Clearing the Path: Joe Lubin’s Vision for Ethereum to Surpass Bitcoin

Main Points:

• Ethereum’s Unique Value Proposition: Ethereum’s programmability, staking, and DeFi capabilities position it to overtake Bitcoin as the premier digital asset.
• SharpLink Gaming Investment: Consensys led a $425 million investment into SharpLink Gaming, with Joe Lubin assuming board chairmanship to build an ETH-centric corporate treasury.
• Institutional Staking and Regulatory Clarity: Recent SEC guidance classifying staking as non-security and the prospect of ETH-based ETFs are fueling institutional interest.
• On-Chain Metrics and Network Upgrades: Network upgrades (e.g., Shanghai, EIP-4844) and a high percentage of staked ETH demonstrate demand for ETH’s utility over BTC’s store-of-value narrative.
• Market Performance and Price Momentum: ETH’s 5 % surge to $2,616 on June 3, 2025 reflects growing institutional flows, while BTC hovers above $105,000 amid macroeconomic headwinds.
• Risks and Challenges: Volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and competition from Layer 2 solutions and rival smart-contract platforms remain potential roadblocks.
• Future Outlook: Projections for ETH reaching $3,000 in the short term and $6,000 by year-end underscore growing confidence in ETH’s long-term prospects.

Introduction: Context of Joe Lubin’s Announcement

On June 4, 2025, Crypto Troll published an article titled “ETHはBTCを超える” (“Ethereum Will Surpass Bitcoin”), reporting comments by Ethereum co-founder and ConsenSys CEO Joe Lubin. In a podcast interview, Lubin asserted that Ethereum’s diverse utility—ranging from staking to smart contracts—renders it uniquely positioned to outpace Bitcoin over time. He emphasized that institutional investors are increasingly favoring Ethereum’s on-chain infrastructure as they transition from legacy financial systems to blockchain-based solutions. This pronouncement coincided with ConsenSys’s leadership in a $425 million funding round for SharpLink Gaming, a publicly traded company planning to build its corporate treasury around Ethereum. Lubin’s new role as SharpLink’s chairman underscores a strategic shift away from traditional BTC-holding models toward active ETH utilization via staking, restaking, and risk-managed DeFi strategies.

Ethereum’s Unique Value Proposition

Unlike Bitcoin, which primarily functions as a store of value, Ethereum is a programmable blockchain supporting decentralized applications (dApps), smart contracts, and decentralized finance (DeFi). Lubin highlighted staking and smart-contract execution as differentiators that confer long-term superiority over Bitcoin’s limited scriptability. Ethereum’s transition to Proof of Stake (PoS) with “The Merge” in September 2022 markedly shifted ETH from a purely speculative asset to a yield-generating instrument through staking rewards. Institutional players seeking yield—and not merely price appreciation—are increasingly attracted to Ethereum’s staking ecosystem, where locked ETH secures the network and earns network fees and issuance rewards.

Moreover, the proliferation of DeFi protocols on Ethereum—Total Value Locked (TVL) exceeding $100 billion as of June 2025—exemplifies Ethereum’s utility beyond a medium of exchange. High-profile DeFi projects such as Aave, Uniswap, and MakerDAO continue to anchor liquidity on Ethereum, driving transaction volume and network fees. With the implementation of EIP-1559 in August 2021, Ethereum introduced a fee-burn mechanism that reduces circulating supply, adding a deflationary dimension to ETH’s economics. These technical features collectively enhance Ethereum’s appeal as a programmable, yield-bearing asset—a narrative that Lubin believes will ultimately eclipse Bitcoin’s store-of-value thesis.

SharpLink Gaming: A New ETH-Centric Corporate Treasury Model

ConsenSys orchestrated a $425 million investment into SharpLink Gaming, a Nasdaq-listed company, immediately after which Joe Lubin assumed the position of chairman. SharpLink intends to deploy this capital to develop an Ethereum-focused corporate treasury. Unlike Bitcoin’s conventional “HODL” strategy—where corporations hold BTC passively—SharpLink plans to leverage ETH through staking, restaking, and controlled DeFi engagements. This approach aims to generate ongoing yield rather than relying solely on price appreciation.

“SharpLink’s strategy diverges from the traditional corporate approach to holding BTC. We intend to put ETH to work—staking it, restaking it, and leveraging cutting-edge DeFi under strict risk-management protocols,” Lubin stated on the podcast.

