Main Points:
- Emergence of a Death Cross: XRP’s short-term (23-day/50-day) moving averages are crossing below long-term averages (200-day), signaling potential further decline.
- Historical Precedents: Similar death crosses in October 2024 and February 2025 preceded steep drops, including a 32% slide in early 2025.
- Current Price Dynamics: XRP is trading around $2.20, precariously close to the $2.00 psychological support; volume has been waning.
- Key Support and Resistance Zones: Failure to hold $2.00 could see a drop to $1.85–$1.90, while reclaiming $2.32–$2.45 is essential to stave off further declines.
- Inverse Cup-and-Handle Pattern: An emerging inverse cup-and-handle suggests a deeper breakdown if $2.00 fails to hold, with a potential target near $1.10.
- Broader Crypto Market Context: Bitcoin’s strength near $112,000 and macro factors—like Fed interest rate outlook and Moody’s downgrade—exacerbate bearish pressure.
- On-Chain Metrics and Bullish Counterpoints: Despite technical bearishness, on-chain signals such as burn rate reduction and off-exchange accumulation hint at possible longer-term resilience.
- Practical Investor Guidance: Traders should monitor daily close below $2.00, consider stop-loss placements near $1.85, and watch for a sustained breach of $2.45 to reconsider bullish exposure.
- Conclusion: While the immediate outlook for XRP is bearish, careful attention to support/resistance, market sentiment, and broader crypto trends can help investors navigate potential short-term volatility.
1. Introduction: The Death Cross on XRP’s Horizon
Over the past weeks, market participants have grown increasingly wary as XRP’s short-term moving averages edged closer to crossing below its long-term moving averages—a formation known in technical analysis as the “death cross.” In essence, a death cross materializes when a shorter-period moving average (e.g., 23-day or 50-day) falls below a longer-period moving average (e.g., 200-day), traditionally signalling a shift toward bearish momentum and higher odds of continued price decline. This setup has become a focal point for traders and investors seeking new crypto assets or additional revenue sources through timely market entries and exits.
The Japanese article under review highlighted the emergence of a 23-day moving average dipping under the 200-day moving average in May 2025, raising alarms of a potential drop below the psychologically significant $2.00 level. Indeed, upon closer inspection of XRP’s chart, one notes the short-term 23-day average sliding under the 200-day average—effectively a death cross formation—just as its 50-day average prepares to do likewise. Given that previous death crosses (such as those in October 2024 and February 2025) preceded notable downturns—including a 32% slide over two months early in 2025—investors must be vigilant about the market context and risk management strategies.
2. Historical Death Cross Instances and Their Consequences
2.1 October 2024 Death Cross and 10% Drop
In October 2024, XRP’s 23-day moving average crossed below its 50-day moving average, foreshadowing a downturn. Over the subsequent three days, XRP’s price declined by roughly 10%. Although that pattern was based on shorter-term averages, it nonetheless underscored the market’s sensitivity to moving-average crossovers. At that time, XRP fell from approximately $0.95 to about $0.85, dampening sentiment among traders and fueling concerns of deeper correction.
2.2 February 2025 Death Cross Leading to 32% Slide
The more consequential death cross occurred in February 2025, when XRP’s 23-day average plunged below its 50-day average, which itself lay under the 200-day average. This rare confluence preceded a roughly 32% drawdown over the subsequent two months, with XRP slipping from near $3.10 in early February to about $2.10 by mid-April 2025. Traders who recognized this sign managed to mitigate losses by adjusting stop-loss levels and reducing position sizes, underscoring the practical utility of technical indicators in risk management.
2.3 May 2025 Death Cross and 11% Decline
Most recently, in May 2025, the 50-day moving average dipped beneath the 200-day moving average. Within two weeks of this signal, XRP experienced an 11% correction, retreating from approximately $2.47 to near $2.20. This latest move reaffirmed the correlation between death cross crossovers and short-term downside momentum. As of early June 2025, with the 23-day average also crossing below the 200-day average, market participants are bracing for potentially deeper declines unless bullish catalysts emerge.
3. Current Technical Setup: Indicators and Price Action
3.1 Emergence of the 23-Day/200-Day Death Cross
By late May 2025, XRP’s 23-day moving average had begun crossing below its 200-day moving average on the daily chart—a pattern that traders often interpret as a pronounced bearish tilt. Unlike the conventional 50-day/200-day death cross, the 23-day/200-day crossover may signal an even more abrupt directional shift, given the shorter lookback period associated with the 23-day average. The Japanese article signaled that this new death cross could push XRP below $2.00 if downward momentum continues unabated.
