Main Points :
- Bitcoin is trading at around ¥16.8 million (~$114,000), showing a soft trend as Jackson Hole looms.
- Altcoin selling, especially Ethereum, intensified, dragging BTC from ¥17.3M toward ¥16.75M (~$114K).
- Fed Chair Powell’s cautious tone on rate cuts and hawkish signals weighed on tech stocks and BTC.
- A surge in rumors around a hawkish tilt at the Fed, including misconduct allegations against Fed official, sparked some rebound.
- Recent FOMC minutes offered no firm cues on rate cuts, reinforcing cautious sentiment.
- Market sees two possible Jackson Hole outcomes—either reaffirming rate pause or hinting preventive cuts.
- Preventive cut signals could boost BTC; hawkish messaging would pressure BTC further.
On-Chain and Market Dynamics
Bitcoin’s price in Japanese yen hovered near ¥16.8 million (approximately $114,000 USD), exhibiting dampened momentum amid rising caution surrounding the Jackson Hole symposium.
At the start of the week, Bitcoin slid from around ¥17.3 million ($116,000), coinciding with a broad pullback in altcoins—particularly Ethereum—while investor anxiety mounted ahead of Jackson Hole.
Bitcoin managed to stall its drop at roughly ¥16.75 million (~$114K), but further retreat followed as Fed Chair Powell unexpectedly maintained a cautious stance on rate cuts. The sell‑off in US tech equities triggered follow‑through pressure on BTC.
On the 20th, Ethereum futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) filled a price gap, calming altcoin selling and granting BTC some reprieve around ¥16.75M (~$114K).
However, a dip later that day to about ¥16.57M (~$113K) occurred as tech sector weakness persisted. That evening, allegations of misbehavior by Fed Governor Cook related to real estate contracts surfaced, prompting President Trump to demand his resignation. This stirred speculation of a dovish shift in Fed personnel, triggering a BTC rebound.
On the 21st, minutes from July’s FOMC failed to hint at upcoming rate cuts, reinforcing expectations of continued elevated rates. Against a backdrop of persistent Jackson Hole anxieties, BTC edged lower to just below ¥16.75M, though some modest buying resumed during Tokyo hours on the 22nd.
Fed Rate-Cut Scenarios and Bitcoin Implications
Before, FF futures aggressively priced in a September rate cut (above 90% probability), but by the 22nd, that estimate fell to about 74%, reflecting growing market anticipation of continued Fed caution.
Looking ahead, the Bitcoin market is watching the Jackson Hole address closely. Two scenarios are emerging:
- Reaffirm Rate Pause
Powell doubles down on holding policy steady to observe tariff impacts. Outcome: investors lower rate‑cut odds, pressuring BTC further. - Signal Preventive Cut
With rising concern about labor market trends, Powell subtly opens the door to “preemptive” rate easing. Even without a firm commitment, this messaging could fuel a positive rally in BTC.
Given FOMC minutes emphasized inflation and the risks of prices rising faster than labor weaknesses, this second scenario may gain traction. Still, any dovish signal would act as a tailwind for Bitcoin, while the former presents a drag.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s soft trading near ¥16.8 million (~$114K) reflects growing macroeconomic caution tied to Jackson Hole and Fed policy uncertainty. The interplay between altcoin movements, Federal rhetoric, and on‑chain activity frames a delicate balance. A dovish hint from the Fed at Jackson Hole could catalyze a relief rally, while continued hawkishness could weigh further. Practitioners tracking blockchain for yield, investment, or operational use should heed these macro dynamics to better anticipate price movements and positioning opportunities.
