Main Points:
- SEC’s shift away from a strict first‐to‐file approval process has sparked concerns over fairness and competition in the crypto ETF space.
- Leading issuers VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Capital have publicly urged the SEC to restore first‐to‐file principles.
- A BlackRock XRP spot ETF application could dramatically reshape the current competitive landscape, sidelining smaller incumbents.
- Market indicators—such as XRP’s June 8 peak and Polymarket odds—suggest growing optimism about imminent XRP ETF approvals.
- Institutional moves, including JPMorgan’s plan to accept crypto ETFs as collateral for loans, underscore a broader integration of digital assets into TradFi.
- The regulatory environment under the Trump administration is expected to remain favorable, potentially accelerating approvals and innovation.
Background: SEC’s Approval Practices Under Fire
In early June 2025, VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Capital sent a public letter to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), criticizing what they describe as a departure from the long‐established “first‐to‐file” rule for ETF approvals. They contend that by approving multiple ETF applications simultaneously—rather than honoring the chronological order of filings—the SEC has undermined market fairness and stifled competition among issuers.
ETF industry experts like Nate Geraci and Eric Balchunas have echoed similar concerns on social media platform X, pointing to past instances where Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs—filed at different times—were greenlit en masse, hinting at an ingrained bias favoring large asset managers over smaller pioneers.
The Open Letter: Calls for First‐to‐File Rule
The crux of the issuers’ argument is that the SEC’s simultaneous approval mechanism dilutes the incentive to innovate and penalizes firms that invest early in the process. VanEck, the first Solana ETF filer in June 2024, and Bitwise, which filed for an XRP ETF in October 2024, believe they should receive priority under a robust first‐to‐file framework. Their letter urged the SEC to “reinstate the principle of first‐to‐file to ensure a level playing field and maintain the integrity of the U.S. ETF market”.
They warn that without this change, the $15.4 trillion U.S. ETF industry risks favoring “lazy behavior” by allowing larger entities to piggyback off the research and groundwork laid by smaller competitors.
Potential Impact of a BlackRock XRP Spot ETF Filing
Should BlackRock—the world’s largest asset manager—submit an application for an XRP spot ETF, the existing competitive dynamics could shift dramatically. Smaller issuers currently vying for approval, including Bitwise, Canary Capital, and Franklin Templeton, may find their efforts overshadowed by BlackRock’s operational scale, marketing clout, and established SEC relationships.
Analysts speculate that this could lead to a “one‐stop approval” scenario, where BlackRock’s filing is bundled with pending applications, effectively erasing the first‐to‐file advantage and reinforcing the very favoritism criticized by industry stakeholders.
Market Reactions and Speculation
Crypto markets have already begun to price in the possibility of an imminent XRP ETF approval. On June 8, XRP surged to a multi‐month high, driven by speculation that the SEC might be preparing to greenlight a spot ETF for the token. Meanwhile, Polymarket odds for a U.S. XRP ETF approval in 2025 spiked to over 90%, reflecting widespread market optimism.
This buzz has extended to broader crypto indices as well: the Nasdaq Crypto US Settlement Price Index—which includes ADA, SOL, XLM, and XRP—received regulatory approval, further bolstering hopes for spot ETF greenlights across multiple tokens.
Institutional Adoption: JPMorgan’s Crypto ETF Collateral Lending
In a parallel development underscoring TradFi’s integration of crypto, JPMorgan announced on June 4 that it will begin accepting spot Bitcoin ETFs—starting with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) managing over $70 billion—as collateral for client loans.
This move allows trading and wealth‐management clients to pledge regulated crypto ETFs under the same risk and loan‐to‐value frameworks applied to traditional securities. JPMorgan will also factor crypto holdings into net worth assessments, effectively equating digital assets with equities and fine art.
CEO Jamie Dimon’s shift—from likening Bitcoin to “smoking” to defending clients’ right to hold digital assets—signals institutional acceptance at the highest levels and may pave the way for other banks to follow suit.
Regulatory Outlook Under the Trump Administration
The broader U.S. political landscape is also tilting in favor of crypto‐friendly policy. Under President Trump’s administration—ushered in earlier this year—federal agencies have signaled a willingness to ease regulatory constraints on digital assets. Industry veterans anticipate that SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s replacement will adopt a more permissive stance, further facilitating ETF approvals for tokens like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin.
This expectation has fueled a surge in filing activity: since mid-2024, dozens of applications for spot and multi‐asset crypto ETFs have flooded the SEC, reflecting issuer confidence in a favorable policy environment.
Conclusion
The debate over SEC favoritism and the first‐to‐file principle has laid bare the tensions between established asset managers and nimble innovators in the burgeoning crypto ETF space. A BlackRock XRP spot ETF filing—even if hypothetical—would crystallize these issues, potentially reshaping market access and competitive dynamics.
Against this backdrop, market signals—ranging from XRP’s price surge to Polymarket odds—and institutional actions like JPMorgan’s ETF collateral program point to a broader shift: digital assets are moving from the periphery to the core of mainstream finance. As the Trump administration’s regulatory posture remains upbeat, the coming months promise critical decisions that will define the future of spot crypto ETFs and, by extension, the trajectory of blockchain‐based investment products.