3.2 Inverse Cup-and-Handle Formation
Beyond moving-average crossovers, FXEmpire noted an inverse cup-and-handle pattern on XRP’s chart as of May 17, 2025. This formation resembles an upside-down teacup followed by a smaller handle structure, typically indicating a potential breakdown if the price fails to hold key support zones near $2.00. Should XRP decisively breach $2.00, the technical target implied by the inverse cup-and-handle would be near $1.10—roughly half of its current trading range—representing a possible 50% decline from mid-May 2025 levels.
3.3 Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Momentum
As of May 20, 2025, XRP’s RSI hovered near neutral levels (close to 50), having cooled off from previously overbought readings. This neutral RSI suggests there is neither strong bullish nor bearish momentum, but combined with the death cross and inverse cup-and-handle, it tilts in favor of further downside risk unless a significant reversal catalyst materializes. A failure to regain RSI levels above 60 within the next two weeks could confirm persistent bearish sentiment.
4. Current Price and Volume Dynamics
4.1 Trading Around $2.20 with Psychological Implications
As of early June 2025, XRP traded just above $2.20, teetering near the psychologically vital $2.00 mark. Breaching $2.00 could unleash panic selling, as many retail traders set stop orders around round-number levels. Crypto traders at major exchanges observed that if $2.00 support fails, the next immediate support band lies between $1.85 and $1.90—levels that were last tested in March 2025.
4.2 Declining Trading Volume and Market Caution
Daily trading volume for XRP has shown a marked decrease over the past month, dropping by roughly 18% from early May 2025 levels of $1.2 billion to below $1 billion as of early June 2025. Lower volume amid sideways or slightly downward price action indicates diminished conviction among buyers and sellers. In broader terms, decreasing volume often precedes pronounced moves; in this case, a breakdown below $2.00 could accelerate if volume spikes on the sell side.
4.3 Key Resistance Zones: $2.26–$2.32 and $2.45
For bullish reversals, XRP must reclaim resistance near $2.26–$2.32, which corresponds to the prior consolidation zone from early May 2025. Beyond that, $2.45 stands as a critical short-term hurdle; a sustainable break above $2.45 could negate the death cross implications in the near term, potentially reopening a bullish path toward $2.65. However, sentiment will likely remain fragile until XRP can close daily above $2.45 on reasonable volume.
5. Broader Crypto Market Context
5.1 Bitcoin’s Dominance and the XRP/BTC Pair
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high near $112,000 in May 2025, widening its performance gap relative to XRP and many altcoins. Against Bitcoin, XRP has endured 10 declines out of the last 12 trading days as of early June 2025, reflecting waning relative strength. On the daily XRP/BTC chart, the death cross between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages further accentuates its underperformance in a market dominated by BTC’s upward trajectory.
5.2 Macro Factors: Fed Policy and Moody’s Downgrade
Macro headwinds have also weighed on XRP. The Federal Reserve signalled in May 2025 that it may cut interest rates only once in 2025, tempering expectations of continued liquidity injections that previously buoyed risk assets. Concurrently, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating, exacerbating uncertainty in financial markets. Such macro variables often influence crypto sentiment, as lower-rate expectations can diminish capital inflows into more speculative assets like XRP.
5.3 Regulatory Developments and On-Chain Dynamics
Despite bearish technical signals, regulatory and on-chain developments offer counterpoints that could underpin a medium-term rebound. For instance, Ripple’s legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) saw a minor win in late May 2025, when a judge granted Ripple partial relief regarding the trading of certain XRP tokens internationally. This bullish legal news triggered a short-lived spike to $2.45, albeit unsustainable amid broader technical weakness.
On-chain metrics present a mixed picture. While XRP’s burn rate—measured by the percentage of tokens removed from circulation—plummeted by 41% in early June 2025, suggesting reduced token loss and possible supply stability, exchange outflows have been moderate, indicating that long-term holders are still accumulating off-exchange. Such on-chain signals imply that while retail selling has dominated recently, whales and institutional participants may foresee a turnaround.
6. Potential Price Targets and Scenarios
6.1 Bearish Scenario: Breach of $2.00 and Drop to $1.10–$1.85
If the death cross between the 23-day and 200-day moving averages fully confirms, XRP is likely to revisit its key support around $2.00. Failing that, the next major support zone ranges from $1.85 to $1.90, representing the bottom of the March 2025 consolidation band. Below that, the inverse cup-and-handle pattern points to a potential bearish target near $1.10—about a 50% drop from current levels. That target aligns with the lower boundary of XRP’s early-2025 accumulation range near the 200-day moving average.
