Main Points：
- Downtrend Reversal Indicators: Despite recent declines, technical indicators suggest that Ethereum’s (ETH) downtrend may be coming to an end.
- Historical Patterns: Ethereum’s recent behavior echoes past episodes—after hitting a 16-month low around $1,755 on March 11, ETH rebounded, forming a potential double-bottom with a neckline around $2,104.
- Bullish Divergence: A divergence between price and the 50-day SMA histogram indicates that selling pressure is weakening.
- New Candle Formation: A set of three new bullish candles has emerged, signaling a possible reversal toward an upward trend with a potential next resistance near $2,400.
- Macro Factors Remain a Risk: While technical signals point to a recovery, external risks—such as potential tariff policies from President Trump—could still disrupt this trend.
1. Introduction: Signs of a Trend Reversal
Amid ongoing concerns over external macroeconomic risks such as the anticipated retaliatory tariffs by President Trump, Ethereum appears to be showing signs that its prolonged downtrend may be ending. After falling to a 16-month low of approximately $1,755 on March 11, ETH managed to hold this level as selling pressure eased—suggesting that sellers are starting to tire.
2. Formation of a Potential Double-Bottom
After hitting its low on March 11, Ethereum rebounded to around $1,880, then encountered resistance near a neckline at approximately $2,104. This formation hints at a classic double-bottom pattern. Should ETH break above this neckline, it could signal a bullish breakout, potentially paving the way for a rally toward the next target of around $2,400 as measured by moving average analysis.
3. Bullish Divergence on the Daily Chart
Recent analysis also reveals a bullish divergence on Ethereum’s daily chart. Although prices recently touched new lows near the March 11 level, the histogram tracking the difference between price and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) did not follow suit; instead, it reached higher lows. This divergence indicates that the momentum driving the downward trend is weakening, suggesting that the bearish phase may be losing its strength.
4. New Bullish Candlestick Formation
A significant signal came with the appearance of three new bullish candlesticks on the daily chart. Following a long downtrend that pushed prices as low as $2,000, these new candles—displayed as green bars—suggest a shift in market sentiment. While a similar bullish signal appeared briefly in early March and turned out to be a false start, the current pattern is accompanied by clear indications that the downward trend might be ending.
5. Macro Risks and Caution
Despite these promising technical signals, macroeconomic factors could still sway Ethereum’s trend. The possibility of broad-scale risk aversion—driven by President Trump’s upcoming tariff announcements—remains a significant concern. Should these external factors intensify, they might override the current bullish technical signals, potentially leading to further declines in ETH’s price.
6. Conclusion
The technical analysis of Ethereum suggests that the downtrend may be nearing its end. The formation of a double-bottom pattern around $1,755, the bullish divergence between price and the 50-day SMA, and the emergence of new bullish candlesticks indicate that selling pressure is waning. However, investors should remain cautious as macroeconomic risks, particularly related to impending tariff policies, continue to loom. Close monitoring of upcoming economic data and policy announcements will be crucial in determining whether Ethereum can successfully transition into a sustained upward trend.
