Main Points :
- Arthur Hayes and Tom Lee reaffirm bullish outlook: ETH could reach $10,000–$12,000 by end of 2025 despite recent volatility.
- Historical Q4 performance offers caution: average gain since 2016 is ~21%, which suggests a more modest target (e.g. ~$5,000) under ordinary conditions.
- Key upgrades (e.g. Pectra, staking changes) and institutional flows are structural tailwinds.
- On-chain signals, whale activity, and ETF/institutional interest are showing increased accumulation.
- Regulatory developments, tokenization momentum, and macro liquidity dynamics will heavily influence whether the price rally is sustained.
- Risks: macro headwinds, overextension, regulatory crackdown, and failure to scale.
Below is a full narrative combining summarization of the original Japanese article, recent updates, and a forward-looking view. Following it, the English will be translated fully into Japanese.
1. The Bold Prediction: $10,000+ ETH by Year End
In the original article, Arthur Hayes (co-founder of BitMEX) and Tom Lee (BitMaine chair) maintain their bullish thesis: Ethereum could climb from around $3,936 (at writing) to $10,000–$12,000 by year-end. The magnitude of such a move would represent a more-than-2.5× rally. Lee argues that ETH has just broken out of a long base built over four years, entering a new “price discovery” phase. The article also recounts ETH’s prior high of ~$4,878 in 2021 and its subsequent yardstick in trading ranges before recovering in part this year.
They acknowledge short-term volatility. For instance, the market recently saw a sharp liquidation event of roughly ¥3 trillion, during which ETH dropped from about $4,350 to near $4,100. Despite this, both maintain that short-term shock will not derail the macro trend.
However, the original article points out a caution: according to CoinGlass, since 2016 the average Q4 gain in ETH is ~21.36%. That would point to a year-end price far lower than $10,000 — more in the neighborhood of $5,000 or so. The critics say the bullish target rests on assumptions of accelerating institutional inflows and macro liquidity.
Lee also emphasizes institutional dynamics: BitMaine acquired ETH equivalent to 2.25% of total supply in 12 weeks, and ETH has drawn major institutional attention (e.g. inclusion in top holdings of ARK’s funds). This, he claims, is a sign that ETH is entering broader adoption phases.
2. Recent Developments & Reinforcing Signals
To assess whether the Hayes/Lee scenario is plausible, we turn to recent trends and data (2025).
2.1 Protocol Upgrades & Network Optimizations
One of the most important catalysts is the Pectra upgrade, activated May 7, 2025. This included 11 EIPs aimed at improving efficiency, reducing gas friction, and enhancing staking. Among them, EIP-7251 raised the staking limit per validator from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH, which allows consolidation and may reduce validator overheads and improve performance.
These upgrades potentially allow ETH to scale capacity, accommodate more demand, and maintain lower transaction costs under stress — factors that underpin bullish structural cases.
2.2 Institutional & Treasury Accumulation
- Q3 2025 saw record-level ETH accumulation by public companies. Nearly 95% of these entities’ total ETH holdings were acquired just within that quarter, a sign of concentrated buying.
- BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, reportedly added $22.46 billion in crypto exposure in Q3 2025, with a major share destined for Ethereum.
- The “Ether Machine,” a new vehicle backed by major crypto investors, is preparing to go public on Nasdaq with over 400,000 ETH on its balance sheet. This offers retail/institutional investors a regulated way to gain exposure to ETH.
- Standard Chartered raised its year-end ETH forecast to $7,500, citing increased demand, improved regulation (notably stablecoin law), and ETH becoming more central to transaction volume on the blockchain.
These flows and structural entries into ETH provide real substance behind what might otherwise appear as speculative optimism.
2.3 Market Reaction & Price Trends
- ETH currently trades above $4,100 (as of mid-October 2025) after recovering from earlier drawdowns following macro-driven sell pressure (e.g. tariff announcements).
- Analysts now model a year-end ETH range between $4,700 to $5,500 under moderate institutional momentum.
- Some bullish chartists see paths to $8,000 or even $13,000 in Q4 2025 if momentum gathers and institutional capital flows accelerate.
- However, short-term signals are mixed: whale movement and large transfers to exchanges have been observed, suggesting latent selling pressure.
- Hayes himself warned of a possible near-term 19% correction tied to weak U.S. employment data and macro stresses.