Should XRP breach $1.85 on high volume, short-term traders may look for a further decline to $1.60, which was the 2025 low reached in January. However, reaching that level would likely require a wider market selloff—potentially triggered by a cascade of liquidations if multiple crypto assets draw below key support zones concurrently.
6.2 Neutral Scenario: Sideways Consolidation Around $2.00–$2.30
In a neutral outcome, XRP holds $2.00 support and trades in a tight range between $2.00 and $2.30 for several weeks. Such consolidation, combined with low volume, could precede a breakout in either direction. During this phase, the 50-day SMA might flatten, and the RSI could oscillate near 50, signaling indecision among market participants. Traders in this scenario would likely adopt range-trading strategies—buying near $2.00 and selling near $2.30—until a clearer directional bias emerges.
6.3 Bullish Scenario: Reclaiming $2.45 and Sustained Rally
The optimistic scenario requires XRP to break decisively above the $2.32–$2.45 resistance band. A daily close above $2.45 on healthy volume could invalidate the bearish death cross signal in the short term, potentially prompting rally attempts toward $2.65–$2.75. If XRP sustains above $2.75, a test of $3.00 could materialize, reminiscent of its early-February 2025 peak. Fundamental catalysts would likely include positive legal outcomes in the SEC case, renewed institutional demand, and broader crypto market strength driven by Bitcoin and Ethereum rallies.
Notably, in late May 2025, when news broke of Ripple USD (RLUSD) gaining approval in Dubai’s financial free zone, XRP briefly spiked above $2.45, hinting at untapped upside if such positive news accumulates. Moreover, on-chain activity—such as a resurgence in significant peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers—could provide additional fuel for a bullish reversal.
7. Practical Implications for Investors and Traders
7.1 Risk Management: Stop-Loss and Position Sizing
Given the heightened probability of further downside, traders should consider implementing disciplined stop-loss orders near critical support levels (e.g., $1.85) to limit potential losses. Position sizing becomes paramount; allocating no more than 2–3% of one’s total portfolio to XRP at current levels may be prudent, especially given the looming technical headwinds. Investors relying on dollar-cost averaging (DCA) might continue to accumulate small increments between $2.00 and $2.20, but should be prepared for volatility that could temporarily push price several percent below $2.00.
7.2 Monitoring Key Technical and On-Chain Indicators
In addition to watching price closes relative to moving averages, market participants should track on-chain metrics—such as net exchange inflows/outflows, burn rate, and wallet accumulation patterns—to gauge underlying demand. A sustained divergence between price and on-chain accumulation (e.g., consistent whale buying despite price declines) could signal that a bottom is forming. Conversely, large exchange inflows without corresponding price strength might presage further selling pressure.
7.3 Event-Driven Catalysts: Legal and Regulatory Updates
Ripple’s ongoing legal battle with the SEC remains a double-edged sword. Positive rulings—such as the partial relief granted in late May 2025 regarding token sales—have historically sparked short-lived rallies. Investors should keep abreast of court filings, judge rulings, and any derivative lawsuits affecting Ripple Labs, as these events can produce sharp spikes in XRP’s price. On the flip side, regulatory crackdowns in major markets (e.g., stricter token classification rules) could temporarily suppress demand.
7.4 Diversification and Alternative Opportunities
For readers seeking new crypto assets or additional revenue sources, the current weakness in XRP might present an opportunity to allocate a small, speculative portion of capital to alternative altcoins demonstrating stronger technical setups (e.g., Ethereum layer-2 projects, DeFi tokens with positive on-chain growth, or emerging Layer-1 blockchains like Sui, which has seen fresh developer interest). By diversifying into assets with favorable relative strength indicators, investors may balance the potential downside if XRP slides considerably.
8. Broader Crypto Market Trends and Their Relevance
8.1 Institutional Adoption and Whales’ Accumulation
Despite short-term turbulence, institutional interest in digital assets continues to grow. BlackRock’s recent acquisition of $561 million in Bitcoin spot ETFs underscores a trend of heavyweight firms moving into crypto. Although that event focused on Bitcoin, spillover demand often affects leading altcoins like XRP. Additionally, whales (large holders) have been quietly accumulating XRP off-exchange throughout late May and early June 2025. Such accumulation is partially evidenced by declining exchange reserves and batching of large transfers to cold wallets .
8.2 Regulatory Clarity and Developing Crypto Hubs
Geo-political developments—such as Dubai’s establishment of a crypto-friendly free zone where Ripple USD received approval—signal that alternative regulatory jurisdictions are embracing digital assets. Should other national regulators follow suit, positive spillover benefits may accrue to XRP, given its ties to Ripple’s enterprise remittance solutions. Conversely, heightened scrutiny in the U.S. could continue pressuring XRP and other tokens until comprehensive legislation emerges.
