Main Points:
- CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan identifies unique patterns in the 2024–25 bull cycle, including rapid post-surge corrections in March–November 2024 and January–April 2025, diverging from historical cycles.
- Major market participants may be artificially suppressing price spikes to cool overheated conditions and extend the bull run.
- Post-halving returns one year after the April 2024 event were a modest 31%, compared to 300% and 567% in prior cycles, signaling market maturation.
- Institutional adoption is rising, with Bitcoin market dominance reaching all-time highs and ETFs fueling capital inflows, reflecting its evolution as a macro asset.
- Analysts project Bitcoin price targets between $150,000 and $200,000 by year-end 2025, but caution that volatility may persist amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
Introduction
In mid-2025, Bitcoin (BTC) once again stands at the center of both admiration and scrutiny within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. While the 2024–25 bull cycle has propelled BTC to exceed six‐figure valuations, its trajectory has markedly diverged from typical historical patterns observed in 2017 and 2021. Rather than displaying the familiar series of gradual corrections followed by sustained upward trends, this cycle has been punctuated by sharp rebounds and swift pullbacks. On June 5, 2025, CryptoQuant’s in‐house analyst “Crypto Dan” highlighted these deviations, noting that the 2024–25 cycle experienced two significant correction phases—March through November 2024 and January through April 2025—during which altcoins underperformed and market sentiment waned, yet BTC repeatedly rebounded in brief surges.
To provide context, Bitcoin halvings historically serve as major catalysts for bull markets, given their built-in supply reduction mechanism. However, a recent report by Fidelity Digital Assets reveals that the one‐year return from the April 19, 2024 halving was a relatively muted 31%, compared to 300% in 2016–2017 and 567% in 2020–2021—underscoring a maturing asset less prone to dramatic supply‐driven rallies. Furthermore, as BTC cements its role as a macro asset, institutional capital flows have surged—evident from record stablecoin inflows into major exchanges—while regulatory clarity around instruments like staking has improved.
Against this backdrop, this article delves into the defining characteristics of the 2024–25 bull cycle, examines the role of artificial market suppression by influential participants, contrasts today’s landscape with prior cycles, and explores how institutional adoption and price projections shape investor strategy. Readers interested in discovering novel crypto assets, identifying emerging revenue streams, and applying blockchain in practical contexts will gain a comprehensive understanding of current BTC dynamics and their implications.
Distinct Features of the 2024–25 Bull Cycle
Unlike previous bull runs—which typically exhibit long mid-cycle consolidation phases before sharply ascending toward a climax—the 2024–25 cycle has displayed two pronounced post-surge corrections. From March to November 2024, Bitcoin’s price experienced a sizable retracement even as it flirted with new highs, and a second correction occurred from January to April 2025. During both intervals, altcoins languished under heavy pressure, and market sentiment soured, suggesting sector-wide exhaustion rather than isolated Bitcoin weakness.
Whereas the 2017 bull cycle featured a mid-cycle “adjustment period” lasting seven to eight months—during which Bitcoin consolidated near $5,000–$7,000 before surging toward its late-December $19,700 peak—this cycle’s corrections were briefer yet sharper in magnitude. In 2021, an extended correction from early 2020 (triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic) lasted roughly a year, after which Bitcoin’s rapid ascent culminated near $64,800 in April 2021. In contrast, BTC’s corrections in 2024 and early 2025 lasted just under a year combined yet occurred in two discrete phases, each followed by swift rebounds that kept the overall bull market intact.
Further differentiating this cycle, Bitcoin’s realized cap and on-chain indicators reflect periods of heavy sell-side pressure from long-term holders during these retracements—suggesting distribution by whales or institutional entities. Nevertheless, each downturn was met by aggressive bid demand from new entrants and existing bulls, triggering rapid recoveries. This seesaw pattern contrasts with earlier cycles, where corrections led to extended sideways trading before resuming the uptrend, underscoring a fundamentally different investor psychology and market structure in 2025.
Artificial Market Suppression: Strategies by Major Participants
CryptoQuant’s analysis posits that the repeated “rise-suppression” pattern may not be purely organic but instead orchestrated by large market participants aiming to temper overheating and extend the bull cycle’s overall duration. By offloading positions into rallies and absorbing sell pressure on dips, these entities can smooth price action, preventing runaway euphoria that might culminate in a premature bubble pop. Such interventions are thought to be carried out through over-the-counter (OTC) desks, algorithmic trading bots, and coordinated spot futures hedging strategies, allowing discreet execution without triggering excessive volatility.
During the March–November 2024 correction, on-chain data indicate that large addresses—often linked to hedge funds and trading desks—sold substantial BTC amounts during rallies around $70,000–$75,000, temporarily pushing prices down toward the $50,000 support range. Similar behavior reemerged in early 2025, when spikes above $90,000 saw rapid profit-taking, sending BTC back toward $65,000–$70,000. By managing liquidity across key price levels, these actors effectively capped short-term upside, preventing Bitcoin from rallying straight through resistance zones.
