. The histogram visualizes the gap between these two lines. When the histogram flips from negative to positive territory, it denotes that the MACD line has crossed above its signal line, signifying a shift to bullish momentum.

In practical terms, this means that Bitcoin’s recent price action has generated enough buying interest to push the faster EMA above the slower one, reflecting accelerating upside pressure. Traders often use this as a “green light” to initiate or add to long positions, especially when confirmed on higher timeframes such as the weekly chart.

3. Historical Precedents and Chart Patterns

A true test of any technical signal is its track record. Over the past five years, Bitcoin’s weekly MACD histogram has turned positive on five separate occasions. Each positive flip, except for one in March 2022, preceded a meaningful rally in BTC’s price.

• Late October 2023: The histogram turned positive, foreshadowing Bitcoin’s surge from around $45,000 to a December 2023 all-time high above $69,000.
• Mid-2024: A positive flip coincided with a bounce from the 50-week SMA near $60,000, launching a rally above $80,000 by year-end.
• Early 2025: The latest shift mirrors these earlier patterns, suggesting that history may again repeat itself.

This consistency underscores the MACD histogram’s utility as a momentum gauge. The sole false signal in March 2022—when bulls were “trapped” before a brief correction—serves as a reminder that no indicator is flawless. However, with a success rate above 80%, traders routinely monitor this metric for high-probability entries.

4. Macro Environment and Institutional Adoption

Technical catalysts alone often lack staying power without supportive macro fundamentals. Fortunately for Bitcoin bulls, several institutional developments are converging:

1. Partnerships Bridging Traditional Finance and Crypto
   On May 14, Reuters reported that crypto prime broker FalconX partnered with Standard Chartered, enabling institutional clients to leverage the bank’s forex services and infrastructure to streamline fiat settlements for crypto trading. This alliance reflects deepening ties between legacy banks and digital-asset platforms, increasing capital flow efficiency and reducing counterparty risk.
2. Digital Asset Market Valuation Trends
   Standard Chartered projects that the overall cryptocurrency market could swell from its current $3 trillion to $10 trillion by 2026, driven by growing institutional allocations and emerging regulatory clarity. A larger market cap often equates to higher price ceilings for leading assets like Bitcoin.
3. Macro Liquidity and Interest Rates
   Persistently accommodative central bank policies and elevated global liquidity levels continue to support risk-on assets. With nominal yields remaining near historical lows, Bitcoin’s non-yielding nature is less of a deterrent, particularly as investors seek diversifiers outside traditional fixed-income.

These macro tailwinds lend credence to the bullish technical signal, creating a synergistic environment where both fundamentals and charts point higher.

5. ETF Flows and the Gold-Bitcoin Dynamic

Beyond direct crypto investments, exchange-traded funds offer a lens into institutional sentiment. Recent research from Standard Chartered reveals a notable rotation of capital away from gold ETFs into Bitcoin ETFs, a phenomenon unseen at this scale since the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

• YTD Performance: As of May 12, 2025, gold is up roughly 20% year-to-date, while Bitcoin has gained about 10%, leading to a 25% decline in the Bitcoin-gold ratio.
• ETF Divergence: Gold ETF outflows have coincided with BTC ETF inflows, indicating a shift in how institutions view macro hedges.

This sentiment shift is significant. Historically, Bitcoin has lagged gold by 100–150 days following major gold rallies, only to catch up and often surpass gold’s performance. If that historical oscillator holds true, Bitcoin may be approaching the “calm before the storm,” with a sizeable leg up likely in the coming months.

6. Price Forecasts and Analyst Insights

Technical and fundamental catalysts converge in the forecasts from major institutions and platforms:

• Standard Chartered: The bank suggests that heightened institutional adoption and inflows could propel Bitcoin to as high as $200,000 by late 2025.
• Bitfinex: Analysts at the exchange forecast Bitcoin evolving into a global macro reserve asset, eyeing a range of $150,000–$180,000 in 2025–26.
  
• Metaculus Aggregator: Polling various expert models, the consensus price range for year-end 2025 centers around $130,000–$200,000, factoring in divergent views from PlanB’s stock-to-flow to macro hedge hypotheses. 

While price targets always carry uncertainty, the clustering of estimates in the $150K–$200K corridor underscores broad confidence in Bitcoin’s next bull phase.

7. Risks and Potential Headwinds

No analysis is complete without acknowledging challenges:

• Regulatory Shifts: Unexpected crackdowns or restrictive policies—particularly in the U.S. or Europe—could derail momentum.
• Macro Surprises: A sudden hawkish pivot by central banks raising interest rates materially would increase the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets.
• Technical False Signals: As in March 2022, bullish indicators can misfire if broader market sentiment shifts abruptly.

Prudent traders will monitor these variables alongside technical cues to manage risk effectively.

8. What Traders Should Watch Next

To validate the bullish thesis, market participants should track:

1. Weekly MACD Confirmation: A sustained positive histogram for the next 2–3 weeks would reinforce the signal.
2. 50-Week SMA Holds: Continued support at or above the 50-week moving average near $100,000 signals resilience.
3. ETF Flow Trends: Ongoing net inflows into Bitcoin ETF products, as reported by major exchanges and data aggregators.
4. On-Chain Metrics: Rising addresses with balances above 0.1 BTC and declining exchange reserves point to supply tightening.

Meeting these conditions would significantly boost the odds of a rally toward the $150K–$200K range.

9. Conclusion

Bitcoin’s weekly MACD histogram turning positive marks a pivotal moment, echoing patterns that have historically preceded its most explosive rallies. Coupled with a favorable macro backdrop—characterized by deepening institutional partnerships, a shift in ETF flows from gold to Bitcoin, and upbeat forecasts from Standard Chartered and Bitfinex—the case for a sustained bull run is compelling. While risks remain, the convergence of technical and fundamental drivers suggests that Bitcoin is poised to challenge new all-time highs, with $150,000–$200,000 firmly within reach over the next 12–18 months.