Bitcoin has staged a modest rebound in mid-June, climbing about six percent over the past week and stabilizing near the $65,000 mark after two consecutive weeks of declines. Behind this recovery lies a striking on-chain development: long-term holders now control nearly four-fifths of the circulating supply, a record high that analysts suggest could signal the final stages of the bear market.
K33 Research, a cryptocurrency analytics firm, reported on June 16 that 79 percent of Bitcoin’s supply is currently locked in the hands of long-term investors. Analyst Vetle Lunde described this as evidence of steady accumulation and improving sentiment among committed holders. He emphasized that the current level of supply retention reflects confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value, even as short-term volatility persists.
The data also shows that coins held for at least two years are being reintroduced into the market at historically low levels. As of June 6, only 218,421 Bitcoin had been moved from long-term custody, the lowest figure since 2012. This marks a sharp decline from the 1.18 million coins that were reintroduced during the same period in 2024. The reduction in selling pressure from long-term holders suggests that the market may be entering a phase of stability, where patient investors are unwilling to part with their assets despite price fluctuations.
Historically, bear markets have coincided with an increase in the share of long-term holders. As prices fall, speculative traders exit, leaving committed investors to accumulate. K33 notes that this pattern has often preceded market bottoms, reinforcing the idea that the current environment could mark the end of the downturn.
Lunde also pointed out that about half of the circulating supply is currently held at a loss. Such conditions, he explained, have typically been observed only in the final stages before a market bottom. This combination of record long-term holding and widespread unrealized losses paints a picture of a market that may be nearing capitulation, a stage often followed by recovery.
Yet sentiment remains divided. Firms such as Wintermute and Glassnode have cautioned against declaring the bear market over. They argue that inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, stablecoin expansion, and institutional demand remain insufficient to confirm a sustained shift. Some analysts even warn of a possible retracement toward $50,000 if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate.
Recent market activity has been influenced by broader financial and geopolitical developments. SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO, which briefly pushed the company’s valuation above $2.5 trillion after a 28 percent surge in its first two trading sessions, contributed to a wave of optimism across risk assets. Similarly, reports of progress toward a peace framework between the United States and Iran lifted equities and improved investor sentiment, creating spillover effects in crypto markets.
Macroeconomic policy remains a critical driver. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted on June 17 to keep interest rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. The meeting marked Kevin Warsh’s first appearance as Federal Reserve Chair, and while rates are projected to remain stable in the near term, the Fed’s dot plot shows that nine of eighteen officials expect at least one rate cut in 2026, with six anticipating multiple reductions.
K33 highlighted Bitcoin’s sensitivity to these developments. Lunde noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 stood at 0.6, reflecting a relatively strong linkage between the two assets. He warned that changes in Federal Reserve communications could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price, particularly during periods of market stress.
Despite the rebound, Bitcoin remains well below its highs. As of June 17, the asset was trading near $65,000, up 5.5 percent over the week but still down about 16 percent from its mid-May peak of $79,000. It also remains 40 percent below its all-time high of roughly $126,000 reached in October 2025.
The current environment illustrates the tension between long-term conviction and short-term uncertainty. On-chain data suggests that committed holders are tightening their grip, reducing selling pressure and signaling confidence in Bitcoin’s future. At the same time, macroeconomic risks and cautious institutional flows temper optimism, leaving the market at a crossroads.
Whether the record level of long-term holding marks the definitive end of the bear market remains to be seen. What is clear is that Bitcoin’s trajectory is increasingly shaped by both on-chain dynamics and external forces, from Federal Reserve policy to global geopolitical shifts. For now, the resilience of long-term holders stands out as a defining feature of the market, offering a potential foundation for recovery in the months ahead.