Thus, while the macro trend is supportive, the road is bumpy and vulnerable to macro shocks.
2.4 Regulatory & Tokenization Momentum
- The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is proposing to allow regulated funds to tokenize assets using public blockchains like Ethereum, thereby opening new use cases and institutional gateways.
- The maturation of spot Ethereum ETFs is expected to unleash further institutional liquidity into ETH.
- More broadly, there’s a wave of tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) being anchored to Ethereum, which reinforces ETH’s infrastructure utility.
- Ethereum is also making headway on privacy layers (e.g. integrations such as Railgun) that may attract further adoption for compliance and confidentiality.
These regulatory and infrastructure trends could shift ETH from speculative asset to core financial utility.
3. The Case for and Against a $10,000 ETH
3.1 Bull Case: Why It Could Happen
- Macro liquidity tailwinds: Hayes argues that massive credit expansion, deficit spending, and fiat debasement will push capital into non-sovereign assets.
- Institutional adoption + treasury strategies: More companies, funds, and ETFs are holding ETH, creating a structural floor in demand.
- Protocol resilience & scaling: Upgrades like Pectra help ETH handle higher throughput and may reduce friction.
- Network effect & stickiness: ETH’s developer ecosystem, DeFi dominance, and L2 adoption make it hard to displace.
- Regulatory unlocking: Tokenization, ETFs, and clearer stablecoin law reduce barriers to institutional participation.
If these forces align, ETH could undergo a “multiple expansion” cycle beyond just fundamentals.
3.2 Bear Case: Why It May Not Materialize
- Overly aggressive pricing target: Moving from ~$4,000 to $10,000 in ~2.5× is steep. The historical Q4 average (~21%) suggests a base case of $5,000–6,000 absent extraordinary catalyst.
- Macro headwinds: Rising interest rates, policy tightening, or a credit squeeze could dry up risk appetite.
- Regulatory backlash: Crackdowns or hostile regulation in key jurisdictions could frighten capital flows.
- Scaling failures or congestion: If ETH can’t scale adequately (even with upgrades), congestion or high gas fees may cap demand.
- Whale exit & overextension: Large holders moving into exchanges or profit-taking could trigger cascade corrections.
Thus, while possible, $10,000 ETH is not without significant tail risk.
4. Outlook & Strategic Implications
4.1 Likely Scenarios
- Base case (50–70% probability): ETH ends 2025 in the $5,500–$7,500 range, supported by institutional flows and gradual adoption.
- Bull case (20–30%): A confluence of macro liquidity, tokenization, ETF inflows, and momentum carry ETH to $10,000 or above.
- Bear or downside scenario (10–20%): Macro squeeze or regulatory shock pulls ETH back to $3,000–$4,000 territory.
4.2 Strategic Actions for Investors & Builders
- Staggered entries: Use dollar-cost averaging rather than trying to time a top.
- On-chain watchpoints: Monitor whale moves, exchange inflows/outflows, staking trends, and validator concentration.
- Focus on yield + utility: Don’t rely purely on price — yield from staking, rollups, liquid restaking, and DeFi use cases will matter.
- Explore tokenization & RWA bridges: Projects bridging real-world finance into Ethereum may be first to capture new capital flows.
- Diversify exposure: While ETH is central, keep optionality in promising L2s or adjacent ecosystems in case of paradigm shift.
Conclusion
Arthur Hayes’ bold ETH target of $10,000–$12,000 by year-end remains controversial but not impossible. The original article’s foundations — four-year base breakout, institutional accumulation, and structural growth — remain valid pillars. Recent developments lend additional support: major protocol upgrades (like Pectra), a surge of institutional/taxonomy flows, and regulatory tailwinds all deepen Ethereum’s narrative as more than just speculation.
Yet, prudence is required. A stretch move of 2.5×+ within months must contend with macro volatility, regulatory risk, and execution challenges. A more conservative approach suggests a likely range of $5,500–$7,500 for ETH by end-2025, with the possibility of surpassing $10,000 in the bull scenario.
For readers seeking new crypto opportunities or next-gen revenue streams, Ethereum continues to be a cornerstone — not only for speculative upside but for its infrastructure role in tokenization, DeFi, and institutional adoption. Whether $10,000 is realistic or aspirational, ETH’s trajectory offers compelling strategic options for active participants.
