Main Points:
- Current sell pressure from long-term holders around the $100,000 mark is likely to dissipate once Bitcoin surpasses $130,000–$150,000
- Liquidity needs will increasingly be met through borrowing against BTC rather than outright selling, further tightening available supply
- Institutional voices like Michael Saylor insist there will be no more “crypto winters,” projecting Bitcoin at $500,000 to $1,000,000
- On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows over 550,000 BTC withdrawn from centralized exchanges since July 2024, indicating a sustained supply contraction
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing renewed inflows and Coinbase Premium has reached multi-month highs, signaling robust institutional and retail demand
- Miner issuance is limited to roughly 450 BTC per day (≈$50 million at current prices), underscoring an impending scarcity narrative
- Assets under management in crypto funds hit a record $167 billion in May 2025, reflecting a shift toward digital assets as portfolio hedges
1. The Waning Sell Pressure at New Highs
Bitcoin’s march above $100,000 has been accompanied by periodic bouts of profit-taking from early adopters. According to Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, much of the current sell pressure stems from holders who bought years ago at low prices and are realizing gains once Bitcoin crosses the $100,000 threshold. However, Horsley argues that this dynamic will “peter off” once Bitcoin breaks into the $130,000–$150,000 range, as those same long-term holders will choose to continue holding rather than selling into fresh all-time highs.
By shifting their mindset from profit-taking to wealth preservation, these holders remove a significant supply headwind, clearing the way for more sustainable upside momentum.
2. Borrowing Demand: A New Liquidity Engine
Rather than liquidating their holdings, Bitcoin owners in need of cash are increasingly opting to borrow against their BTC collateral. This trend, highlighted by Horsley, transforms Bitcoin into a form of pledgeable collateral, enabling liquidity without increasing sell-side supply. As lending markets expand, demand for loans backed by BTC is expected to “further propel the price,” since outstanding BTC on exchanges drops while on- and off-exchange lending continues to grow.
This paradigm shift—where BTC is treated akin to real estate equity—marks a fundamental change in market structure, reducing reliance on spot sales and reinforcing scarcity as a price catalyst.
3. Institutional Bullishness: The Michael Saylor Thesis
On June 11, Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy (now Strategy), told Bloomberg that “the Bitcoin bear market is unlikely to return. We’re past that phase; if Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to $1 million”. He pointed to U.S. political support—from President Trump to Treasury officials—as well as mounting institutional adoption, as evidence of a sustained bull run.
Saylor emphasized that only around 450 BTC are newly mined each day (approximately $50 million worth), and this “natural supply” is being absorbed almost entirely by corporate treasuries and ETFs. Given that daily demand from entities like Strategy exceeds miner issuance, the net effect is a deflationary supply curve.
4. Exchange Withdrawals: A Tale of Supply Contraction
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant reports that centralized exchange wallets have shed over 550,000 BTC since July 2024, falling from roughly 1.55 million BTC to 1.01 million BTC. Such large-scale withdrawals suggest a collective move toward cold storage and long-term holding, significantly reducing the amount of BTC available for immediate sale.
This trend has been accompanied by record highs in Coinbase Premium—where U.S. buyers pay a higher price than global average—underscoring robust domestic demand absorbing the shrinking supply on exchanges.
5. ETF Inflows and Coinbase Premium: Demand Indicators
June 11 saw a resumption of net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with $165 million entering Bitcoin products and $240 million into Ethereum ETFs, marking 18 straight days of ETH ETF inflows. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium hit its highest point since early February, reflecting strong buying pressure from U.S. retail and institutional investors.
These flows are particularly meaningful because ETFs offer a regulated and familiar route for institutional capital to access Bitcoin. As inflows continue, they not only absorb spot supply but also signal greater confidence in the asset’s long-term prospects.
6. Miner Supply Constraints Reinforce Scarcity Narrative
The Bitcoin network currently releases just 450 BTC per day through mining rewards—equivalent to about $50 million at present prices.
Michael Saylor notes that when this entire daily miner issuance is purchased by institutions and treasury buyers, there is effectively no “natural supply” left for regular market participants, intensifying scarcity dynamics.
Such a low issuance rate, combined with rising demand from ETF products and corporate treasuries, creates a structural imbalance favoring price appreciation until new demand plateaus or supply increases via coin unlocks or miner sell-offs.
7. Crypto Fund Growth: Institutional Portfolio Shift
According to Morningstar, assets under management in crypto funds reached a record $167 billion in May 2025, driven by $7.05 billion in net inflows—our highest since December 2024. This influx outpaced flows into traditional equity and gold funds, underscoring a strategic pivot among investors toward digital assets as part of diversified portfolios.
Factors fueling this growth include regulatory clarity from U.S. authorities, the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, and a broader search for inflation hedges amid market volatility. As more mainstream fund managers allocate to crypto, the base of institutional demand strengthens, providing a robust underpinning for future price rallies.
8. Implications for Altcoins and Broader Market
While Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics take center stage, a rising tide often lifts altcoins. As Bitcoin’s liquidity tightens and price appreciates, capital flows into alternative digital assets seeking higher leverage on blockchain innovation, DeFi protocols, and next-generation L1 projects. Traders and investors should monitor BTC dominance and capital rotation into high-conviction altcoins, especially those with clear use cases in decentralized applications and institutional partnerships.
Furthermore, secondary markets—such as DeFi lending, tokenized equities, and NFT infrastructure—stand to benefit from elevated blockchain adoption and rising token valuations.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s trajectory toward $130,000–$150,000 represents more than a psychological barrier—it is the tipping point where historical sell pressure from early adopters evaporates, and structural scarcity takes hold. Borrowing markets, institutional capital via spot ETFs, and massive exchange withdrawals are converging to tighten supply just as demand surges. With daily miner issuance capped at 450 BTC and corporate treasuries soaking up the natural supply, the foundation for a prolonged bull market is solidifying.
As BTC further cements its role as digital gold, investors can expect renewed interest across the broader crypto ecosystem, from altcoins to DeFi. While volatility remains inherent, the combination of diminishing sell-side liquidity and expanding institutional engagement points toward Bitcoin’s next major leg up—potentially cresting $500,000 and beyond in the years ahead.