8.3 Innovative On-Chain Metrics: Burn Rate and Beyond
Beyond traditional technical analysis, on-chain metrics remain critical for assessing true supply-demand dynamics. As of early June 2025, XRP’s burn rate decreased by approximately 41%, implying that fewer tokens are being permanently removed from circulation each day. A reduced burn rate can be bullish if the underlying driver is increased network efficiency or platform upgrades. Investors should track metrics such as daily transaction counts, average transaction size, and liquidity on major decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
9. Subtitles by Section
9.1 Section 1 – Introduction: The Death Cross on XRP’s Horizon
In this opening section, readers are introduced to the concept of a death cross and its relevance to XRP’s current chart setup. The implications of moving-average crossovers are explained in the context of technical analysis.
9.2 Section 2 – Historical Death Cross Instances and Their Consequences
This section reviews previous instances of death crosses in XRP’s price history—specifically October 2024, February 2025, and May 2025—highlighting subsequent price drops of 10%, 32%, and 11% respectively, to demonstrate the real-world impact of such patterns.
9.3 Section 3 – Current Technical Setup: Indicators and Price Action
Key chart patterns—such as the 23-day/200-day death cross and an inverse cup-and-handle formation—are analyzed. Additionally, the section discusses momentum indicators (e.g., RSI) to contextualize potential near-term moves.
9.4 Section 4 – Current Price and Volume Dynamics
Here, the focus shifts to XRP’s recent trading around $2.20, the importance of the $2.00 support line, and the decrease in trading volume. Critical resistance zones ($2.26–$2.32 and $2.45) are also identified.
9.5 Section 5 – Broader Crypto Market Context
This section situates XRP’s technical developments within the larger crypto landscape, including Bitcoin’s strength, macroeconomic factors (Fed policy, Moody’s downgrade), and relevant regulatory/legal updates affecting Ripple and XRP.
9.6 Section 6 – Potential Price Targets and Scenarios
Three scenarios are outlined: a bearish path (breach of $2.00 leading to $1.10–$1.85), a neutral consolidation (trading in $2.00–$2.30 range), and a bullish reversal (reclaiming $2.45 and rally toward $3.00).
9.7 Section 7 – Practical Implications for Investors and Traders
Actionable guidance is provided—stop-loss placement near $1.85, monitoring of on-chain metrics, attention to legal/regulatory catalysts, and diversification into alternative crypto projects—to help readers manage risk and potential opportunity.
9.8 Section 8 – Broader Crypto Market Trends and Their Relevance
Recent trends—such as institutional accumulation (e.g., BlackRock’s Bitcoin purchase), regulatory developments (Dubai’s crypto zone), and on-chain metrics (XRP burn rate)—are discussed to illuminate the macro forces that may affect XRP’s trajectory.
9.9 Section 9 – Subtitles by Section
For readers’ convenience, this meta-section lists all section titles and describes their content focus.
10. Full English Article
10.1 Introduction: The Death Cross on XRP’s Horizon
Over the past several weeks, XRP has captured the focus of technical analysts who are watching closely as its moving-average structure morphs into a bearish orientation. Specifically, the short-term 23-day and 50-day moving averages are converging on, and in some cases crossing below, the long-term 200-day moving average—a hallmark of the dreaded “death cross.” In traditional financial markets, a death cross is widely viewed as a signal of sustained downward momentum, suggesting that prices have shifted from bullish or neutral conditions into a likely bearish phase. For investors and traders seeking new crypto assets, revenue sources, and practical blockchain use cases, understanding these technical signals is paramount to both risk mitigation and opportunity identification.
In the Japanese article we are analyzing, it was noted that, as of May 2025, XRP’s 23-day moving average had already dipped below its 200-day moving average, while its 50-day average was on the verge of doing the same. The article warned that if XRP dropped beneath the pivotal psychological level of $2.00, it could catalyze a deeper downturn. Indeed, recent data corroborate this concern, as analogous death crosses in October 2024 and February 2025 were followed by price declines of 10% over three days and roughly 32% over two months, respectively. In this comprehensive analysis, we will explore the historical context, the current technical setup, key support and resistance levels, broader market trends, and practical guidance for navigating potential volatility in XRP’s price.
10.2 Historical Death Cross Instances and Their Consequences
10.2.1 October 2024 Death Cross: 10% Drawdown in Three Days
In late October 2024, XRP’s shorter-term 23-day moving average crossed below its 50-day moving average—a pattern often called a “short-term death cross.” Three days following that crossover, XRP’s price fell by nearly 10%, sliding from approximately $0.95 to $0.85. Although this event involved shorter-term averages, it underscored how quickly traders can lose confidence once a death cross materializes.
