Key Points :
- Macro and geopolitical improvements — particularly easing Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick points to recent US-China trade developments as shifting sentiment in favour of risk assets.
- The BTC/Gold ratio has rebounded to levels seen before the early‐October tariff scare; this metric is now being treated as a sentiment gauge for crypto.
- Inflows (and outflows) in ETFs are emerging as a key driver: gold ETFs saw large outflows, and a portion moving into bitcoin‐related funds would be meaningful.
- The “halving‐cycle” thesis for bitcoin’s peaks may be losing explanatory power — new all-time highs would undermine the idea that bitcoin’s major surges must coincide with its four-year halving schedule.
- If favourable conditions persist through this week (including a highly anticipated US – Federal Reserve rate cut and earnings from big tech and crypto firms), bitcoin may establish $100,000 as a new psychological (and perhaps technical) floor.
Macro & Geopolitical Tailwinds
In his latest note, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, states that if current favourable macroeconomic and geopolitical developments continue this week, Bitcoin may never again drop below $100,000.
A key catalyst cited is the easing of US-China trade tensions. According to reports, the US Treasury Secretary suggested that China might delay its rare-earth export restrictions by one year, while China could commit to purchasing significant volumes of US soybeans in return for Washington dropping its threat of 100 % tariffs.
Kendrick argues that this shift—from fear to hope—has lifted risk-asset sentiment, which in turn benefits crypto. He notes that during the tariff scare earlier in October, the BTC/Gold ratio plunged, and the recent rebound in that ratio is a signal that the risk-off phase may have ended.
For crypto investors scouting new assets and income strategies, this backdrop matters deeply: improved macro conditions mean less tail risk and potentially greater freedom to pursue higher-beta, emerging crypto assets rather than purely safe-haven plays.
BTC/Gold Ratio as a Sentiment Gauge
Traditionally, the BTC/Gold ratio is the market-cap of bitcoin divided by the market-cap of gold (or effectively, bitcoin’s strength relative to gold). When the ratio rises, bitcoin is outperforming gold; when it falls, gold is relatively stronger.
In mid/late October 2025, bitcoin’s ratio versus gold hit its most oversold reading in nearly three years, suggesting that the market may have undervalued bitcoin relative to gold.
Kendrick sets a critical threshold: he would look for the ratio to break back above 30 (in whatever measurement he uses) as a clear sign that fear around geopolitical and macro risk has ended for crypto.
For a practitioner or investor in the crypto space, this means that monitoring the BTC/Gold ratio offers an additional lens beyond price alone. When bitcoin starts outperforming gold materially, it suggests renewed risk appetite and possibly a shift toward more speculative assets (i.e., altcoins) may follow.
ETF Flows & Institutional Momentum
Beyond macro sentiment and ratios, ETF flow data are increasingly important. According to Kendrick and others quoted by CoinCentral: gold ETFs registered an outflow of over US$2 billion recently. If even half of that capital flows into bitcoin ETFs, it would signal a major rotation.
Recent headlines show global crypto ETFs attracted large net inflows — for example, nearly US$5.95 billion in the week ending 4 October, with bitcoin drawing US$3.55 billion, ether US$1.48 billion.
For crypto assets and upcoming new tokens, this institutional backdrop has several implications:
- Greater legitimacy of bitcoin (and by extension major assets) may lead to spill-over into smaller/adjacent assets.
- Fund flows often precede price moves; being early in identifying flows can offer outsized returns.
- Projects that align with institutional themes (e.g., on-chain infrastructure, tokenized real-world assets, high-yield protocols) may receive disproportionate attention.
The End of the Halving Cycle Narrative?
A provocative part of Kendrick’s view is the suggestion that if bitcoin posts a new all-time high soon (rather than merely following the four-year halving schedule), the traditional halving-based cycle framework might no longer be valid. He writes that he considers the halving-cycle thesis “over” but that price confirmation is required to convince the broader market.
For example, if bitcoin breaks out independently of a halving event, this suggests the market is moving into a new regime, perhaps one governed by ETF flows, institutional adoption, macro sentiment, and on-chain data, rather than purely supply shocks.
For token issuers, blockchain infrastructure projects, and new crypto assets, this shift means that being aligned with the changing regime (e.g., servicing institutional flows, compliance, custody, real-world asset tokenization) may be more important than being aligned with a halving event narrative.
Practical Implications for Crypto Investors & Blockchain Practitioners
Given the above, here are some actionable implications for readers looking for new crypto assets, income opportunities, or real‐world blockchain use-cases:
- Positioning for risk-on: If the macro/geopolitical backdrop remains positive, the market may rotate from safe havens (gold, US Treasuries) into higher‐beta crypto. That means altcoins, DeFi protocols, and new token issuance events may benefit.
- Monitor ETF flows: Keep an eye on ETF inflows/outflows (both gold and bitcoin/crypto ETFs). A shift of capital from traditional assets into crypto vehicles could be an early signal of a broader trend.
- Watch the BTC/Gold ratio: When bitcoin starts materially outperforming gold, it may mark the end of fear and the beginning of speculative expansion. Investors wanting to capture “next wave” assets should be alert.
- Token positioning for institutional regime: Given the potential new regime (ETF flows, institutional adoption), new tokens or projects that serve financial infrastructure, tokenization, custody, regulated issuance, or high-yield opportunities may attract capital. Tokens built purely around narrative (e.g., “halving cycle”) might be less relevant.
- Set risk controls: Even though the forecast is optimistic, it is by no means guaranteed. As one article rightly points out, market dynamics are constantly evolving.
Risks & What Could Go Wrong
It is important for seriousness-minded investors and practitioners to remember that bullish scenarios always carry risks. Key risk factors in this context include:
- The favourable macro/geopolitical conditions may not hold. A sudden escalation in US-China tension, or a surprise hawkish pivot by the Fed, could reverse sentiment.
- ETF flows are forward-looking but often lag actual asset price moves. If flows disappoint (i.e., investors stay cautious), the momentum may fade.
- A breakout above $100k or a new high is not a guarantee of a sustained new regime. Price corrections, liquidity shocks and external risks remain real.
- The narrative that “bitcoin may never drop below $100,000 again” is bold and may create overconfidence; markets could test that support and still bounce.
- Smaller tokens and projects always carry idiosyncratic risks (liquidity, regulatory, team execution) even in a bullish regime.
Conclusion
The convergence of favourable macro-geopolitical developments, improved investor sentiment (as evidenced by the BTC/Gold ratio rebound), and institutional flows moving into crypto has created a compelling case that bitcoin may be entering a new structural phase — one in which it “may never” drop below the $100,000 mark, according to Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick.
For crypto investors and blockchain practitioners seeking the next source of yield or the next emergent asset class: this moment may represent a shift from a “halving cycle” paradigm to an “institutional + macro regime” paradigm. That means new projects should seriously consider institutional and compliance readiness, tokenomics aligned with real-world asset use, and visible flow signals.
That said, prudent risk management remains essential. Markets are dynamic, and predictions—even from major institutions—are not guarantees. If the optimistic scenario plays out, however, we may look back at this week as the turning point where bitcoin locked in $100 k as a new floor, and where the next wave of blockchain innovation found tailwinds.
