Main Points:
- Bitcoin nearly reached $96,000 on April 29, marking its strongest level since late February.
- Broad crypto markets showed modest gains, led by a 6.3% rise in Bitcoin Cash (BCH).
- U.S. equities continued to recover from early-April tariff fears, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each up ~0.55%.
- Despite ominous economic data—weak consumer confidence and declining job openings—markets shrugged off concerns.
- Bitwise’s Jeff Park cautions that investors may be “blind” to underlying risks, likening potential mispricing to a fundamental shift in the concept of “risk-free” assets.
Bitcoin’s Breakout: Nearing $96,000
On April 29, Bitcoin (BTC) climbed roughly 1% over 24 hours, trading near $95,400 and pushing toward $96,000 for the first time since late February. This breakout reflects renewed optimism after a period of consolidation below the $90,000–$92,000 range. Technical indicators point to strong momentum: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 60, and moving averages are trending upward, suggesting the possibility of further upside if daily close prices sustain above $95,000.
The catalyst for Bitcoin’s rally appears twofold. First, risk-on sentiment has resurged following the dissipation of fears around President Trump’s proposed tariffs in early April. Second, renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve could delay or reduce the magnitude of rate cuts—as economic data continues to show resilience—has pushed investors back into cryptocurrencies as a hedge.
Crypto Market Breadth: Select Altcoins Shine
The CoinDesk 20 Index—which tracks the largest 20 crypto assets by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins, exchange tokens, and meme coins—rose 1.1% on April 29. Among its components, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) led the pack, surging 6.3% amid speculative buying and renewed developer activity ahead of an upcoming protocol upgrade. Other notable performers included:
- Solana (SOL): Up 16% year-to-date driven by institutional interest in high-speed smart-contract platforms.
- Ethereum (ETH): Up 2.5%, supported by ongoing DeFi growth and anticipation of a major layer-2 scaling rollout.
- Chainlink (LINK): Gaining 4% as oracle networks benefit from rising decentralized application usage.
These divergences underscore a growing bifurcation in crypto markets, where well-funded projects with clear upgrade roadmaps and developer ecosystems attract capital, while lower-liquidity altcoins struggle to keep pace.
Equities Recover Tariff Panic Losses
U.S. stock indices also posted moderate gains on April 29, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbing approximately 0.55% each. This rally marks a continuation of the rebound that began in mid-April after a brief “tariff panic” sparked by rumored increases in import duties. Tech and consumer-discretionary sectors led the advance, buoyed by strong quarterly earnings reports and easing concerns over supply-chain disruptions.
The resilience in equities contrasts sharply with some dour macro indicators released in the same week:
- Consumer Confidence: According to the Conference Board, consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level since May 2020, reflecting worries over tariffs and geopolitical tension.
- Job Openings (JOLTS): March job openings dropped to 7.19 million from an expected 7.50 million, marking the first sub-7.5 million reading in six months.
Despite these data points, investors appear focused on the prospect of continued Fed accommodation and healthy corporate profits, rather than short-term economic headwinds.
Tariff Policy and Economic Data: A Tale of Two Narratives
While fresh economic data pointed to slowing activity—particularly in consumer outlook and labor demand—markets largely ignored these red flags. Many strategists attribute this dissonance to the belief that tariff policy uncertainty will force the Fed to maintain lower interest rates for longer, effectively capping borrowing costs.
On April 29, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo announced a new trade agreement with a major partner (pending legislative approval), which some analysts believe will further temper tariff-related risks. However, concerns persist that “weaponizing” the dollar through tariff policy could erode U.S. creditworthiness on the global stage, as highlighted by Bitwise’s Jeff Park.
“Blind” Markets: Insights from Bitwise’s Jeff Park
Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, took to social media (X) to express bewilderment at the market’s apparent complacency:
“I can’t grasp how blind this market is. If the ‘weaponization’ of the dollar permanently damages U.S. credibility, then any Fed rate cut is futile. This is what I call a misprice: if the concept of ‘risk-free’ collapses, global capital costs will rise, and short-sighted focus on whether the Fed cuts in May or June is meaningless.”
Park’s remarks underscore a deeper philosophical question: can traditional financial markets—and by extension, crypto investors—reconcile the notion of a truly “risk-free” asset in an era of geopolitical brinkmanship and monetary intervention? If not, the cost of capital may face an upward repricing, altering the investment landscape across asset classes.
Implications for Crypto Investors
For those seeking new crypto assets and revenue opportunities, the current environment presents both promise and peril:
- Momentum Plays: Assets like BCH and SOL may continue outperforming in the short term, driven by upgrade hype and network usage growth.
- Macro Hedging: Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative remains intact. As a non-sovereign digital asset, BTC may serve as a hedge against currency debasement in an era of tariff-driven fiscal policy.
- Risk Management: Park’s warning suggests that investors should stress-test portfolios for scenarios where “risk-free” rates rise unexpectedly, potentially triggering repricing in both equity and crypto markets.
Practical steps include setting clear stop-loss levels, diversifying across layer-1 and layer-2 protocols, and monitoring macroeconomic indicators—particularly central bank communications and trade policy developments.
Conclusion
On April 29, Bitcoin’s surge past $95,000 and the steady advance in U.S. stocks signal a market eager to look past near-term economic headwinds. Yet voices like Jeff Park caution that such optimism may be misplaced—or even “blind”—if the fundamental underpinnings of risk and creditworthiness are shifting beneath our feet. For crypto investors charting the next frontier, the challenge lies in balancing momentum-driven gains with robust risk management, ensuring that the pursuit of new assets and yield does not overlook the broader currents shaping global finance.