Historically, shorter-term death crosses can signal immediate bearishness, but they may not always lead to deep or sustained declines. In October 2024’s instance, the pullback was relatively contained, and XRP bounced back to $1.00 within two weeks. Nevertheless, that episode set the stage for heightened caution among technical traders who noted the 23-day/50-day crossover as an early warning sign.
10.2.2 February 2025 Death Cross: 32% Collapse Over Two Months
More alarmingly, in February 2025, XRP’s 23-day moving average dropped beneath its 50-day moving average, which was itself below the 200-day moving average. This triple-layered configuration indicated a broader shift toward bearish consensus. Over the following two months, XRP’s price tumbled by approximately 32%, moving from near $3.10 at the beginning of February to close to $2.10 by mid-April 2025.
That February 2025 death cross likely triggered algorithmic sell signals and prompted many short-term traders to liquidate positions. The depth of that crash illustrated how powerful such crossovers can be when supported by weak volume and unfavorable macro conditions. Many investors who used stop-loss orders between $2.80 and $2.90 found themselves forced out of positions as the market rapidly declined, underscoring the importance of disciplined risk management.
10.2.3 May 2025 Death Cross: 11% Correction in Two Weeks
By mid-May 2025, analysts observed that the 50-day moving average had plunged beneath the 200-day average, constituting a conventional death cross. In the two weeks following this signal, XRP underwent an 11% correction, sliding from roughly $2.47 to near $2.20.
Although this 11% drop was less severe than the 32% earlier in the year, it nevertheless reinforced the market’s sensitivity to death crosses. Combined with weakening on-chain metrics and tepid volume, the May 2025 death cross served as a near-term bearish catalyst, prompting many investors to reassess whether to wait for a clearer bottom or cautiously step into the market.
10.3 Current Technical Setup: Indicators and Price Action
10.3.1 The 23-Day/200-Day Death Cross Takes Shape
As of late May 2025, XRP’s 23-day moving average definitively crossed below its 200-day moving average on the daily chart—an accelerated form of the conventional death cross. Unlike the more common 50-day/200-day death cross, the 23-day/200-day iteration can indicate a sharper shift in momentum, given the shorter timeframe capturing more recent price activity. Traders generally interpret this setup as a sign that bearish forces are intensifying and that lower prices may be on the horizon.
Whereas the 50-day/200-day death cross historically signaled medium-term weakness, the 23-day/200-day crossover suggests an even more immediate bearish outlook. Such a pattern reflects a scenario in which recent selling pressure over the past month (as captured by the 23-day average) has overwhelmed the longer-term uptrend embodied by the 200-day average. By early June 2025, with both crossovers complete, many technical analysts began to anticipate a drop beneath the critical $2.00 support level.
10.3.2 Emergence of Inverse Cup-and-Handle Pattern
Another technical element contributing to bearish sentiment is the inverse cup-and-handle pattern that has appeared on XRP’s daily chart. An inverse cup resembles an upside-down “U,” followed by a smaller handle structure, typically indicating that sellers are preparing to push the price even lower. According to FXEmpire, the neckline of this inverse cup-and-handle lies near $2.00, and a decisive break below that level would target roughly $1.10—a potential 50% decline from late-May 2025 prices.
While not all inverse cup-and-handle patterns resolve into dramatic selloffs, the combination of this formation with a confirmed 23-day/200-day death cross heightens the probability of more pronounced downside. For traders, this means that not only should they watch moving-average crossovers, but they must also track chart patterns that could portend accelerated declines if key levels fail to hold.
10.3.3 Relative Strength Index (RSI) Reflects Tepid Momentum
As of May 20, 2025, XRP’s RSI hovered around the neutral 50 mark, having cooled from previously overbought territory. A neutral RSI suggests that neither buyers nor sellers currently dominate, but when combined with bearish crossovers and declining volume, it tilts in favor of further downside. A critical threshold would be an RSI drop below 40, which often aligns with oversold conditions but can also signal persistent bearish momentum if the broader market context remains negative.
Conversely, a rebound of the RSI above 60—particularly if accompanied by rising volume—could hint at the beginning of a corrective rally. However, until XRP closes daily above $2.45 with strong on-chain and market support, the RSI alone cannot be relied upon to signal a bottom.
10.4 Current Price and Volume Dynamics
10.4.1 Trading Just Above $2.20: The Fight for $2.00
By early June 2025, XRP’s price had settled just above $2.20. This proximity to the psychological $2.00 mark means that a sustained break below $2.00 could trigger significant stop orders, resulting in cascading selloffs. In May 2025, investors noted that repeated attempts to defend $2.00 had only marginally succeeded, and each rebound was met with diminishing volume.
