Main Points:
- Trade War Concerns: Some analysts predict that both traditional and cryptocurrency markets will remain under pressure at least until early April due to fears of retaliatory tariffs amid an escalating international trade war.
- Whale Activity in ETH: While some traders blame large investors (“whales”) for market declines, Nansen analyst Nikolai Sondergoh explains that these whales are merely taking positions on both sides of the market. In fact, whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH are actively accumulating, even as other market segments are selling off.
- On-Chain Data: According to Glassnode, the number of addresses holding at least US$100k worth of ETH increased from just over 70,000 on March 10 to more than 75,000 by March 22. However, during the December 8, 2024, peak when ETH surpassed US$4,000, this number exceeded 146,000.
- Long-Term Outlook: Despite short-term volatility, investor sentiment remains optimistic for the latter half of 2025. VanEck forecasts that ETH could reach US$6,000 and Bitcoin (BTC) might climb as high as US$180,000 by 2025.
1. Market Pressure from International Trade Concerns
Amid rising concerns over retaliatory tariffs linked to an international trade war, several analysts believe that both traditional and crypto markets may experience continued pressure until at least early April. These trade tensions are contributing to broader market uncertainty and have led many investors to adopt a cautious stance. While some traders have been quick to blame large investors—or “whales”—for recent market downturns, the reality appears to be more nuanced.
2. The Role of ETH Whales: Accumulation Versus Selling
Nansen’s research analyst Nikolai Sondergoh addressed this issue on the “Chainreaction” show on X (formerly Twitter) on March 21. He noted, “Whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH are actually accumulating, while other segments are selling.” This suggests that, rather than orchestrating a deliberate sell-off, large investors are positioning themselves strategically by both buying and selling depending on market conditions. Their active accumulation, even during periods of price decline, indicates a belief that ETH is undervalued in the short term.
3. On-Chain Data Signals
Supporting Sondergoh’s observations, on-chain data from Glassnode reveals that the number of addresses holding at least US$100k in ETH increased from slightly over 70,000 on March 10 to more than 75,000 by March 22. Although this figure is lower compared to when ETH peaked above US$4,000 on December 8, 2024—when the number of such addresses exceeded 146,000—the recent increase points to renewed accumulation by more serious investors. This trend could act as a solid foundation for future price recovery, even as short-term volatility continues.
4. Long-Term Optimism for ETH and BTC
Despite the current market pressures driven by international trade concerns, many investors remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for digital assets. VanEck has forecasted that ETH could reach US$6,000 and Bitcoin might hit US$180,000 by 2025. These projections underscore a belief that the recent downturns are temporary and that once the external pressures, such as trade-related uncertainties, subside, the underlying strength of these assets will drive significant appreciation over the medium to long term.
5. Conclusion
In summary, while fears of retaliatory tariffs amid an international trade war may continue to pressure both traditional and cryptocurrency markets until early April, this environment appears to be prompting strategic positioning among large investors. According to Nansen analyst Nikolai Sondergoh, ETH whales are actively accumulating despite short-term selling by other market participants. On-chain data further supports this trend, showing an increase in addresses holding significant amounts of ETH. Coupled with optimistic long-term forecasts from VanEck, these factors suggest that despite current volatility, a robust recovery may be on the horizon.