In practical terms, SharpLink’s treasury will utilize multiple staking providers, including Lido, Rocket Pool, and ConsenSys’s own staking services, to lock up ETH and earn staking rewards. Simultaneously, a fraction of ETH reserves will be deployed into whitelisted DeFi protocols—governed by on-chain risk parameters—to generate additional yield. This “active treasury” model contrasts with the passive BTC accumulation strategy popularized by MicroStrategy and Tesla. By reallocating capital into ETH’s yield-bearing mechanisms, SharpLink seeks to amplify returns while demonstrating Ethereum’s multifaceted use cases to institutional audiences.

Institutional Staking and Regulatory Clarity

A pivotal factor underpinning Lubin’s thesis is regulatory clarity around staking. In May 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a statement affirming that staking does not constitute the sale of unregistered securities. This guidance alleviated legal uncertainties for institutional participants considering ETH staking programs. Between January and June 2025, institutional on-chain staking products saw inflows exceeding $4 billion, per CoinShares data. Leading financial firms are now in active discussions to launch ETH-based staking exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which would permit retail and institutional investors to gain staked ETH exposure without direct validator responsibilities.

Moreover, the prospect of a spot ETH ETF—mirroring several approved BTC ETFs—has captured market attention. Analysts note that a spot ETH ETF would likely catalyze additional inflows, similar to the BTC ETF performance in early 2025. The expectation of an ETF approval has already driven ETH’s spot price up by over 50 % during May 2025, despite broader crypto market headwinds. On June 3, 2025, Ethereum surged 5 %, trading at $2,616, a move attributed largely to institutional accumulation ahead of potential ETF announcements.

On-Chain Metrics and Network Upgrades

Staking Participation: As of June 2025, over 27 million ETH—roughly 22 % of total circulating supply—is staked on the Beacon Chain, generating an average annual yield of approximately 4.5 %. IntoTheBlock reports that 67 % of active ETH addresses are currently in profit, up from 58 % in early May 2025, indicating strong upward momentum.

Shanghai and Capella Upgrades: The Shanghai–Capella network upgrade, completed in April 2025, unlocked previously staked ETH, enabling validators to withdraw rewards and principal. This withdrawal feature has bolstered confidence in staking, as investors no longer face indefinite lock-ups. Network validators have begun withdrawing small batches of ETH, while new validators continue entering—driven by both retail and institutional demand.

EIP-4844 (“Proto-Danksharding”): Scheduled for late 2025, EIP-4844 aims to reduce Layer 1 transaction fees by introducing “blobs” of data for rollups. Analysts estimate that EIP-4844 could lower base fees by 30 % to 50 % once fully implemented, making Ethereum more scalable and cost-effective for DeFi and NFT platforms. Reduced gas fees are expected to further catalyze on-chain activity and attract developers from competing chains.

Deflationary Pressure: Since the implementation of EIP-1559, over 4 million ETH have been burned through the base-fee burn mechanism, reducing net issuance. As a result, Ethereum’s annual supply growth has contracted from 4.0 % pre-Merge to 0.2 % post-Shanghai. This shift from inflationary issuance to near-deflationary economics enhances ETH’s long-term value proposition relative to Bitcoin’s fixed supply yet non-yielding asset model.

Market Performance and Price Momentum

Ethereum’s price trajectory in early 2025 has outperformed most altcoins. After retesting the $2,300 support zone in late March 2025, ETH rallied above $2,700 by mid-May, driven by institutional inflows and improved staking yields. On May 28, 2025, ETH briefly touched $2,721—its highest level since March, marking a 5.15 % 24-hour increase. By June 3, 2025, ETH traded at $2,616, a 5 % uptick in a single day, reflecting renewed buying pressure from hedge funds and family offices. Analysts from Coingape forecast that ETH could breach $3,000 in June 2025 if accumulation trends persist.

Bitcoin, in contrast, has seen more muted gains. Despite setting a new all-time high of $111,814 on May 22, 2025, BTC has since consolidated around $105,000. Macro factors—such as Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations and equity market volatility—have tempered BTC’s upside. On June 2, 2025, BTC traded at $107,780, buoyed by institutional demand for non-correlated assets. However, some analysts warn that a breakdown below $108,000 could trigger profit-taking, potentially pushing BTC back toward $100,000 in the short term.

The relative strength of ETH versus BTC is underscored by the ETH/BTC ratio, which recently climbed above 0.025—its highest reading since January 2024. A rising ETH/BTC ratio signifies that ETH is outperforming BTC on a relative basis. If this trend holds, it validates Lubin’s thesis that Ethereum’s utility-driven model can generate superior returns over Bitcoin’s scarcity-driven paradigm.