If $2.00 support fails, the next major support zone lies between $1.85 and $1.90—levels also tested during March 2025 consolidation. A decisive breach of that zone could lead to a swift fall toward $1.60, the 2025 low reached in January.
10.4.2 Declining Trading Volume Signals Market Caution
Over the past month, XRP’s daily trading volume decreased by approximately 18%, dropping from about $1.2 billion in early May 2025 to below $1 billion by early June 2025 . Declining volume during a predominantly sideways-to-downward trading range suggests that fewer participants are willing to buy at current levels, and that selling interest might still linger.
In many technical analyses, falling volume during consolidation phases can precede more pronounced moves once a breakout or breakdown occurs. If XRP decisively closes below $2.00 on high volume, it could signal capitulation, drawing in more sellers eager to exit before deeper losses.
10.4.3 Key Resistance: $2.26–$2.32 and $2.45
On the upside, short-term traders are eyeing resistance between $2.26 and $2.32—ranges coinciding with early-May 2025 consolidation. Surpassing that area might pave the way to $2.45, which corresponds to mid-May 2025 highs. According to Mitrade, a clean break above $2.45 on sustained volume could shift the immediate narrative from bearish to neutral or even bullish on a short-term basis, potentially sparking a rally toward $2.65–$2.75.
However, without positive fundamental catalysts, such as bullish legal developments or a broader crypto market upswing, XRP’s ability to overcome $2.45 remains uncertain. Until then, traders may continue to use $2.26–$2.45 as a supply zone for selling into strength.
10.5 Broader Crypto Market Context
10.5.1 Bitcoin Dominance and XRP/BTC Dynamics
In May 2025, Bitcoin rallied to a new all-time high near $112,000, substantially outpacing XRP’s performance and many other altcoins. Against Bitcoin, XRP’s daily chart exhibited a death cross between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages on the XRP/BTC pair, further highlighting its relative underperformance. Over the 12 days preceding early June 2025, XRP declined against BTC in 10 sessions—an ominous sign for traders who track relative strength indexes between tokens.
Bitcoin’s ascent tends to draw capital away from altcoins during bull markets, and XRP’s struggles illustrate this dynamic. In periods when BTC dominance surges above 55%, many altcoins—particularly those lacking unique utility—often underperform. For XRP, whose utility centers on remittance settlement and enterprise use-cases, its fate becomes intertwined with broader adoption of blockchain-based cross-border payment solutions, which remain in early stages.
10.5.2 Macro Factors: Fed Policy and Moody’s Credit Rating Downgrade
Macroeconomic headwinds in early 2025 have also impacted risk asset appetite. The Federal Reserve signalled in late May 2025 that it expected to cut interest rates only once in 2025, tempering hopes for ongoing liquidity support. That stance weighed on speculative investments, including cryptocurrencies.
Simultaneously, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating in May 2025, injecting additional uncertainty in global financial markets. Historically, rate-cut hopes—paired with inflation concerns—have either driven safe-haven flows into gold or pushed risk-on assets when investors perceive that central banks will maintain accommodative stances. In May and early June 2025, XRP’s downward drift reflects how macro headwinds can amplify technical bearishness, even for tokens with unique utility propositions.
10.5.3 Regulatory Developments and Ripple’s Legal Saga
Ripple’s legal battle with the U.S. SEC remains a major driver of XRP’s sentiment. In late May 2025, a federal judge granted Ripple partial relief regarding the sale of certain XRP tokens to international customers, a decision that briefly lifted XRP to $2.45 before sellers reasserted control. Such mixed legal news—while not as dire as a complete SEC victory, nor as bullish as a total dismissal—creates a seesaw environment.
Regulatory clarity is gradually emerging. The recently formed SEC Digital Asset Working Group, led by Hester Peirce, is reexamining token classification and organizing roundtables on tokenization and DeFi, potentially paving the way for clearer guidelines that could benefit XRP and other established tokens. Meanwhile, positive developments in crypto hubs like Dubai—where Ripple USD just secured key approvals—signal that XRP’s utility may expand in non-U.S. jurisdictions.
10.6 Potential Price Targets and Scenarios
10.6.1 Bearish Scenario: Breach of $2.00 Leading to $1.10–$1.85
If the 23-day/200-day death cross continues to weigh heavily and XRP decisively breaks below $2.00 on strong sell volume, the immediate risk is a drop toward the $1.85–$1.90 support range, which was last tested in March 2025. Sellers who view $2.00 as a key level may accelerate their exits, creating a rush to get out before the price hits $1.85.
