Main Points:
- Contrary to “Sell in May,” analysts recommend a “Hold in May” strategy for cryptocurrencies
- U.S. political developments under President Trump may catalyze fresh bullish momentum in Bitcoin
- Creation of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve signals institutional legitimacy and price support
- State-level adoption of Bitcoin reserve legislation accelerates decentralized acceptance
- Tariff-driven volatility in equities may highlight Bitcoin’s relative resilience
- Historical performance suggests Bitcoin often outperforms S&P 500 during periods of heightened risk
1. The “Hold in May” Thesis
While equity investors often heed the old adage “Sell in May and go away,” K33 analysts argue that cryptocurrencies—particularly Bitcoin—defy this seasonal pattern. In traditional markets, data show that the S&P 500 tends to underperform from May through October. However, the crypto market operates under different drivers, including technological innovation, regulatory shifts, and geopolitical events. Therefore, rather than liquidating positions, K33 recommends remaining invested through May to capture potential upside in the summer months.
In recent years, May has even been a period of consolidation for Bitcoin that precedes strong rallies in June and July. By maintaining exposure during what is often a quiet period for equities, long-term crypto holders position themselves to benefit from sudden spikes in market interest and institutional inflows.
2. The Trump Effect: Political Catalysts for Crypto
K33’s lead researcher Vetle Lunde and senior analyst David Zimmerman highlight the “Trump factor” as a key catalyst. Following his inauguration in January, President Trump issued multiple executive orders supportive of digital assets:
- Establishment of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, chaired by David Sacks, charged with proposing a federal regulatory framework by July 22, 2025.
- Directive to explore creation of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, leveraging up to 200,000 BTC seized by law enforcement.
This coordinated federal effort lends unprecedented legitimacy to Bitcoin. By placing digital assets within the scope of national economic strategy, U.S. authorities signal confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term role—potentially triggering fresh institutional demand.
3. Building a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
The March 6 executive order to develop a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve sends a powerful message: Bitcoin is no longer purely speculative. Instead, it is viewed as a strategic asset comparable to gold. Such a reserve could serve multiple purposes:
- Balance-sheet diversification: Governments can hedge against U.S. dollar debasement and inflation.
- Liquidity buffer: Seized assets, instead of being liquidated at once, can be deployed gradually to stabilize markets.
- Monetary innovation: Paves the way for tokenized sovereign assets and central bank digital currency (CBDC) experiments.
The potential activation of tens of thousands of BTC into official channels may underpin a robust price floor—and savvy investors may seek to accumulate ahead of any official reserve purchases.
4. State-Level Legislative Momentum
On May 7, New Hampshire became the first U.S. state to authorize creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve fund. This move follows earlier discussions in Arizona and Texas, where legislators have introduced similar bills. State-level adoption achieves several objectives:
- Regulatory laboratories: States can test Bitcoin reserve frameworks without requiring federal consensus.
- Competitive differentiation: States that embrace digital assets may attract fintech startups and jobs.
- Precedent for broader adoption: Success stories can be emulated by other states, reinforcing Bitcoin’s institutional pathway.
As more states approve reserve legislation, Bitcoin’s narrative shifts from fringe asset to mainstream financial instrument—fueling demand from local governments, pension funds, and sovereign wealth entities.
5. Tariff Turbulence vs. Crypto Stability
From February through early April, announcements of new U.S. tariffs undermined both equity and crypto markets. Yet Bitcoin’s drawdown in April was shallower than the S&P 500’s, reflecting its growing role as a non-correlated asset. Traditional equities may suffer prolonged weakness as tariffs impact corporate earnings and supply chains. Meanwhile, Bitcoin—untethered from trade flows—can maintain relative stability or even rally if investors seek safe-haven alternatives.
Analysts note that in 2024 and early 2025, Bitcoin’s monthly volatility profile diverged from equities:
- Lower correlation: Bitcoin’s price movements increasingly follow on-chain metrics rather than macroeconomic headlines.
- Asymmetric volatility: While occasional sharp sell-offs occur, Bitcoin’s recoveries tend to be more rapid and V-shaped compared to equities.
This resilience under circumstances of geopolitical or trade-driven stress reinforces the case for continued holding.
6. Historical Performance Patterns
Examining past market cycles reveals that Bitcoin often embarks on significant rallies during the Northern Hemisphere summer:
- 2017: Bitcoin rose from ~$2,400 in May to nearly $10,000 by July, driven by growing ICO mania and media attention.
- 2019: BTC climbed from $5,300 in May to $12,000 by July amid renewed institutional interest following Facebook’s Libra announcement.
- 2023: After consolidating around $26,000 in May–June, Bitcoin surged to $35,000 in August on the heels of spot ETF approvals.
While past performance does not guarantee future results, these precedents highlight a recurring seasonal bias. By retaining positions through May, investors can participate in potential summer rallies—especially when underpinned by novel catalysts like U.S. reserve initiatives.
7. Practical Strategies for Investors
To capitalize on the “Hold in May” thesis, investors should consider:
- Scaling into positions: If not already fully invested, accumulate gradually during early May dips to lower spot cost basis.
- Leveraging on-chain signals: Monitor metrics such as exchange inflows, active addresses, and network growth to time additional entries.
- Using derivatives for hedging: Employ options or futures to protect against downside while preserving upside exposure.
- Diversifying within crypto: Allocate to complementary assets (e.g., ETH, SUI, or Layer-2 tokens) that may display correlated rallies.
- Staying informed on policy updates: Track federal and state announcements regarding reserve purchases, as these may trigger sharp price moves.
By balancing patience with strategic accumulation, holders can navigate May’s often quiet market and position for potential summer outperformance.
Conclusion
In defiance of “Sell in May,” K33’s analysts advocate a “Hold in May” approach for Bitcoin, grounded in unique political and institutional catalysts. President Trump’s executive orders and the imminent design of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve lay the groundwork for renewed bullish momentum. Concurrently, state-level legislation in New Hampshire and others underscores a shifting regulatory landscape that increasingly embraces digital assets. As traditional markets grapple with tariff-induced uncertainty, Bitcoin’s resilience and historical summer performance bias make it an attractive store of value and growth vehicle. For investors scouting new crypto opportunities, holding through May may unlock participation in a potential summer rally—melding strategic patience with readiness for sudden policy-driven surges.
