Main Points:
- Doji Candle and Bullish Fractal: A weekly doji and a self-similar chart fractal hint at a potential rally toward $120,000–$125,000
- Breakout of Descending Trendline: Bitcoin broke above its June 6 downtrend after forming a $100,300 local bottom
- HODL Mode Revival: Spot volumes on centralized exchanges have plunged to multi-year lows, indicating accumulation by long-term holders
- Long-Term Holders Absorbing Supply: LTH wallets added over 605,000 BTC in the past 155+ days, offsetting short-term selling by STHs
- Whale Activity: A new whale opened a $54.5 million 20× long position at ~$106,538, signaling confidence in higher prices
- Institutional ETF Inflows: Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF saw a $22.8 million net inflow on June 7, underscoring growing institutional demand
1. Chart Patterns Signal a Bullish Breakout
Bitcoin’s weekly chart revealed a doji candle spanning June 2–6, characterized by a small real body and long upper and lower wicks. This formation indicates indecision between buyers and sellers and often precedes significant price moves. The absorption of liquidity below the candle suggests that selling pressure has diminished, laying the groundwork for upward momentum.
Supporting this, a bullish chart fractal—identified by on-chain analyst Krillin—mirrors the price action seen after the January 2024 spot ETF approval. This “God Candle” fractal historically forecasts trend reversals with approximately 70–80% accuracy, implying Bitcoin may soon accelerate past previous highs.
On the shorter timeframe, BTC formed a local bottom near $100,300 on June 6. The subsequent breakout above a descending trendline confirms a shift from bearish to bullish control. This technical breakout increases the probability of a re-test of the all-time high (~$69,000) and targets in the $110,000–$120,000 range.
2. Return of “HODL Mode” and Accumulation Dynamics
Parallel to technical signals, on-chain data reveals a marked return to “HODL mode.” Spot trading volumes on centralized exchanges have plunged to approximately $965.6 million, levels not seen since October 2020—just before the explosive bull run at year’s end. This divergence between high futures volume and low spot activity indicates that investors are choosing to accumulate rather than trade actively.
Further, long-term holders (LTHs)—wallets holding BTC for 155 days or more—have collectively added roughly 605,000 BTC since the last all-time high. Meanwhile, short-term holders (STHs) have offloaded about 592,000 BTC over the past 30 days, contributing to break-even selling among speculative traders. The simultaneous increase in supply held by LTHs and reduction of available coins on exchanges underscores a structural foundation for an enduring rally.
3. Whale Positions and Institutional Demand
Institutional and high-net-worth players are also showing up in force. A whale wallet opened a 20× long position worth $54.5 million at an average entry of $106,538 on June 9. Such concentrated leverage at current price levels reflects strong confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to sustain an upward trajectory toward and beyond the $110,000 threshold.
At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital. According to Farside Investors, Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF recorded a $22.8 million net inflow on June 7. These daily flows signal robust institutional engagement, providing a reliable source of buying pressure that can support and amplify price advances .
4. Macro and Sentiment Factors Bolster the Case
Bitcoin’s renaissance comes amid shifting macroeconomic and sentiment landscapes. Renewed optimism around US–China trade talks and bullish equity forecasts lifted risk-asset appetite, pushing Bitcoin up toward $108,000 as of June 10, 2025. Traders note that the asset is retesting key resistance levels—such as the 20-day EMA near $105,300—and preparing for a potential short squeeze that could liquidate up to $15 billion in open short positions on a 10% price uptick .
Despite lingering caution among professional desks—evident in high open interest in futures markets—Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional equities has shifted into a tailwind. The compressed volatility and dwindling volume on spot markets resemble the consolidation phase preceding the 2020 bull run, reinforcing the narrative that systemic accumulation is underway.
5. Price Projections: From $120,000 to $200,000 by Year-End
Analysts are setting ambitious targets. Cointelegraph contributors highlight a $120,000 rally guided by fractal patterns and doji confirmation. Meanwhile, Bitfinex strategists project up to $125,000 in June, with $150,000–$200,000 eyed by year-end, contingent on macro catalysts like Fed rate cuts and broader institutional adoption.
Technical patterns such as an inverted head-and-shoulders on the daily chart suggest a potential surge toward $146,892 if BTC can close above the $112,700 neckline. This formation, coupled with rising open interest in derivatives and continued ETF inflows, lays out a clear pathway for multi-legged rallies through Q3 and Q4 2025.
Conclusion
A confluence of technical breakouts, on-chain accumulation, whale leverage, and institutional capital flows is shaping a compelling bullish narrative for Bitcoin. The emergence of a weekly doji and fractal alignment, combined with the revival of “HODL mode” and record ETF inflows, suggests that Bitcoin is poised to challenge—and likely surpass—its previous all-time high in the coming weeks. While macro headwinds and profit-taking risks remain, the structural underpinnings—low spot availability, robust demand from LTHs and institutions, and potent whale positions—provide a sturdy foundation for a sustained bull run. Investors seeking new crypto assets, alternative revenue streams, and pragmatic blockchain applications should monitor these metrics closely, as they may signal optimal entry points ahead of what could be one of Bitcoin’s most significant rallies yet.