Should $1.85–$1.90 fail to hold, the inverse cup-and-handle pattern project target sits near $1.10—representing a roughly 50% decline from $2.20. A breach of $1.10 could set the stage for a retest of XRP’s January 2025 low near $1.60. In this scenario, short-term traders should maintain tight stop-loss orders below $1.85 and reduce position sizes to 1–2% of portfolio value to manage risk effectively.
10.6.2 Neutral Scenario: Sideways Consolidation Between $2.00 and $2.30
In a neutral outcome, XRP holds $2.00 support and remains range-bound between $2.00 and $2.30 for the next few weeks. During such consolidation, daily trading volumes might stay low, and both moving averages (23-day and 50-day) could flatten. In this environment, the RSI may hover between 45 and 55, reflecting indecision among participants.
Range traders may buy near $2.00 and sell near $2.30, but longer-term holders might wait for clearer signals—either a break below $2.00 to scale out or a rise above $2.30 to add new positions. On-chain analytics—such as steady whale accumulation or rising network activity—could offer hints about which direction may prevail.
10.6.3 Bullish Scenario: Reclaiming $2.45 and Rally Toward $3.00
For a bullish reversal, XRP must reclaim and close daily above the $2.26–$2.32 resistance band, with the ultimate hurdle being $2.45. If XRP clears $2.45 on robust volume, technical analysis suggests a renewed uptrend aiming for $2.65–$2.75, and potentially $3.00 if momentum sustains. Positive catalysts might include favorable legal rulings in the SEC case, renewed institutional interest (e.g., banks pilot testing Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity product), or bright on-chain metrics such as higher transaction volumes and increasing on-chain liquidity.
It is worth noting that after similar death crosses in mid-2020, XRP experienced a strong rally that saw it rise by over 850% by April 2021. While macro conditions differ in 2025, the precedent indicates that crypto markets often experience rapid reversals when bullish catalysts accumulate. Consequently, traders looking for rebound opportunities should watch for institutional accumulation signals—like large off-exchange transfers to cold storage—and monitor on-chain metrics to confirm that buying pressure is genuine.
10.7 Practical Implications for Investors and Traders
10.7.1 Risk Management: Leveraging Stop-Loss and Position Sizing
Given the heightened likelihood of more downside, traders should consider placing tight stop-loss orders near critical support levels (e.g., $1.85) to limit losses. Leveraged positions, especially built with margin, risk forced liquidations if XRP slips below $1.90–$1.85. Therefore, maintain prudent position sizing: no more than 2–3% of total portfolio value allocated to XRP at current levels. For investors employing a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy, plan to purchase small increments only if XRP is below $2.20, with the expectation that it might revisit $1.85 or lower before a definitive bottom forms.
10.7.2 Monitoring Key Technical and On-Chain Indicators
Beyond tracking moving averages and RSI, investors should keep a close eye on on-chain metrics. Monitor net exchange flows: an uptick in tokens moving to exchanges often indicates potential selling, while significant off-exchange transfers (e.g., whales to cold wallets) suggest accumulation. Additionally, track token burn rates: XRP’s burn rate plummeted by 41% in June 2025, which may signal reduced supply pressure if linked to fewer transactions being “destroyed”. Observing these metrics alongside volume and price action can provide an early warning of either capitulation or accumulation.
10.7.3 Staying Informed on Legal and Regulatory Developments
Ripple’s SEC lawsuit remains an overarching factor. Any major developments—such as an appeal ruling or a final settlement—could drastically alter XRP’s trajectory. Market participants should follow court filings closely, as well as statements from Ripple Labs and regulatory agencies. In addition, track global regulatory trends: friendly jurisdictions like Dubai have recently approved Ripple USD, potentially boosting enterprise partnerships. Conversely, negative regulatory news (such as stricter token classification in major economies) could weigh on XRP and broader altcoin sentiment.
10.7.4 Diversification and Alternative Crypto Opportunities
Given XRP’s elevated downside risk, readers interested in exploring new crypto assets or supplementary revenue streams might consider allocating a portion of their speculative capital to projects exhibiting stronger technical and on-chain fundamentals. For instance, Layer-2 Ethereum solutions (like Optimism or Arbitrum) have shown sustained growth in TVL (Total Value Locked), and certain DeFi tokens have reported upward momentum in user and transaction metrics. Emerging Layer-1 blockchains—such as Sui and Aptos—continue to attract developer activity, making them potential sources of outsized returns if broader adoption accelerates. By diversifying across assets with favorable relative strength indicators, investors can hedge against XRP’s short-term volatility while capturing emerging crypto trends.
