Main Points :
- Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below the $113,000 mark, triggering concerns about further downside risk.
- According to Bitfinex analysts, the short-term holder cost-basis near $113,600 is pivotal: holding above it could signal accumulation, while falling below could usher in another leg down toward ~$97,500.
- Macro-factors are playing a major role: weakening inflation data, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and easing U.S.–China trade tension are injecting both hope and caution into crypto markets.
- On-chain metrics show that the “short-term holder realised price” (STH cost basis) has climbed to ~$112,000–$113,000, and repeated retests of this level raise questions of accumulation versus exhaustion.
- For new crypto-asset hunters and blockchain practitioners, this environment signals both risk and opportunity: the flagship asset is under pressure, but a structural pivot could open paths to altcoin rotation and infrastructure breakthroughs.
1. The Current Price Landscape of Bitcoin
In late October 2025, Bitcoin failed to sustain its recovery above the $116,000 level and was pushed back below $113,000. For example, during U.S. trading hours on October 28, Bitcoin slid to around $112,700 and posted a 24-hour drop of nearly 2%. Meanwhile, its sister asset Ethereum (ETH) dropped roughly 4% and broke below the $4,000 threshold.
What’s interesting is that while equities (for instance the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite) are hitting all-time highs, crypto is not rallying in tandem. In fact, market sentiment around Bitcoin appears muted and vulnerable.
For an investor seeking new crypto assets or practical blockchain use cases, this sort of divergence matters: when Bitcoin stagnates or falls, it may provide an inflection point for alternative tokens and infrastructure plays.
2. Why the ~$113,000 Level Matters: Cost-Basis, Holders and Psychology
Short-Term Holder Cost Basis
One of the key topics analysts are focused on is the “short-term holder realised price” (STH cost basis). This is the average acquisition price of holders who have held Bitcoin for a short duration (commonly under six months). According to on-chain data, this figure has moved up toward the $112,000–$113,000 range.
Why does this matter? Because if price stays above the cost basis, short-term holders are mostly “in the money”, likely willing to hold rather than exit. But if price drops below, it could trigger increased selling as holders cut losses or shift into other assets. CryptoSlate notes this cost basis rise tightens the profit-cushion and makes corrections more acute.
Bitfinex’s Viewpoint: Accumulation vs. Breakdown
Bitfinex in its latest weekly notes emphasizes that reclaiming and holding above levels such as $113,600 would signal a transition toward accumulation. Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to defend that region, the next support region could be as low as ~$97,500.
For example, a Bitfinex report noted that after the major liquidation event of early October, failure to hold $110,000 could push Bitcoin back into the $100,000 range.
In practical terms, this means investors should watch whether Bitcoin can close and hold above that cost-basis region. For someone looking for new crypto assets or exploring infrastructure plays, this may be a gate-clearance signal: if Bitcoin enters accumulation, rotation into altcoins may follow; if not, risk-off behavior may dominate.
3. Macro Dynamics: Liquidity, Rates and Trade Tensions
Bitcoin’s fate is increasingly tied to macro forces. Several points are relevant:
- Recent U.S. inflation data came in softer than expected, raising hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Some analysis estimates a 98% chance of a 0.25% cut imminently.
- Reduced volatility: open interest in Bitcoin options has fallen, implied volatility is lower, suggesting that the market may be in a consolidation or wait-and-see mode rather than immediate breakout.
- Trade tensions, especially between the U.S. and China, have eased somewhat, reducing a macro layer of risk that weighed on crypto sentiment. Bitfinex’s note highlights this as one of the stabilizing forces.
For blockchain practitioners, this means that timing matters: if a rate cut and positive trade signals coincide, capital could flow into crypto risk assets; if data turns worse or policy surprises, the entire ecosystem may retreat.