Implications for Institutional Investors

Institutional asset managers and hedge funds are now revisiting their digital asset allocations. Whereas earlier frameworks allocated 80 % to BTC and 20 % to ETH, some are reversing that split—allocating 60 % to ETH and 40 % to BTC, or even more aggressively favoring ETH. This rotation is driven by two primary factors: yield and utility. ETH stakers currently earn a net yield (after protocol fees) of about 3.5 % annually—a compelling rate compared to near-zero yields on traditional fixed income. Additionally, ETH’s role in powering DeFi, NFT, and emerging tokenization platforms offers institutional treasurers a direct avenue to monetize blockchain services.

A client of a large asset manager remarked, “Bitcoin remains digital gold, but Ethereum has become a programmable yield machine. We see more paths to return generation than simply price appreciation.” The prospect of an ETH ETF further cements ETH’s institutional appeal. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that approval of a spot ETH ETF could catalyze $10 billion to $20 billion in inflows within the first three months, akin to BTC ETF trajectories in early 2025.

Furthermore, tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) on Ethereum—such as tokenized debt, real estate, and commodities—adds another layer of institutional interest. BlackRock’s exploration of tokenizing short-term U.S. Treasuries on Ethereum’s ledger exemplifies this trend. As tokenized RWAs gain traction, ETH’s utility as “gas” for smart contracts will increase, potentially elevating fee revenue and strengthening ETH’s value proposition relative to BTC’s more passive use case.

Technical and Fundamental Comparisons: Ethereum vs. Bitcoin

Risks and Challenges

While Ethereum’s utility is compelling, several risks temper its ascent:

1. Regulatory Uncertainty: Although the SEC’s staking clarification is positive, future rule-making (e.g., classification of ETH derivatives or new tokenized securities) could introduce compliance hurdles. International regulators—particularly the European Union’s MiCA framework—are still finalizing guidelines that may impact Ethereum’s DeFi and staking models.
2. Network Congestion and High Fees: Despite EIP-4844 efforts, gas fees remain elevated during peak activity. If high fees persist, users and developers might migrate to alternative Layer 1 or Layer 2 chains, diluting Ethereum’s network effects.
3. Competition from Rival Blockchains: Solana, Avalanche, and Polkadot continue to innovate with lower fees and faster finality. While Ethereum’s ecosystem is entrenched, significant developer fatigue could emerge if scalability issues linger.
4. Security Vulnerabilities: DeFi protocols built on Ethereum are prone to smart contract exploits. A major hack or systemic exploit—like a DeFi lending pool breach—could undermine confidence in Ethereum’s security.
5. Market Volatility: Cryptocurrencies are inherently volatile. A severe bear market or macroeconomic shock could decouple ETH’s price from its fundamentals, forcing institutions to liquidate positions and eroding confidence in active ETH strategies.

Recent Developments and Ecosystem Momentum

SEC Non-Security Staking Ruling: On May 15, 2025, the SEC unequivocally stated that ETH staking does not constitute the sale of unregistered securities—paving the way for institutional staking products. Following this, market-wide ETH staking participation surged, with validators increasing weekly by 12 %.

Potential Spot ETH ETF: Bloomberg Intelligence reported that multiple asset managers have filed preliminary documents for a spot ETH ETF, with expected approval by Q3 2025. ETFs would broaden retail and institutional access to ETH staking economics, potentially unlocking $10 billion – $20 billion in net inflows within three months post-approval.

DeFi TVL Growth: Total Value Locked (TVL) on Ethereum topped $100 billion as of May 2025, a 25 % year-to-date increase. Leading protocols such as Aave and Curve saw TVL growth of 18 % and 22 %, respectively, demonstrating sustained user demand. Migrations to Layer 2 solutions also rose; Arbitrum’s TVL jumped from $10 billion to $14 billion in the first half of 2025, reducing Layer 1 congestion.

NFT and Gaming Integrations: Gaming-focused blockchain projects like Immutable X and GameFi platforms continue to integrate closely with Ethereum. SharpLink Gaming’s investment is indicative of a broader trend where gaming companies use ETH to tokenize in-game assets and launch NFT-driven economies. Ubisoft’s strategic partnership with ConsenSys on Ethereum-based gaming assets exemplifies this shift.

Upgrade Progress and Sharding Timeline: Ethereum’s core developers confirmed that the EIP-4844 rollout will occur in Q4 2025, ahead of full sharding in 2026. This phased approach is designed to reduce data availability costs, making rollups more efficient and enabling 100,000+ transactions per second (TPS) across Layer 2 networks. The anticipated scaling enhancements are expected to drive additional developer interest and user adoption, cementing Ethereum’s dominance in smart contracts.

