Main Points:
- Bitcoin’s May monthly close delivered an 11% gain, yet bearish RSI divergences have traders bracing for potential downside.
- Key support levels are identified around $100,000 and $97,000 as critical retracement targets.
- Notable analysts highlight bearish signals on weekly charts and emphasize the importance of healthy market structure.
- Institutional accumulation, led by MicroStrategy, continues to underpin market confidence amid technical headwinds.
- Broader technical indicators such as the 30-day Rate of Change (ROC) and MACD suggest weakening momentum but remain within bullish structures.
- Historical parallels to 2021’s divergence patterns offer insight into the significance of current signals, but long-term sentiment still favors new highs.
Bearish RSI Divergence and Monthly Close
Bitcoin (BTC) closed May with an 11% gain, solidifying a strong monthly performance that mirrors late-stage bull market rallies seen in past cycles. As the monthly candle sealed these gains, market participants shifted their focus to weekly charts where the Relative Strength Index (RSI) began to reveal a bearish divergence. In technical analysis, a bearish RSI divergence occurs when price makes a higher high but the RSI forms a lower high, signaling waning momentum despite rising prices. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicate that while BTC attempted to reclaim $105,000 heading into June’s weekly close, the RSI failed to confirm this move—hinting at a potential pullback.
Despite Bitcoin’s attempt to maintain its 2024 all-time highs, sustained downside pressure throughout the week brought the price back into contact with key support levels from earlier in the bull market. The RSI’s inability to keep pace with price action is notable, as this divergence often precedes corrective phases in extended rallies. Historically, when RSI divergences have formed under similar market conditions, temporary retracements of 10%–20% were common before fresh upswings resumed.
Key Support Levels: $97K and $100K
Technical analysts and traders have pinpointed $97,000 and the psychologically significant $100,000 as vital support zones should Bitcoin enter a corrective phase. The $97,000 level originates from Fibonacci retracement measurements calculated on recent bull-market swings, marking a Fair Value Gap (FVG) where buying and selling imbalances occurred during Bitcoin’s ascent. If BTC retreats to this region, it could stimulate renewed buying, as historical order book data suggest strong demand clusters just above $95,000. Meanwhile, $100,000 has emerged as a magnet for liquidity, with numerous stop orders and limit buys congregated around that round-number price. Given the level’s psychological importance, a retest of $100,000 may prompt short-term volatility, particularly if bulls fail to defend it.
CrypNuevo, a trader specializing in order book dynamics, underscores that if the market dips, $100,000 will act as a “liquidity attractor,” where substantial bids accumulate. He further warns that the price may even momentarily breach this level to sweep liquidity before rebounding, a common move in highly liquid markets. However, CrypNuevo maintains that despite short-term turbulence, the overarching bull market structure remains intact, with support converging near $84,000. This suggests that even if Bitcoin dips past $97,000, deeper corrections could find a floor before derailing the long-term uptrend.
Insights from Notable Traders: Highland, Titan of Crypto, and CrypNuevo
Prominent trader Matthew Highland highlighted the importance of the weekly candle close, stating that the level near $104,450—where Bitcoin formed a local top on December 17, 2024—is critical to sustaining bullish momentum. Highland’s analysis, shared on social media, illustrated a bearish divergence between price and RSI on the weekly chart. He emphasized that if Bitcoin fails to hold above this zone, traders should prepare for a deeper pullback.
Another influential voice, Titan of Crypto, echoed this caution by pointing out that while the weekly RSI divergence has not yet fully confirmed, its mere formation warrants attention. According to Titan of Crypto, a confirmed divergence on the weekly chart could “cast a wide shadow over bullish sentiment,” potentially triggering a shift in positioning from leveraged longs to cautious accumulation. His chart analysis incorporated the same FVG levels—$97,000 and $90,000—emphasizing their significance as potential downside targets that align with market structure weak points.
CrypNuevo’s commentary on order book liquidity complements these technical views by offering a microstructure perspective. He notes that the support around $84,000 is a key macro-level anchor, but in the near term, $100,000 and $97,000 will determine whether Bitcoin can weather the current divergence. CrypNuevo argues that even if price drops temporarily below $100,000, the presence of bids just below that level should cushion the decline, effectively making any dip a short-term buying opportunity for institutional and retail participants alike.
Institutional Accumulation and On-Chain Dynamics
Amid these technical headwinds, institutional players continue to underpin the market. MicroStrategy, renowned for its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy, recently added 4,020 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 580,250 BTC. This ongoing accumulation suggests that at least one major entity perceives current prices as attractive, thereby providing an implicit floor under Bitcoin’s value. Institutional demand has historically played a key role in sustaining bull markets once retail sentiment begins to waver under technical pressure.
On-chain metrics further reinforce the narrative that institutions are not deterred by short-term divergences. Weekly on-chain transaction volumes have remained consistent, and exchange outflows continue to outpace inflows—indicating steady demand for hodling. Furthermore, Glassnode data show that long-term holders have not significantly capitulated, with on-chain supply composition remaining stable. When divergence signals appear in late-stage rallies, muted on-chain activity by long-term holders has historically marked corrective pauses rather than full trend reversals. This dynamic suggests that while a pullback to $97,000 or $100,000 is possible, institutional conviction may prevent a collapse to lower structural supports.
