Key Points：
- Economist Alex Krüger predicts Bitcoin will likely never fall below $60,000 again.
- Bitcoin’s performance aligns with global market interest, especially amid U.S. political dynamics.
- Analysts project a potential rise to $80,000 by the end of 2024, driven by demand and options market structure.
- The $40,000 mark is considered a critical long-term support level, according to Blockstream’s Adam Back.
- Alternative indicators, such as the CVDD, suggest $26,520 as the ultimate “market bottom.”
A New Floor for Bitcoin?
As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to capture the financial world’s attention, discussions are intensifying about its fair market value and its potential to establish new support levels. Prominent economist Alex Krüger recently made headlines with a forecast that Bitcoin may never again dip below $60,000. This projection has raised significant interest, particularly as BTC aligns with political events, notably the upcoming U.S. election cycle. This report examines Krüger’s prediction and explores additional expert perspectives, suggesting that $60,000 may only be the beginning of a new era for Bitcoin valuation.
Krüger’s $60,000 Prediction: A Psychological Milestone
Alex Krüger, an influential economist and trader, publicly stated on November 5 that there is a “50% chance” Bitcoin will never again fall below $60,000. Krüger’s analysis, shared on social media, comes as Bitcoin shows resilience in the face of high volatility, especially as the cryptocurrency trades at over $68,000 following recent lows near $66,000. This outlook positions $60,000 as a key psychological level, suggesting that BTC’s current market sentiment could establish it as a durable floor.
The prediction has stirred discussions about Bitcoin’s intrinsic value and its potential to reach new all-time highs by leveraging broader market trends. Some market watchers attribute BTC’s strength to geopolitical events, such as the U.S. presidential election, which could impact financial markets and cryptocurrency adoption in the coming months.
The Role of the U.S. Election in BTC’s Performance
Bitcoin’s behavior leading up to the U.S. election has not gone unnoticed by analysts who forecast possible turbulence around the event. According to Bitfinex analysts, BTC may experience a breakout towards a record high, potentially reaching $80,000 by the end of 2024. They base their projection on the current structure of the options market and the possibility of a Republican presidential win, which could be perceived as favorable to cryptocurrencies.
Bitfinex’s analysts suggest that the political outcome could serve as a significant catalyst, encouraging both institutional and retail investors to consider Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional market fluctuations. This forecast is a reminder of Bitcoin’s dual role: both a speculative asset and a possible long-term store of value.
$40,000 as Bitcoin’s “Market Bottom”: Insights from Adam Back
While $60,000 may be the new threshold according to Krüger, other experts propose an even deeper safety net at the $40,000 level. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and creator of Hashcash, sees Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average as a vital technical indicator that shows $40,000 as a potential market bottom. This moving average smooths out daily volatility, providing a clearer view of long-term trends, and has historically offered a reliable support level during previous BTC market cycles.
In an October 20 post, Back commented on the significance of this technical floor, noting that historically, Bitcoin has tended to bounce back above this level. His observations suggest that, even in extreme scenarios, BTC may hold its ground well above traditional bear market lows, reinforcing the growing view that Bitcoin’s volatility has become more contained over time.
Exploring Alternative Indicators: CVDD and the Absolute Bottom
For a more granular view, some analysts look to the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) indicator, which pinpoints Bitcoin’s absolute “market bottom.” According to data from TradingView, the CVDD currently places Bitcoin’s deepest potential support at $26,520. CVDD considers the age of coins transacted to assess the “true” long-term support levels, offering insights into investor confidence and holding patterns.
This technical measure provides an alternative narrative, suggesting that Bitcoin’s minimum valuation could be lower than expected. However, the recent increase in BTC’s value and demand indicates that the current market cycle may never return to these historical lows, even under challenging market conditions.
The Path Forward: Sustained Growth Amid High Market Expectations
Bitcoin’s evolving price structure reflects not only growing institutional adoption but also heightened expectations of future growth among retail investors. The intersection of BTC’s projected fair value with significant political events, combined with optimistic analyses from economists like Alex Krüger, places Bitcoin in a promising position.
The widespread belief in Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against inflation, especially amid global political uncertainties, has sparked renewed interest from investors. With numerous indicators pointing toward a rising floor, Bitcoin’s upward trajectory could solidify, presenting BTC as a preferred asset class in a world increasingly wary of traditional financial systems.
Is $60,000 Bitcoin’s New Bottom Line?
As BTC approaches a new valuation standard, experts appear cautiously optimistic. Alex Krüger’s $60,000 prediction represents a shift in how the market perceives Bitcoin’s fair value, especially in a world where cryptocurrency is becoming mainstream. Meanwhile, alternative views provided by analysts like Adam Back and the CVDD metric add depth to the debate, suggesting that Bitcoin’s true floor might range between $26,520 and $60,000.
The question remains whether Bitcoin will achieve the projected $80,000 by the end of 2024. With support from growing market confidence and institutional interest, Bitcoin’s path appears promising. For investors seeking alternative revenue sources and practical blockchain applications, Bitcoin’s future, anchored by psychological thresholds, presents both opportunities and challenges as it continues to redefine its role in the global financial landscape.
