Main Points:
- Institutions maintain a 57% share in BTC/ETH OTC spot volume, driven by ETFs and structured accumulation.
- Retail exposure to BTC/ETH fell from 46% to 37%, shifting toward speculative altcoins and meme tokens.
- TradFi OTC volume grew 32% YoY, fueled by regulatory developments like GENIUS in the US and MiCA in the EU.
- Retail broker OTC volume rose by 21%, while crypto-native firms saw a 5% decline.
- OTC options volume surged 412%, and the diversity of CFDs doubled, improving capital efficiency for illiquid tokens.
- Meme-coin trading has decentralized: traditional names like DOGE and SHIB give way to niche tokens such as BONK, WIF, and POPCAT.
- Analysts highlight the pending decision on a DOGE spot ETF application by October 2025 as a potential catalyst for the retail market.
Institutional Focus on Macro Assets
Institutions continue to treat cryptocurrencies as macro assets, concentrating their trading on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). According to Wintermute’s mid-year report, the combined share of these two tokens in OTC spot volume remained stable at 57% in the first half of 2025. This steadfast allocation stems from inflows into spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and other structured accumulation products, offering institutions a familiar framework akin to traditional macro investing.
In parallel, TradFi players have ramped up their OTC spot trading, marking a 32% year-over-year increase. This uptick follows regulatory milestones such as the United States’ GENIUS (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins) Act and the European Union’s MiCA regulations, which have collectively emboldened large financial institutions to deepen their crypto allocations.
Retail Shift to Speculative Tokens
While institutions stick to BTC and ETH, retail investors are increasingly allocating capital to altcoins and meme coins. Wintermute’s data shows retail BTC/ETH exposure declined from 46% in H1 2024 to 37% in H1 2025. The freed-up capital is flowing into newer and more speculative tokens, driven by the promise of outsized gains and the excitement around innovative projects.
Retail OTC broker volume climbed 21% year-over-year, reflecting growing demand for on-ramps into these niche assets. Conversely, crypto-native OTC desks saw a 5% drop in trading volume as retail participants diversified away from established tokens.
Explosion in Derivatives Activity
Institutional players have not only increased spot trading but also embraced derivatives for hedging and yield generation. OTC options volumes skyrocketed by 412% compared to H1 2024, highlighting a surge in appetite for customizable risk profiles. In addition, the range of Contracts for Difference (CFDs) has doubled, granting participants capital-efficient access to illiquid tokens without directly holding the underlying assets.
This expansion of derivatives instruments suggests a maturing market, where sophisticated trading strategies complement traditional buy-and-hold approaches.
Decentralization of Meme-Coin Trading
Meme coins have increasingly diversified, moving beyond household names. While Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) once dominated retail trading, interest has shifted toward niche tokens like Bonk (BONK), Dogwifhat (WIF), and Popcat (POPCAT). The number of distinct tokens traded by individual investors has doubled, signaling robust demand for micro-cap assets at the long tail of the market.
Looking Ahead: The DOGE ETF Decision
Wintermute’s analysts urge market watchers to monitor the outcome of the Dogecoin spot ETF application, expected by October 2025. A green light could set a precedent for alternative asset ETFs, potentially reshaping retail participation and catalyzing further institutional interest in innovative tokens.
Conclusion
The crypto market is unmistakably polarized. Traditional financial institutions consolidate around Bitcoin and Ethereum as macro assets, leveraging both spot and derivatives markets for strategic exposure. At the same time, retail investors chase the next big opportunity among altcoins and meme tokens, fueling robust trading volumes outside of mainstream cryptocurrencies. As regulatory clarity advances with GENIUS and MiCA, and the pending Dogecoin ETF decision looms, both segments of the market may find new inflection points to redefine their strategies.
