Key Points:
- Procedural Vote Defeat (196–222): Motion to consider the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti‑CBDC Surveillance State Act fails, stalling all three measures.
- Internal GOP Rift: Freedom Caucus members oppose bundling bills and lack of CBDC ban, joining Democrats in voting no.
- Market Impact: Bitcoin dipped briefly to $115,967 then rebounded; Circle stock fell nearly 5% on news.
- Senate vs. House: GENIUS Act passed Senate 68–30 on June 17, 2025, but House conservatives demand added anti‑CBDC language.
- Outlook: Leadership plans to refile rules, possibly splitting bills. Final votes may shift to autumn 2025 or early 2026.
1. Procedural Vote Defeat Halts Debate
On July 15, 2025, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 196–222 against a procedural motion to open debate on three pivotal cryptocurrency bills: the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, and the Anti‑CBDC Surveillance State Act. This vote was necessary to set the “rule” for floor consideration, and its defeat effectively pauses all further action on these measures.
Despite being heralded by the White House as “Crypto Week,” the failure underscores the fragility of coalition-building in a narrow GOP majority. A similar attempt the following day also fell short, as leadership struggled to reconcile demands for a standalone stablecoin framework with conservative calls for a strict ban on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
2. GOP In-Fighting and the Freedom Caucus
The vote breakdown revealed that thirteen House Republicans defected, siding with Democrats to block the rule. Key dissenters, including members of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, objected to bundling multiple bills into a single package and criticized the absence of an explicit CBDC ban in the GENIUS Act’s text. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeted, “I just voted NO on the Rule for the GENIUS Act because it does not include a ban on Central Bank Digital Currency…” and decried the cutoff of amendment opportunities.
Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledged the internal conflict, stating that some members “insist it needs to be all in one package,” while President Trump and Senate leaders favored advancing the GENIUS Act in its current form. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise later suggested splitting the bills to secure a path forward.
3. Summary of the Three Bills
GENIUS Act
- Purpose: Establishes a comprehensive federal framework for stablecoins, aligning issuers like Circle and Paxos under uniform regulations.
- Support: Passed Senate 68–30 on June 17, 2025, with bipartisan backing and White House endorsement.
- Controversy: Lacks explicit prohibition of Fed‑issued CBDCs, prompting conservative pushback.
CLARITY Act
- Purpose: Mandates U.S. companies disclose dealings with foreign-government-linked entities, targeting money laundering and sanctions evasion via crypto.
- Status: Awaiting floor consideration pending passage of rules; Senate draft expected soon according to Senator Cynthia Lummis.
Anti‑CBDC Surveillance State Act
- Purpose: Prohibits Federal Reserve development of a digital dollar and ensures consumer privacy protections against government surveillance.
- Significance: Aimed at preserving financial privacy, it has become a rallying cry for libertarian-leaning Republicans.
4. Market Reactions and Industry Implications
The procedural stall roiled markets briefly:
- Bitcoin: Fell to $115,967 before rebounding above $118,000 as hopes for revival persisted.
- Stablecoin Issuers: Circle’s shares dropped nearly 5% on declining confidence in regulatory progress.
- Equity Impact: Coinbase and Marathon Digital fell around 2%, while Eth prices rose 7% amid broader crypto optimism fueled by Trump’s public support.
Industry groups have invested heavily in advocacy: pro‑crypto PACs spent $245 million in 2024, retaining $141 million for 2026 election efforts. Treasury projections suggest a federal stablecoin framework could unleash a market exceeding $2 trillion.
5. Exchange Rate Context: USD/JPY Trends
Financial readers should note the yen’s recent weakness, affecting on‑shore crypto investment cost calculations. As of July 17, 2025, the USD/JPY rate held at approximately ¥148.44 per $1, near a one‑year low.
| 日付 | USD/JPY (終値) |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-10 | 146.19 |
| 2025-07-11 | 146.83 |
| 2025-07-14 | 147.32 |
| 2025-07-15 | 148.28 |
| 2025-07-16 | 148.76 |
| 2025-07-17 | 148.44 |
Figure 1: USD/JPY Exchange Rate Trend (July 10–17, 2025)
(See chart above)
6. Path Forward: Splitting and Negotiations
House leadership is preparing to refile the rule package, potentially decoupling the bills to satisfy Freedom Caucus demands. Options include:
- Splitting the GENIUS Act alone for expedited debate.
- Attaching the Anti‑CBDC Act to must‑pass legislation like the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).
- Sequential Floor Votes to secure passage of simpler measures first.
With Congress entering recess in early August, the earliest realistic timelines for renewed votes are in the fall of 2025 or as late as early 2026, risking protracted uncertainty for stablecoin issuers and blockchain ventures.
Conclusion
The July 196–222 procedural defeat marks a significant hurdle for U.S. crypto policy, revealing deep fissures within the Republican majority. While the Senate‑passed GENIUS Act awaits House reconciliation, conservative insistence on an anti‑CBDC stance has complicated the legislative path. Market volatility reflects this legislative gridlock, underscoring the need for clear rules to integrate digital assets into mainstream finance. As leadership weighs splitting the bills and leveraging must‑pass packages, industry stakeholders should prepare for continued delays, adapting strategies for compliance and market entry amid this evolving regulatory landscape.