4. Implications for Crypto-Asset Hunters and Blockchain Builders
For New Crypto Assets
When Bitcoin is under pressure or stagnating, it often forces capital to seek higher-beta opportunities—this can be altcoins, DeFi tokens, or infrastructure plays. However, it also means risk is higher: if Bitcoin breaks down, the whole market can suffer. From the current dynamics:
- If Bitcoin successfully defends the $113k–$114k region → this could act as a springboard for altcoin rotations in 2–3 weeks.
- If Bitcoin breaks down below that region → broader crypto may enter a protracted consolidation or correction phase; new assets may still pop, but under much higher risk.
For Blockchain / Practical Infrastructure Use Cases
With the macro background of eased inflation and liquidity potentially improving, infrastructure builders should watch for phases of renewed funding and partnerships. When capital flows back into crypto, opportunities emerge in:
- Wallets and custody solutions (especially as short-term holder cost basis shifts and institutional participation rises)
- Efficient swap / bridge services (as altcoin rotation may follow Bitcoin’s direction)
- DeFi infrastructure ready for renewed liquidity injection
Given your interest in building a non-custodial wallet (“dzilla Wallet”), now could be a preparatory phase: use the consolidation period to refine UX, integrate swaps (BTC⇄ETH) with transparency, and be ready for a potential liquidity inflow cycle.
5. Short-Term Scenarios & Key Technical Levels
Bullish Scenario
If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above ~$113,000 to ~$114,000, and macro events (rate cut + trade easing) align, then momentum could carry it toward the $118,000–$123,000 range in the near term. Some cycles suggest even $130,000–$144,000 if the breakout is strong.
In such a scenario, altcoins and infrastructure tokens may see renewed attention, and developers/builders should be ready to pitch or launch projects.
Base Case / Range Bound
Bitcoin may roam between ~$110,000 support and ~$116,000–$117,000 resistance for weeks until macro clarity emerges.
This scenario gives time for building and accumulation rather than immediate breakout.
Bearish Scenario
If Bitcoin falls decisively below ~$110,000 (especially below ~$108,000) and fails to reclaim the cost basis level, then a deeper pullback toward ~$97,500–$100,000 is plausible, as per Bitfinex and on-chain signals.
In this case, risk mitigation strategies become critical for new asset hunts and builders may face funding headwinds.
6. Strategic Takeaways for Investors and Builders
- Watch the cost-basis level (~$112–$113 k): This is more than just a price point—it reflects holder psychology and market structure.
- Macro alignment matters: Interest rate expectations and global trade/ geopolitical developments will steer liquidity.
- Use range periods wisely: If consolidation drags on, it is a good time to position for infrastructure, refine UX, integrate swaps, and prepare for the next inflow phase.
- Be ready for rotation: If Bitcoin moves up, altcoins could follow; if Bitcoin drops, risk-off behavior may dominate and infrastructure builders should focus on resilience and usability rather than speculative hype.
- For builders like you: With your wallet development in mind, ensure your swap mechanism (BTC→ETH and so on) is ready for increased activity, emphasising transparency (as you care about) and good UX. If Bitcoin’s move re-opens risk appetite, users will demand smooth and trustworthy platforms.
Conclusion
The current moment for the cryptocurrency market is a crossroads. The flagship asset, Bitcoin, is flirting with a critical zone around ~$113,000—indeed, this level is tied into short-term holder cost bases, on-chain metrics and broader sentiment. How it behaves now could determine whether we see a renewed accumulation phase (and thus a favourable environment for altcoins and blockchain infrastructure) or a deeper corrective phase (ushering in caution).
For investors seeking new crypto assets and builders seeking practical applications, this is a time for preparation, clarity and readiness more than blind optimism. The macro backdrop is favourable in terms of potential rate cuts and easing trade tensions, yet the real test will be whether Bitcoin can hold key levels.
From a practical standpoint: if you’re designing your wallet now, use this pause to lock in your features, integrate swap mechanisms, and focus on transparency. Because when liquidity comes back (if it does), usability and trust will matter more than mere token listings. Stay vigilant, manage your risk, and position for both outcomes.
