Main Points:
- Bitcoin breaks above the triangle consolidation, briefly touching $65,000.
- Powell hints at a potential rate cut in September during Jackson Hole.
- Kennedy drops out of the race, endorses Trump.
- Concerns over the rising yen, falling Japanese stocks, Harris’ comeback, and Hezbollah-Israel clashes.
Bitcoin Market Overview Over the Weekend
Over the weekend, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant rise in value. It broke out of the consolidation zone around $61,000 (approximately ¥8.9 million) and briefly touched $65,000 (¥9.35 million). This upward movement came after BTC rebounded from its August 5th low of $49,000 to reach the $62,000 range. The support at $56,000 facilitated this consolidation phase, eventually forming a triangle pattern with $62,000 as resistance.
During this period, various global events influenced the market. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s failed ceasefire negotiations were followed by the resumption of talks in Cairo, which provided BTC with the momentum to rise toward $61,000. However, developments in Japan, including BOJ Governor Ueda’s cautious stance on further rate hikes, led to a temporary cap on BTC’s upward movement.
Impact of Political and Economic Events
The market closely watched the Democratic Convention, where Vice President Harris delivered her acceptance speech. Despite speculations, her speech did not touch on cryptocurrencies or innovation, reinforcing the market’s perception of her as being unfriendly towards digital assets. As a result, BTC saw minimal impact from her speech, though it continued to hover around the $61,000 mark.
As the convention boosted Harris’ standings in prediction markets, BTC briefly dipped to the $60,000 range but quickly recovered. The most significant push came from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, where he hinted at a possible rate cut in September, leading BTC to rise above $62,000, albeit briefly.
The Influence of Kennedy’s Endorsement and Global Tensions
Another key event was the anticipated withdrawal of Robert Kennedy Jr. from the presidential race and his subsequent endorsement of former President Donald Trump. This expectation spurred BTC to break out of its consolidation, surging into the $63,000 range. Once Kennedy’s endorsement became official, BTC reached $64,000, nearing the $65,000 mark.
However, BTC’s ascent was tempered by external factors. The arrest of Telegram’s CEO in France, which caused a sharp drop in the price of the platform’s cryptocurrency, TON, and escalating tensions between Hezbollah and Israel also contributed to market volatility. Despite briefly touching $65,000, BTC struggled to maintain this level as global uncertainties loomed.
Current Market Sentiment and Future Outlook
As of this morning, BTC is slightly weighed down. The recent rebound from $49,000 to $62,000 echoes the pattern observed in the August 9th Daily Report, where the analysis suggested that the recent decline from $70,000 to $65,000 was driven by concerns over Harris’ rise and Middle Eastern instability, while the drop from $65,000 to $61,000 was due to worries about the U.S. economy, and the further decline to $49,000 was influenced by the crash in Japanese stocks.
The report also projected a possible recovery to around $65,000, supported by BOJ Governor Ueda’s dismissal of additional rate hikes and improving U.S. economic indicators. This morning’s brief touch on the $65,000 mark fulfills that expectation.
BTC’s next steps will likely depend on how global events unfold, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing U.S. election. While BTC has the potential to rise towards $69,000, it will require positive developments, such as easing tensions in the Middle East or a dramatic turnaround in the U.S. political landscape. For now, traders should remain cautious, as BTC may still face significant resistance in its path forward.
