Main Points：
- Standard Chartered Bank predicts Bitcoin could rise to $125,000 if Trump wins the upcoming U.S. election.
- Analyst Geoff Kendrick projects that Bitcoin will reach $73,000 by November 5, driven by political sentiment.
- A Trump victory is expected to lead to a 4% surge in Bitcoin initially, followed by an additional 10% rise in the following days.
- On the other hand, if Kamala Harris wins, Bitcoin is expected to experience a temporary dip but may rise to $75,000 by the year’s end.
- Cryptocurrency market heavily favors Trump, with significant bets placed on his win.
- Major players in the crypto world are divided, with some expressing confidence in Bitcoin’s future regardless of election outcomes.
Bitcoin’s Political Sensitivity
Bitcoin’s price is often influenced by global events, with elections in major economies having a notable impact. In this context, the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November is predicted to be a critical event for the cryptocurrency market. Political events, especially those surrounding the U.S. presidency, have historically contributed to volatility in financial markets, and Bitcoin is no exception.
Standard Chartered’s Bold Prediction
According to Standard Chartered Bank’s leading analyst, Geoff Kendrick, a victory for Donald Trump in the November 2024 U.S. election could lead to a significant increase in Bitcoin’s value, potentially reaching $125,000 by the end of the year. This forecast is contingent on Trump securing not just the presidency but also the Republican Party winning the majority in Congress.
Kendrick projects that Bitcoin’s price will rise to around $73,000 before November 5, the election day. He predicts that if Trump is declared the winner, Bitcoin will see an initial 4% price jump. Following the victory, the cryptocurrency could experience another 10% surge in the following days, reflecting market confidence in a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies under Trump’s administration.
Political Influence on Bitcoin: The Trump Effect
Kendrick is not alone in his optimistic forecast for Bitcoin. Numerous voices within the cryptocurrency community have expressed their belief that a Trump victory could pave the way for unprecedented growth in Bitcoin’s price. The crypto market has shown strong alignment with Trump’s candidacy, especially due to his perceived leniency towards decentralized financial systems.
Bitcoin’s previous all-time high was $73,800, recorded in March 2024, and Kendrick’s projection that the price will reach $73,000 by election day aligns closely with this figure. The analyst believes that Bitcoin’s rally will coincide with increasing confidence in Trump’s victory, particularly as betting markets show a growing chance of his win.
Potential Impact of a Harris Victory
While a Trump victory might be seen as a positive for Bitcoin, Kendrick also explored the scenario in which Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election. In this case, he suggests that Bitcoin could experience a temporary dip, but it is expected to recover and reach $75,000 by the end of 2024. This more conservative projection stems from the market’s perception that Harris may be less favorable to cryptocurrency regulation.
Despite this, there are also indicators that the crypto market might adjust to a Harris presidency, given the increasing institutional interest in digital assets. Chris Larsen, co-founder of Ripple, has shown significant support for Harris, donating approximately $11 million in XRP to her campaign, reflecting the complex relationships between political candidates and the crypto industry.
Cryptocurrency’s Growing Political Role
As cryptocurrencies have gained popularity, their influence on the political landscape has grown, with significant investments being made by high-profile figures. For example, in the run-up to the 2024 election, a whale investor placed over $20 million in bets on Trump’s victory on the decentralized prediction market, Polymarket. This action not only reflects the confidence some investors have in Trump’s success but also highlights the increasing intersection between political outcomes and cryptocurrency markets.
On the other hand, some financial leaders, such as Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, have indicated that Bitcoin could see substantial gains irrespective of who wins the election. This perspective suggests that Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential remains strong, driven by broader trends in the global economy, including inflation concerns and the growing demand for decentralized financial solutions.
Divergent Opinions Within the Crypto Industry
The cryptocurrency community is not unanimous in its predictions. While some analysts like Kendrick believe in a strong correlation between Trump’s political success and Bitcoin’s price rise, others offer more tempered expectations. Bitwise Asset Management, for example, has projected a more conservative figure of $92,000 for Bitcoin in the event of a Trump victory.
Similarly, the cryptocurrency exchange Deribit has forecast that Bitcoin could reach $80,000 by the end of November 2024 if Trump wins. These estimates, though lower than Kendrick’s bold prediction of $125,000, still suggest that a Trump victory would result in a significant upward trajectory for Bitcoin.
Election’s Impact on Bitcoin’s Future
The U.S. presidential election in November 2024 is shaping up to be a critical moment for Bitcoin, with the outcome likely to influence market sentiment significantly. While Trump’s re-election could trigger a substantial rally, as projected by Geoff Kendrick and others, a Harris victory might lead to a slower but still positive growth trajectory for Bitcoin.
Investors and traders should keep a close eye on political developments, as the cryptocurrency market has become increasingly reactive to such events. However, Bitcoin’s long-term prospects remain bright, with many experts agreeing that its value is set to rise regardless of the election outcome, driven by broader economic trends and increasing institutional adoption.
In any case, for those seeking new revenue sources or interested in the practical applications of blockchain technology, the upcoming election will be a key moment to watch, potentially offering new opportunities in the cryptocurrency space.
