Key Points:
- Bitcoin dipped to a low of $104,401 after Wall Street’s opening, triggering “rug pull” concerns among traders.
- Order book analysis reveals liquidity spoofing, suggesting potential cascading sell-offs if key levels fail.
- Analysts warn that significant volatility lies ahead, with downside support near $102K and upside targets as high as $125K.
- The U.S. dollar has rebounded from three-year lows, often exerting inverse pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
- Despite recent corrections, institutional derivatives data shows pro traders maintaining a bullish bias.
- Broader macro factors—Fed rate cut expectations and Middle East tensions—continue to shape market sentiment.
Market Overview
On June 17, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) broke below the $105,000 mark, with its intraday low settling at $104,401 following the commencement of Wall Street trading hours. This decline represents a roughly 1.5% drop from the prior day’s close, marking the eleventh consecutive hourly candle as bearish—a rare phenomenon that left bulls significantly subdued. The sell-off coincided with heightened volatility across global markets, driven in part by renewed geopolitical tensions and shifting expectations around U.S. monetary policy.
Trading volumes on major exchanges spiked as stop-loss orders were triggered en masse near critical support levels. Market participants monitored order books closely, noting how apparent buy walls at $104,000 and $102,000 were rapidly pulled or filled, exacerbating downward momentum. Such price action reflects a market on edge, with traders bracing for potential whip-saw movements that could extend well beyond the current range.
Rug Pull Risks and Order Book Spoofing
One of the most alarming developments in recent days has been the resurgence of liquidity spoofing—colloquially known as “rug pulls”—in Bitcoin’s order books. Material Indicators, a trading-resources provider, highlighted how large buy orders would appear at key price points only to vanish moments before execution, leaving unsuspecting traders with unfilled bids and accelerating the downturn.
Spoofing tactics like these are employed by sophisticated actors seeking to manipulate market perception and induce panic selling. By placing fake orders at $105,000 and $104,000, manipulators can create the illusion of robust support, luring in breakout bulls. When the price nears those levels, the spoofed orders are withdrawn, causing abrupt price slides that trigger cascading liquidation across margin and futures markets.
Such tactics underscore the importance of vigilance and the use of on-chain and off-chain data analytics. Traders are now watching for shifts in order book depth and cancelled order ratios to gauge underlying market intent. Should Bitcoin decisively break below $104,000, the next psychological floor sits near $102,000, where actual liquidity has historically been concentrated.
Trader Sentiment and Derivatives Indicators
Despite the immediate pressures, professional Bitcoin traders remain largely optimistic, as evidenced by stable derivatives metrics. BTC futures open interest has recovered following the late-May correction, and options skew indicates a continued preference for upside calls over downside puts, suggesting that seasoned market participants anticipate a rebound rather than a protracted bear phase.
Adding to the mixed signals is John Bollinger’s recent bearish technical pattern warning. On June 4, the Bollinger Bands creator identified a “Three Pushes to a High” formation on daily BTC/USD charts, typically signaling the exhaustion of bullish momentum and foreshadowing a corrective phase. This pattern coincided with a 6.5% decline from late May highs and underscored the risk of deeper retracements if support near $104,000 fails to hold.
Conversely, bullish sentiment is reflected in retail and institutional call-options flows. Over half of the derivatives bets on platforms like Deribit currently target a price above $125,000 by month-end, highlighting traders’ conviction that the recent dip is a buying opportunity rather than a trend reversal. Such divergent positioning—bearish technical patterns on spot charts versus bullish options skew—points to an impending resolution in favor of a decisive directional move.
Macro Drivers: U.S. Dollar Dynamics and Geopolitical Tensions
Bitcoin often exhibits an inverse correlation with the U.S. dollar index (DXY), and recent dollar strength has coincided with BTC’s pullback. The DXY has rebounded from multi-year lows, buoyed by repositioning ahead of expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. Traders widely anticipate that the Fed will begin trimming rates in September, with as many as two cuts priced in for the remainder of 2025 according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Simultaneously, heightened tensions in the Middle East—particularly between Israel and Iran—have driven a flight to traditional safe havens such as gold and treasury bonds, temporarily diverting flows from risk assets like cryptocurrencies. While gold has rallied modestly, approaching resistance near $2,300 per ounce, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have climbed toward 4.50%, reflecting a complex interplay of inflation expectations and geopolitical risk premiums.
Despite these headwinds, some analysts argue that a sustained dollar rally could be fleeting. Historical precedents show that extreme short positions in the DXY often lead to sharp reversals, which in turn could reignite Bitcoin’s upside momentum as liquidity chases alternative stores of value. Market strategist Guilherme Tavares notes that the DXY’s RSI is in deeply oversold territory, hinting at a bullish divergence and potential dollar pullback in the weeks ahead.
Future Price Projections
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s price trajectory will likely hinge on two critical thresholds: downside support around $102,000–$103,000 and upside resistance near $110,000–$112,000. A breach of the lower band could trigger accelerated liquidations, drawing BTC toward former swing lows. Conversely, a successful bounce above $110,000 could pave the way for a retest of all-time highs above $109,000, and potentially new records.
Derivatives markets provide additional clues. The premium on perpetual futures, often referred to as “funding rates,” has remained positive despite spot weakness, indicating that longs are willing to pay for leverage. Meanwhile, open interest in Bitcoin options has expanded by 15% over the past month, underscoring growing appetite for volatility plays on both sides of the market.
On the optimistic end, some traders forecast a mid-year rally to $125,000 fueled by renewed institutional inflows and favorable regulatory developments in major jurisdictions. In particular, U.S. Senate passage of the GENIUS Act signals growing legislative support for stablecoin frameworks, which could catalyze broader crypto adoption and bolster capital inflows into BTC.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s flirtation with the $104,000 level has reignited perennial debates around manipulation, macro correlations, and the sustainability of the current bull market. While order book spoofing raises legitimate “rug pull” alarms, derivatives data and options flows continue to tilt in favor of a rebound. The interplay between a resurgent U.S. dollar, Middle East geopolitics, and domestic monetary policy will dictate near-term price action. Ultimately, traders and investors should brace for heightened volatility, remain vigilant against spoofing tactics, and monitor key support and resistance levels closely as Bitcoin prepares for what may be its next major move.