Comparative Use Cases: Ethereum vs. Bitcoin in Corporate Treasuries

Risks to Lubin’s Vision and Potential Counterarguments

1. Overemphasis on Staking Yields: Critics argue that staking yields—though attractive—are not guaranteed. Slashing risks and validator misconfigurations can reduce net yields. A major slashing event (e.g., a network-wide fork conflict) could erode confidence in staking as a stable return generator.
2. Concentration of Validator Power: As institutional staking pools grow, concerns about centralization arise. If a handful of entities control >50 % of staking power, network security and decentralization may be compromised, undermining Ethereum’s foundational ethos.
3. DeFi Counterparty Risks: While DeFi can amplify yields, protocols remain vulnerable to smart-contract bugs and oracle manipulation. A high-profile exploit in a protocol like Aave or Compound could trigger cascading liquidations, causing reputational damage to Ethereum’s yield ecosystem.
4. Regulatory Backlash Against DeFi: U.S. and EU lawmakers are scrutinizing DeFi’s anonymity and potential money-laundering vectors. Stricter KYC/AML requirements may stifle certain DeFi activities, reducing yield-generation avenues and complicating SharpLink’s treasury strategy.
5. Bitcoin’s Store-of-Value Endurance: Despite Ethereum’s utility, Bitcoin’s brand as digital gold remains deeply entrenched. In periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, investors may flock to BTC’s simplicity and security, sidelining Ethereum’s more complex ecosystem.

Future Outlook: Projections and Scenarios

Short-Term (Q3 2025):

• ETH Breaching $3,000: If institutional inflows via staking products and ETF anticipation continue, ETH could surpass $3,000 by Q3 2025. IntoTheBlock’s support data suggests minimal sell-pressure up to $3,137, making a break above psychological resistance plausible.
• BTC Consolidation: Bitcoin is likely to trade in a $100,000–$110,000 range, with upside contingent on macroeconomic signals (Fed policy, inflation data). A sustained rally may require easing or clearer dovish signals from the Fed.

Medium-Term (Q4 2025 to Q1 2026):

• Spot ETH ETF Approval: If the SEC approves a spot ETH ETF by late 2025, estimated inflows of $10 billion to $20 billion could propel ETH to $4,000 per Coingape forecasts.
• Sharding Rollout: The successful deployment of EIP-4844 in Q4 2025 will reduce Layer 1 fees, further incentivizing rollup adoption and boosting ETH utility. By Q1 2026, full sharding may significantly increase network throughput, supporting hundreds of thousands of TPS across Layer 2 networks.
• Yield Curve Dynamics: With potential U.S. rate cuts in late 2025, capital markets may reallocate from fixed income to alternative yield sources like ETH staking, reinforcing Lubin’s thesis.

Long-Term (2026 and Beyond):

• ETH as “Digital Reserve Asset” for DeFi: If tokenization of real-world assets gains traction—particularly tokenized U.S. Treasuries, real estate, and commodities—Ethereum could evolve into a “digital reserve asset,” underpinning a new paradigm of on-chain finance.
• BTC’s Role in the Broader Crypto Economy: Bitcoin is likely to maintain its status as digital gold, a hedge against inflation and macro uncertainty, but its share of institutional crypto allocations may shrink as Ethereum’s use cases expand.
• Sustainability and Environmental Considerations: As ESG considerations grow, PoS Ethereum’s lower carbon footprint may attract environmentally conscious investors away from energy-intensive PoW Bitcoin mining.

Conclusion: Consolidating Lubin’s Vision

Joe Lubin’s assertion that “Ethereum will eventually surpass Bitcoin” rests on a multi-layered thesis: Ethereum’s programmability, staking yield, DeFi ecosystem, and ongoing network upgrades collectively create value propositions beyond Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative. ConsenSys’s $425 million investment into SharpLink Gaming and Lubin’s chairmanship signify an institutional endorsement of active ETH utilization—staking, restaking, and strategic DeFi engagement. Recent SEC clarity on staking and the burgeoning prospect of an ETH ETF have triggered an institutional rotation toward Ethereum, reflected in ETH’s 5 % surge to $2,616 on June 3, 2025 

and the ETH/BTC ratio’s ascent to 0.025.

Nevertheless, challenges remain. Regulatory uncertainties, network scalability hurdles, and competitive pressures from rival blockchains temper unbridled optimism. Yet the roadmap ahead—encompassing EIP-4844, sharding, and expanded institutional products—paints a compelling picture of Ethereum’s evolution into a programmable “digital reserve asset.” If Ethereum continues delivering on promised upgrades and institutional participation sustains current momentum, Lubin’s vision of ETH eclipsing BTC could manifest within the next 18 months. Whether Ethereum overtakes Bitcoin depends on the unfolding interplay of technological execution, regulatory clarity, and market adoption. For investors and practitioners exploring new crypto assets, Joe Lubin’s strategy underscores the importance of evaluating on-chain utility and yield generation alongside price speculation.