Main Points:
- CZ’s Forecast: Binance co‑founder Changpeng Zhao predicts Bitcoin could reach $500,000–$1 million this cycle.
- ETF Catalysts: The proliferation of spot Bitcoin ETFs is drawing massive institutional capital into crypto.
- Sovereign Accumulation: Governments like El Salvador and Bhutan are adding significant Bitcoin reserves.
- U.S. Policy Shift: A more crypto‑friendly U.S. administration is accelerating mainstream adoption.
- Institutional Flow Breakdown: According to Obchakevich Research, ~70% of Bitcoin’s growth comes from new institutional funds.
- Memecoin Caution: CZ warns that 99.99% of memecoins will fail, underscoring the primacy of long‑term value.
CZ’s $500K–$1M Bitcoin Price Band
In a wide‑ranging Rug Radio interview published May 5, 2025, Binance co‑founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao offered one of his most bullish price targets yet, forecasting that Bitcoin (BTC) may soar to between $500,000 and $1 million during the current market cycle. He attributed this upside to three converging dynamics—spot ETFs, sovereign accumulation, and a U.S. policy pivot—asserting:
“There’s the ETFs. There’s this institutionalization of Bitcoin … it’s a positive in terms of price action, obviously. Our bags are up — not the alt‑coins as much, but at least Bitcoin is.”
CZ emphasized that ETFs are “bringing traditional institution money into crypto,” and that “most of the money in the U.S. is institutional money”.
The ETF Engine: Unlocking Institutional Flows
The approval of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. this year has been a watershed moment. According to SEC filings and market‑tracker data, ETFs have amassed over $10 billion in net inflows since January 2025, with daily volumes averaging $1 billion. These vehicles allow pensions, endowments, and asset managers to gain regulated, custodial exposure to BTC without self‑custody risk.
Obchakevich Research, in a May 2025 briefing, estimated that roughly 70% of Bitcoin’s price growth this cycle stems directly from fresh institutional inflows via these ETFs; the remaining 30% is reallocated from altcoins and retail holdings. Such “reflexive loops” of inflows driving price, which in turn attracts more inflows, have historically underpinned bull runs—but on an unprecedented scale this time.
Sovereign Bitcoin Accumulation on the Rise
Beyond institutions, nation‑state actors are also quietly building Bitcoin treasuries. El Salvador, the first country to make BTC legal tender, added 7 BTC (≈$650,000 at the time) between April 20–27, 2025, bringing its total reserves to 6,170 BTC (≈$580 million) according to its National Bitcoin Office. Despite IMF cautions, President Bukele’s government continues buying dips, viewing Bitcoin as a strategic inflation hedge.
Meanwhile, reports indicate Bhutan plans to establish a “digital reserve fund” comprising BTC and ETH, positioning the kingdom as a regional crypto hub. Such sovereign purchases create an implicit buying floor, reducing available supply and reinforcing upward momentum.
U.S. Policy: A 180° Crypto Turn
CZ highlighted what he called a “180‑degree policy flip” in Washington under the current administration. Former President Trump’s endorsement of a federal crypto “strategic reserve” has further legitimized Bitcoin at the highest levels. With the U.S. Treasury signaling that regulated entities may include BTC on corporate balance sheets and the White House exploring fair‑value accounting for digital assets, the risk‑reward calculus for holding Bitcoin continues to tilt in favor of accumulation.
Breaking Down the Numbers
| Source | Metric | Value |
|---|
| SEC ETF Inflows | Total net inflows (Jan–May 2025) | >$10 billion |
| Obchakevich Research | Institutional share of BTC growth | ~70% |
| El Salvador Bitcoin Office | Total BTC reserves | 6,170 BTC (≈$580 million) |
| Buys in Apr 20–27, 2025 | Additional BTC acquired by El Salvador | 7 BTC (≈$650,000) |
Memecoins and the Real Innovation Path
While extolling Bitcoin’s prospects, CZ cautioned that “99.99% of memecoins will fail,” labeling them distractions from substantive blockchain innovations like DeFi primitives, layer‑2 scaling, and tokenized real‑world assets. He urged developers and investors to focus on projects with clear product‑market fit and long‑term value propositions rather than speculative meme plays.
What Comes Next: Timing and Risks
CZ did not specify when Bitcoin might hit his $1 million ceiling. Market cycles often peak 12–18 months after the halving event; with the last halving in April 2024, many analysts expect the top between mid‑2025 and early 2026. However, geopolitical shocks, regulatory clampdowns, or macroeconomic downturns could trigger sharp corrections along the way.
Yet, the combination of ETF‑driven liquidity, sovereign accumulation, and favorable U.S. policy sets a structural backdrop unseen in prior cycles. If Bitcoin’s supply schedule and halving mechanics function as designed, a trajectory toward six‑figure—and potentially seven‑figure—prices falls within the realm of possibility.
Conclusion
Changpeng Zhao’s forecast of $500,000 to $1 million per BTC this cycle is audacious but grounded in observable trends: massive institutional inflows via spot ETFs, growing sovereign reserve allocations, and a decisive U.S. policy shift in favor of crypto. While timing remains uncertain and risks abound, the confluence of these forces marks a new chapter in Bitcoin’s maturation from speculative asset to institutional‑grade reserve asset. For investors and builders eyeing the next frontier in blockchain applications, understanding and positioning for these megatrends could prove pivotal in the months ahead.