Main Points:
- Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin’s Short-Term Decline and Long-Term Surge
- Potential Triggers for Bitcoin’s Price Fluctuations
- Market Reactions and Investor Sentiments
- Correlation Between Bitcoin and Traditional Financial Markets
- Insights from Other Financial Analysts
- Future Outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum by 2025
Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin’s Short-Term Decline and Long-Term Surge
Arthur Hayes, the founder and former CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has made significant waves in the crypto community with his recent Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions. On January 27, Hayes projected that Bitcoin could experience a short-term decline, falling to a range between $70,000 and $75,000 (approximately ¥11.6 million). However, his long-term outlook remains bullish, anticipating a substantial rise in Bitcoin’s value to $250,000 (around ¥38.6 million) by the end of 2025.
At the time of his prediction, Bitcoin was trading in the $101,000 range (approximately ¥15.6 million). Despite maintaining high valuation levels, influenced by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s formal assumption of office—a factor seen as supportive by cryptocurrency proponents—Bitcoin’s price experienced a 3% drop compared to the previous day.
Potential Triggers for Bitcoin’s Price Fluctuations
Hayes attributes the potential short-term decline in Bitcoin’s price to several interrelated factors. One primary concern is the rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields, which could precipitate a minor financial crisis. Higher bond yields often lead to increased borrowing costs and can dampen investor appetite for riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Moreover, Hayes points to the emergence of DeepSeek, an AI startup from China, as a catalyst for heightened risk aversion among investors. The rapid advancement and success of DeepSeek may have redirected investment flows away from traditional crypto assets like Bitcoin, contributing to the observed price drop.
Additionally, a downturn in the U.S. stock market has further exacerbated the situation. As traditional financial markets experience volatility, investors may liquidate their crypto holdings to cover losses or reallocate funds to more stable assets, thereby increasing downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

Market Reactions and Investor Sentiments
The immediate reaction to Hayes’ predictions and the subsequent Bitcoin price movements reflects a broader trend of volatility and uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market. On January 27, Bitcoin’s price plummeted, briefly falling below the $100,000 mark. This sharp decline did not stem from any direct negative developments within Bitcoin itself but was rather influenced by external economic factors and shifting investor sentiment.
Investors are increasingly cautious, balancing the potential high returns of cryptocurrencies against the risks posed by macroeconomic instability and competitive technological advancements from sectors like artificial intelligence. The sentiment is further influenced by geopolitical developments and regulatory changes, which continue to shape the landscape for digital assets.
Correlation Between Bitcoin and Traditional Financial Markets
Bitcoin’s growing correlation with traditional financial markets is a noteworthy development highlighted in the analysis. The launch of Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States and the increasing participation of institutional investors have led to a tighter integration between crypto markets and traditional stock indices, such as the Nasdaq.
This interconnection means that fluctuations in the stock market can have a more pronounced impact on Bitcoin’s price. For instance, a significant drop in the Nasdaq due to external factors like technological innovations or economic policies can lead to a simultaneous decline in Bitcoin’s value as investors react to the broader market downturn.
The correlation also raises concerns about the stability of crypto assets during periods of financial stress. As ETFs become more prevalent, the flow of funds between traditional markets and crypto markets can lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin’s price, especially when investors exhibit a heightened risk-averse stance.
Insights from Other Financial Analysts
Beyond Arthur Hayes, other financial experts have weighed in on Bitcoin’s current and future trajectory. Jeffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered provided a nuanced perspective on the recent price movements. On January 27, Kendrick characterized the ongoing downturn as a potential buying opportunity for Bitcoin enthusiasts.
Kendrick noted that Bitcoin’s price is increasingly mirroring the performance of major U.S. stock indices like the Nasdaq. He attributed the sharp decline to the impact of DeepSeek’s technological announcements, which led to a 3% drop in Nasdaq futures and, consequently, accelerated liquidation within the cryptocurrency market.
Looking ahead, Kendrick warned of continued liquidation risks in the Nasdaq market. He highlighted upcoming events, such as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate announcements and earnings reports from major corporations like Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla, which could further influence market sentiment and Bitcoin’s price.
However, Kendrick remains optimistic in the long term. He references his “three-phase market theory,” positioning the current phase as Stage 2—”dip buying” or purchasing at lower prices. In this stage, institutional investors are taking the lead in driving the market for Bitcoin and Ethereum, signaling a potential upward trend in the future.
Consistent with his earlier statements, Kendrick reaffirmed his price targets, projecting Bitcoin to reach $200,000 (approximately ¥30.9 million) and Ethereum to ascend to $10,000 (around ¥1.55 million) by the end of 2025.
Future Outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum by 2025
Both Arthur Hayes and Jeffrey Kendrick offer a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the long term, despite current market volatility. Hayes anticipates that, following a temporary dip caused by financial instability and shifting investor priorities, Bitcoin will benefit from monetary easing policies. These policies, aimed at increasing the money supply, could drive demand for Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, propelling its price to unprecedented levels by late 2025.
Kendrick echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the role of institutional investment in stabilizing and driving the growth of major cryptocurrencies. As more large-scale investors enter the market, the liquidity and legitimacy of Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to strengthen, fostering a more resilient and upward-trending market environment.
Moreover, the integration of blockchain technology into various industries continues to expand, enhancing the practical utility and adoption of cryptocurrencies. Innovations in decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and smart contracts are likely to drive further interest and investment in digital assets, contributing to their long-term growth prospects.
In addition, regulatory developments will play a crucial role in shaping the future landscape for cryptocurrencies. Clear and supportive regulatory frameworks can enhance investor confidence, attract more institutional capital, and facilitate broader adoption of digital currencies across different sectors.
Future outlook
The cryptocurrency market remains a dynamic and evolving landscape, characterized by significant volatility and rapid developments. Arthur Hayes’ prediction of a near-term decline in Bitcoin’s price to the $70,000-$75,000 range underscores the influence of macroeconomic factors and competitive technological advancements on digital assets. However, his optimistic forecast for Bitcoin’s value reaching $250,000 by the end of 2025 reflects a belief in the long-term resilience and growth potential of cryptocurrencies.
Insights from other financial analysts, such as Jeffrey Kendrick, further support a cautiously optimistic outlook, highlighting the importance of institutional investment and market phases in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. As the market continues to mature and integrate with traditional financial systems, the interplay between regulatory policies, technological innovations, and investor behavior will be pivotal in determining the future course of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem.
For investors seeking new revenue streams or exploring the practical applications of blockchain technology, understanding these dynamics is essential. While short-term fluctuations present challenges, the foundational strengths and expanding utility of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum suggest a promising horizon for the digital asset market.