This approach contrasts with the more laissez-faire dynamics of 2017 and 2021, when smaller derivatives markets and limited institutional footprint meant corrections emerged organically from retail-driven profit-taking or macro-economic shocks—rather than deliberate suppression. In 2025, deep liquidity provided by institutional desks allows for more sophisticated execution. While critics argue that such manipulation undermines market integrity, proponents contend it creates a controlled ascent, minimizing flash crashes and building broad-based confidence ahead of an eventual bubble climax.
Comparison with 2017 and 2021 Cycles
To appreciate the anomalies of the 2024–25 bull run, it is instructive to compare with 2017 and 2021. The 2017 cycle featured a classic parabolic advance from January through May—when BTC rose from $1,000 to $2,500—followed by a three-month correction to about $1,800. After consolidating for seven to eight months, Bitcoin ascended from $5,000 to nearly $20,000 between October and December 2017. No major players intervened; retail FOMO and limited derivatives infrastructure drove volatility.
The 2021 cycle was disrupted early by the COVID-19 liquidity crisis. From January to March 2020, BTC plunged from $9,000 to $4,000 as markets crashed. Once global stimulus efforts took hold, Bitcoin doubled to $8,000 by July 2020 and then embarked on a steep rally, culminating at $64,800 in April 2021. Corrections thereafter were shorter, and replacements of momentum phases with continuous smaller pullbacks provided a smoother ascent—driven partly by institutional inflows from publicly traded firms and the launch of first-generation spot BTC ETFs. However, retail hysteria still played a major role once headlines turned bullish.
In contrast, the current cycle’s corrections in 2024–25 occurred not at the beginning (as in early 2020) nor strictly mid-cycle (as in 2017), but twice in succession after strong surges—each time cutting into altcoin valuations more severely than Bitcoin. The prolonged weakness in alts—from March to November 2024—suggests BTC was hogging limited capital flows, forcing smaller projects into a downward spiral. In 2017, altcoins generally rallied in tandem with BTC; and in 2021, ETH and major layer-1 tokens outperformed during the later phases. Today’s dominance disparity underscores a changed capital allocation landscape, where large players deliberately direct funds into Bitcoin while sidelining riskier alts until the cycle’s final phase.
Impact of Halving: Fidelity Digital Assets’ Findings
The April 19, 2024 Bitcoin halving reduced the block subsidy from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, theoretically slicing new supply in half. Historically, halvings have catalyzed bull markets due to the supply shock mechanism—2012’s halving prefaced a 9,000% rally, and 2016’s preceded a 300% surge within a year. Yet, Fidelity Digital Assets’ “2024 Bitcoin Halving: One Year Later” report reveals that as of April 15, 2025, Bitcoin’s price was $83,671—only 31% above its $63,762 halving‐day price. Compared to 300% in 2016–2017 and 567% in 2020–2021, this muted gain reflects a more mature market where supply factors have diminished marginal impact.
Fidelity attributes this restraint to several factors: first, Bitcoin’s integration into institutional portfolios has begun to decouple price action from pure supply-demand mechanics. As BTC becomes a routine treasury allocation or hedge against inflation, its price sees fewer parabolic moves and more stable appreciation driven by measured inflows. Second, global macro uncertainties—ranging from U.S. Federal Reserve rate decisions to geopolitical tensions—have created intermittent headwinds, prompting profit-taking at higher levels. Third, miner revenue, though up 11% daily since the halving, remains sensitive to fluctuating transaction fees and energy costs, influencing sell-side liquidity.
Despite the moderate one‐year gain, Bitcoin’s market dominance (excluding stablecoins) climbed to 72.4% by mid-May 2025—an eight-year peak since March 2017—indicating continued preference for BTC over altcoins amidst uncertain environments. This trend underscores a flight to “safe” digital assets during corrections, as investors hedge against volatility by reallocating to Bitcoin rather than broad altcoin portfolios.
Institutional Adoption and Market Maturation
Institutional engagement has reshaped market dynamics. In early 2025, stablecoin inflows into Binance alone reached $180 billion year‐to‐date, highlighting exchanges’ central role as capital gateways. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and futures products has further anchored institutional participation, allowing large entities to express views on BTC without direct on-chain custody. According to Di Wu (2025), Bitcoin’s correlation with major U.S. equity indices such as the Nasdaq 100 rose to 0.87 in 2024—indicative of its evolution from an “alternative asset” to a macro instrument within diversified portfolios.
Moreover, publicly traded companies like MicroStrategy have converted balance‐sheet allocations into sizable BTC holdings—valued around $60 billion—leveraging convertible debt to disproportionately increase crypto exposure. While this strategy promises amplified returns if BTC rallies, it also introduces systemic risk: a price drop could force asset liquidations to meet debt obligations, potentially cascading volatility across markets. Concurrently, Texas passed legislation to create a state‐level Bitcoin reserve, and SEC clarifications on staking as non‐securities have reduced regulatory overhang—fostering a more predictable environment for institutional players.