10.8 Broader Crypto Market Trends and Their Relevance
10.8.1 Institutional Adoption: BlackRock and Beyond
The institutional wave continues to reshape the crypto landscape. In May 2025, BlackRock stunned markets by moving $561 million worth of Bitcoin into its spot ETF—an indicator of growing mainstream acceptance of crypto as an asset class. Although that event primarily concerned Bitcoin, institutional capital has a tendency to trickle down into major altcoins such as XRP, especially when regulatory clarity appears to improve. Whales have been gradually hoarding XRP off-exchange since late May 2025, suggesting that large holders may view the current price dip as a buying opportunity.
At the same time, major custodians and financial service providers (e.g., BitGo, Coinbase) have begun facilitating institutional-grade custody of XRP. Should more asset managers and hedge funds receive regulatory green lights, demand for XRP could rebound, offsetting short-term technical bearishness.
10.8.2 Regulatory Clarity: U.S. vs. Global Hubs
Regulatory frameworks continue to evolve. In the U.S., the SEC’s propensity to classify tokens as securities has clouded the outlook for many altcoins. However, progress on token classification guidelines—spearheaded by the SEC’s Digital Asset Working Group—suggests that more nuanced regulations may emerge in 2025 and 2026. In contrast, crypto-friendly jurisdictions like the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) have moved ahead, granting approvals to Ripple USD and other tokenized assets. Such divergent regulatory paths create arbitrage opportunities: projects restricted in the U.S. may thrive elsewhere, and XRP’s global footprint could expand in response.
10.8.3 On-Chain Metrics: Burn Rate, Liquidity, and Developer Activity
Beyond price-centric analysis, on-chain metrics provide crucial insights. XRP’s burn rate—a measure of tokens permanently removed during transactions—dropped by 41% in early June 2025, which some interpret as reduced token supply destruction and potentially higher circulating supply in the near term. While lower burn rates can alleviate scarcity-driven rallies, they also suggest that network usage has slowed, prompting questions about long-term demand.
Liquidity metrics—such as the ratio of XRP on centralized exchanges to total supply—also matter. As of June 2025, crypto data aggregators reported that XRP’s exchange reserves had fallen to multi-month lows, indicating that tokens are moving off exchanges into private wallets. This accumulation by whales could foreshadow future price support. Lastly, tracking developer activity—such as GitHub commits and new protocol integrations—helps gauge whether XRP’s underlying technology continues to evolve. A surge in developer engagement often precedes growth in network utility and adoption.
10.9 Conclusion: Balancing Caution and Opportunity
XRP stands at a critical juncture. The emergence of a 23-day/200-day death cross, compounded by an inverse cup-and-handle pattern and declining volume, suggests that bearish momentum could intensify. Should XRP fall below the psychological $2.00 level, traders risk a swift drop to the $1.85–$1.90 support zone, with a further breakdown potentially targeting $1.10. However, the technical narrative is not set in stone. A successful reclaiming of the $2.26–$2.45 resistance band—supported by sustaining daily closes above these levels on healthy volume—could invalidate immediate bearish bias and usher in a rally toward $2.65 and beyond.
From a practical standpoint, investors and traders must employ disciplined risk management—using stop-loss orders near $1.85 and limiting position sizes to 2–3% of portfolio value—while continuously monitoring key technical indicators (moving averages, RSI), on-chain metrics (burn rate, exchange flows), and fundamental catalysts (legal rulings, regulatory clarity). Moreover, diversification into projects with stronger relative strength metrics—such as Ethereum layer-2 solutions and emerging Layer-1 blockchains—can help balance potential downside if XRP’s technical support zones fail.
Broader crypto market trends, including institutional adoption exemplified by BlackRock’s Bitcoin purchases and XRP’s declining exchange reserves, signal that underlying demand for digital assets persists. Regulatory divergences—particularly between U.S. uncertainty and crypto-friendly jurisdictions like Dubai—underscore the importance of a global perspective. Ultimately, while XRP’s short-term outlook appears sketchy, the token’s broader utility in remittances, cross-border payments, and enterprise blockchain solutions suggests that patient investors who navigate current volatility with informed strategies may benefit from a potential rebound.
In conclusion, the immediate formation of a death cross on XRP’s chart calls for caution: prepare for possible dips toward $1.85–$2.00, manage risk carefully, and keep an eye on market-moving events. Nevertheless, for those willing to study the charts, track on-chain metrics, and heed global regulatory developments, the current environment could present an opportunity to accumulate XRP—and possibly uncover the next level of upside when bullish catalysts align.