Broader Technical Indicators: ROC and MACD Signals
Beyond RSI, other momentum metrics are flashing warning signs. The 30-day Rate of Change (ROC) on Bitcoin’s daily chart has formed a bearish divergence, wherein price made a fresh high but the ROC failed to do the same—signaling that month-over-month gains are losing steam. CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole highlights that this ROC divergence, coupled with a negative MACD histogram on the daily chart, indicates weakening momentum even though Bitcoin remains within a broader upward channel.
These divergences on lower timeframes often presage short-term corrections, especially when coinciding with critical support retests. However, as long as Bitcoin holds above major support levels—specifically $100,000 and $97,000—these corrections can be viewed as “buying the dip.” Comparisons to 2021 show that despite similar divergence patterns, institutional accumulation and macroeconomic tailwinds propelled Bitcoin to new highs after brief pullbacks.
Historical Context and Market Structure
Drawing parallels with 2021’s late-cycle behavior, analysts note that Bitcoin has often exhibited bearish divergences preceding short-term corrections that ultimately strengthened the bull market’s structure. In early 2021, a bearish RSI divergence formed while Bitcoin rallied toward $60,000, leading to a brief 20% pullback before a subsequent ascent to $69,000. This pattern underscores the importance of healthy consolidations for trend sustainability; without corrective phases, asset prices can become overheated, leaving them vulnerable to more severe reversals.
The concept of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) is also critical in understanding where corrections are likely to stabilize. In the current cycle, the FVGs around $97,000 and $90,000 represent zones where buying pressure historically overtook selling pressure during Bitcoin’s ascent. These gaps tend to act like “magnets,” drawing price back to fill imbalances before resuming higher. Traders refer to these as healthy market structure realignments. The repeated interaction with these FVG levels suggests that if Bitcoin dips, it could find robust support before challenging new highs—consistent with past cycles where intermediate pullbacks served as springboards for sustained rallies.
Outlook: Consolidation, Potential Upside, and Risks
Analysts at Coin Edition project that June 2025 may unfold as a period of consolidation or shallow correction following the strong rallies of April and May. While lower timeframe charts exhibit fatigue, the broader structure remains bullish as long as Bitcoin holds above $100,000. The report suggests that dips below $100,000 should be viewed as buying opportunities, with $97,000 acting as a secondary safety net. If those levels hold, Bitcoin could attempt another run at all-time highs, with $105,000 marking the initial resistance to watch.
Investopedia’s recent analysis indicates that a decisive close above $100,000 would target $107,000 next, based on a measured move from a broken four-month falling wedge pattern. On the downside, they highlight $85,000 as a critical support area, aligning with prior breakout levels. If Bitcoin breaches $97,000 decisively, a deeper pullback toward $90,000 or even $85,000 could materialize, but these levels have historically been attractive to longer-term investors and institutions.
MarketWatch commentary adds that broader macro factors—such as a weakening U.S. dollar and declining equity markets—could support Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative, potentially helping it reclaim $100,000 if it can break above the $88,000 resistance in the near term. However, if macro sentiment shifts against risk assets, Bitcoin could face pressure that exacerbates technical divergences, making a move toward $90,000 more likely.
Ultimately, the interplay between technical signals, institutional buying, and macroeconomic drivers will determine whether Bitcoin’s current pullback is shallow or more pronounced. As divergence signals persist, traders should monitor on-chain data and order book dynamics closely. Should BTC hold above $97,000 and $100,000, it could establish a foundation for the next leg up. Conversely, a failure to defend these levels could usher in a deeper correction to $90,000 or below—potentially marking the end of the current phase and a reset before the next bull wave.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s May monthly close reflected strong bullish resolve, delivering an 11% gain that extended the 2025 rally. Yet, the emergence of bearish RSI divergences on weekly and daily charts has injected caution into trader sentiment, pointing toward possible retracements. Key support levels at $100,000 and $97,000—anchored by Fair Value Gaps and psychological thresholds—will serve as litmus tests for Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its upward trajectory. Influential analysts such as Matthew Highland, Titan of Crypto, and CrypNuevo have underscored the significance of these levels, advocating for disciplined risk management amid technical headwinds.
On-chain metrics and institutional accumulation, exemplified by MicroStrategy’s continued buying, provide a counterbalance to short-term bearish setups, suggesting that deeper structural support remains intact. Additional momentum indicators like the 30-day ROC and MACD reinforce the notion of a healthy consolidation rather than a trend reversal, as long as core support zones hold firm. Historical analogies to the 2021 bull cycle highlight that intermediate corrections often pave the way for renewed breakouts, ensuring long-term trend sustainability.
Looking forward, Bitcoin is poised for a period of consolidation in June 2025, with potential shallow corrections offering buying opportunities rather than signaling the end of the bull market. Traders and investors should remain vigilant around $100,000 and $97,000, recognizing that the market may dip to these levels to refuel upward momentum. Should Bitcoin successfully defend these zones, it will likely resume its march toward new highs—perhaps testing $107,000 next. However, failure to uphold support could spark a deeper retracement to $90,000 or below, introducing short-term volatility but also presenting attractive entry points for long-term holders. In sum, while bearish divergence warns of a near-term pullback, the broader bullish foundation appears resilient, leaving Bitcoin well-positioned to continue its upward journey once this consolidation phase concludes.