This maturation is evident in on-chain metrics: open interest on institutional derivatives platforms remains elevated, while realized volatility has contracted relative to 2021 peaks. Analysts note that large bid orders behind Bitcoin’s backstop support often stem from high‐frequency trading desks tied to regulated entities rather than retail “buy the dip” activity—indicative of a more sophisticated market structure.
Price Projections and Market Sentiment
Several research firms forecast Bitcoin’s price to reach $150,000 to $200,000 by year‐end 2025, based on historical cycle multiples, growing ETF demand, and Macroeconomic tailwinds. MarketVector’s Martin Leinweber suggests BTC could peak at roughly 2.3 times its early November 2024 level of $67,000—implying a $150,000 target—if historic patterns replicate. Meanwhile, Investopedia’s June 2025 outlook anticipates price pressures from Fed rate decisions, yet forecasts that sustained institutional accumulation will offset short‐term headwinds, driving BTC toward $180,000–$200,000.
Despite bullish forecasts, volatility remains a key risk. Analysts warn that periods around U.S. elections (November 2024 to November 2025) and potential new SEC regulations on stablecoins could trigger 20–30% pullbacks, emulating historical patterns where BTC dipped after inaugurations or during summer lulls. Sentiment indicators, such as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, hovered in “neutral” territory as of early June 2025—indicating a balanced stance between bullish optimism and caution amid mixed macro signals.
Furthermore, survey data from institutional desks show growing allocations to Bitcoin within the 3–7% range of total investable assets, especially as a hedge against anticipated inflation. Nonetheless, some macro funds maintain underweight positions, wary of overvaluation relative to on-chain fundamentals. This bifurcation in sentiment suggests that while consensus leans toward long-term appreciation, tactical traders remain vigilant for pullbacks, especially if BTC fails to hold the $100,000 support zone decisively.
Implications for Altcoins and Investors
The 2024–25 bull cycle’s unique suppression phases disproportionately impacted altcoins, many of which languished for extended periods while BTC dominated capital inflows. Projects lacking sustainable use cases or vivid narratives faced steep drawdowns, with many tokens trading below 2021 levels despite a broader crypto market uptrend.
However, the recent altcoin season in Q2 2025—driven by renewed interest in Ethereum layer-2 solutions, DeFi interoperability protocols, and NFT infrastructure—signals that investors are seeking differentiated opportunities beyond Bitcoin. While BTC commands the lion’s share of capital during suppression periods, altcoins tend to rally sharply once Bitcoin’s volatility subsides and headlines pivot toward innovation narratives. For instance, Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) experienced double-digit percentage gains in May 2025, fueled by renewed developer activity and on-chain metrics that suggest robust ecosystem growth.
Institutional entrants are also exploring altcoin exposure via tokenized basket products or structured notes that blend BTC and leading alt assets. These instruments offer regulated investors diversified upside while mitigating tail risk through derivative overlays. As such, a pragmatic strategy for investors seeking new crypto assets involves monitoring on-chain activity metrics—such as total value locked (TVL) and active address growth—rather than purely chasing market cap rankings.
Moreover, pragmatic blockchain use cases—such as cross‐border settlement, tokenized real-world assets, and decentralized identity—have gained traction among institutional pilots. Projects focusing on scalability and regulatory compliance are attracting venture capital, indicating a shift from speculative token launches toward sustainable ecosystem builders. This trend aligns with the broader theme of market maturation: investors increasingly favor projects demonstrating clear revenue models and enterprise adoption pathways, rather than purely meme or hype-driven tokens.
Conclusion
The 2024–25 Bitcoin bull cycle has unfolded in a manner that deviates significantly from its predecessors. Characterized by two discrete correction phases, artificial market suppression by large participants, and tempered post-halving returns, this cycle reflects a maturing asset class gradually shedding its retail-driven volatility in favor of institutional sophistication. Fidelity Digital Assets’ one-year post-halving data, showing a 31% increase—rather than the 300% or 567% seen in prior epochs—underscores supply mechanics’ waning influence as demand drivers diversify.
As institutional adoption accelerates—evidenced by record stablecoin inflows, ETF rollouts, and corporate balance-sheet allocations—Bitcoin’s role as a macro asset has solidified, supported by on-chain metrics indicating elevated miners’ revenue and market dominance. While analysts forecast price targets between $150,000 and $200,000 by late 2025, they caution that volatility will persist around macro events, including U.S. elections and potential regulatory shifts.
For investors seeking new crypto assets, altcoin ecosystems are poised to reclaim attention during periods when Bitcoin’s volatility eases—particularly in projects emphasizing real-world use cases and institutional readiness. The practical application of blockchain technology—from decentralized finance to tokenized real-world assets—suggests that the next phase of market expansion will be driven less by speculative fervor and more by tangible value creation.
In summary, Bitcoin’s 2024–25 bull market is a testament to its evolving nature: one shaped by deep liquidity provisioning, strategic price management by major stakeholders, and growing institutional endorsement. While the cycle may still culminate in a euphoric bubble, discerning investors will likely benefit from recognizing the maturation signals—navigating opportunities in both Bitcoin and prudent altcoin selections that demonstrate sustainable fundamentals.
