Main Points :
- Chris Larsen, co-founder of Ripple Labs, has realised over US $764 million in profits from XRP sales since 2018.
- These sales tend to occur near local price peaks, reinforcing concerns that large insider disposal is impacting price potential.
- The XRP/USD pair is now trading roughly 34 % below its July 2025 high of US $3.66, reflecting heightened downside risk.
- Key technical levels: reclaiming the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at about US $2.60 is critical; resistance exists near US $2.74-2.80 (50-day SMA) and US $2.94 (100-day SMA).
- On-chain and market-structure signals: selling pressure from large holders remains elevated; meanwhile, bullish divergence in RSI and potential MACD crossover hint at a possible relief rally if buying momentum returns.
1. Insider Sales and Market Sentiment
Since January 2018, Chris Larsen’s realised profits from XRP sales have climbed sharply to more than US $764 million. Blockchain-analytics firm CryptoQuant, via analyst J.A. Maartunn, notes that Larsen has a “habit of cashing out near local highs.”
For market participants hunting new assets or seeking yield via blockchain use-cases, this behaviour introduces a psychological and structural risk. When a major early insider continues to liquidate at favourable levels, smaller or later investors risk becoming the “exit liquidity.” On-chain tracking shows recent large movements—including a 50 million XRP transfer tied to Larsen’s investment in Evernorth XRP—which his wallet later confirmed as part of a corporate vehicle rather than pure sales, but the pattern resembles prior cash-outs.
Thus for an investor or blockchain application builder looking at XRP as a base layer or yield platform, it is important to factor in not just the token-economics and utility, but also the concentrated supply risk and insider bias.
2. Price Action and Technical Benchmarks
XRP’s price slump—currently about 34 % below its July 2025 high of US $3.66—underscores the downside risk environment. From a technical perspective, traders are closely watching:
- The 200-day SMA (~US $2.60) as a pivot point for trend reversal.
- The 50-day SMA (~US $2.74-2.80) and 100-day SMA (~US $2.94) as medium-term resistance levels.
- Indicators such as RSI showing bullish divergence (price falling, RSI rising) and a possible upcoming MACD bullish crossover.
Failure to reclaim the US $2.60 level could pave the way for deeper correction zones. Indeed, some sources warn of support near US $2.30 or even below if selling momentum accelerates.
For those in the blockchain-application or yield-seeker category, this suggests that while the utility case might remain intact, timing entry is critical—not just on fundamental adoption, but on technical structure and market sentiment.
3. Supply, Whale Behaviour and Ecosystem Dynamics
Beyond insider sales, the broader supply dynamics for XRP reflect stress. Large-wallet outflows, especially into exchanges, continue to signal distribution rather than accumulation. For example, recent reports cite whale transfers exceeding US $50 million daily during periods of decline.
Additionally, derivatives metrics paint a cautious picture: open interest (OI) in XRP futures has dropped markedly (e.g., from ~US $8.36 billion to ~US $3.76 billion) and funding rates have turned negative, indicating short-bias among traders.
For a developer or project considering integration of XRP (for example as a bridge token, cross-border rail, or DeFi component), the takeaway is: even if the utility is strong, the token’s price action and large-holder behaviour may pose headwinds to adoption, or create heightened risk during distribution phases.
4. Utility, Adoption Signals and Contrarian View
Although this piece emphasises caution, it is important not to dismiss XRP’s broader ecosystem potential. The token remains integral to Ripple Lab’s global payment and on-demand-liquidity efforts, and initiatives like Evernorth (which Larsen invested in) aim to plug XRP into DeFi capital-markets infrastructure.
Furthermore, analysts note that periods of heavy insider selling often precede transitions in market phase—either bottoming consolidation or a washout ahead of a new cycle. For example:
- The RSI divergence and MACD setup suggest a potential early stage rebound.
- The fact that supply on exchanges has dropped 3 % in October may imply reduced immediate selling pressure.
Thus, for an investor focused on “next new asset” or yield opportunity via blockchain, XRP could still merit monitoring—but with a condition: entry timing should account for supply-side risk, insider disposal patterns, and technical confirmation.
5. Practical Implications for Blockchain Practitioners
For those building applications or seeking yield strategies with XRP involvement, consider the following:
- Token-economics clarity: Monitor insider holdings, large wallet moves, and release schedules. Concentration risk is elevated for XRP.
- Pricing risk: If your model assumes token-appreciation or network effects, be prepared for scenarios where price remains stagnant due to large-holder selling.
- Utility focus: Emphasise real-world use-cases (payments, rail, liquidity pools) rather than speculative token gains. If the application is strong, token price pullbacks may represent entry opportunity.
- Layer-2 / DeFi integration: Projects such as Evernorth suggest that institutional infrastructure around XRP is evolving; positioning early within such frameworks may yield architectural advantage even if token price lags.
- Risk management: Because XRP remains under supply-shock and insider-selling pressure, strategies should include stop-losses, time-based reviews, and alternative token plans if the trend fails to reverse.
Conclusion
The recent revelation that Chris Larsen has realised over US $764 million in profits from XRP sales since 2018 is more than just headline-grabbing—it underscores structural risk in the XRP ecosystem that both yield-seeking investors and blockchain practitioners must recognise. While the token retains meaningful utility in cross-border payments and DeFi infrastructure, the combination of insider disposition, large-holder outflows, and technical weakness implies that timing matters significantly.
For projects and investors seeking to align with the “next new crypto asset” or practical blockchain use-case, XRP remains on the watch-list—but not yet a clear buy-and-forget. A scenario in which XRP reclaims US $2.60 (200-day SMA) convincingly, large-holder selling moderates and real-world activity accelerates could mark the turning point. Until then, managing expectations around token appreciation and designing application-models that do not rely solely on speculative upside will be prudent.
