Main Points:
- Bitcoin surpasses the Japanese Major Psychological Line 10 MM JPY (＄66,970) mark for the first time in two months, supported by key U.S. economic indicators and political events.
- U.S. inflation and Trump’s rising victory odds in prediction markets positively influence Bitcoin prices.
- Hash Ribbon buy signal suggests an uptrend in Bitcoin’s hash rate and potential further price gains.
- Bitcoin ETF flows show strong capital inflows, further supporting the price rally.
- Technical indicators point to potential targets at $68,000, $70,000, and beyond.
Market Overview: Bitcoin’s Ascent to the Japanese Major Psychological Line 10 MM JPY (＄66,970)
During the week of October 12 to October 18, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a significant rise in value, crossing the ＄66,970 threshold for the first time in over two months. This strong performance was driven by a combination of favorable U.S. economic data and political developments. Early in the week, U.S. inflation showed signs of slowing, while the probability of Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election surged in prediction markets, pushing Bitcoin’s price upward.
Impact of U.S. Economic and Political Events
Bitcoin’s price movements have become increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic and political factors. For instance, the U.S. inflation report, indicating a deceleration in price increases, alleviated concerns about aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Additionally, comments by Federal Reserve officials, hinting at possible rate cuts, fueled further optimism in the market.
At the same time, Donald Trump’s rising odds in the upcoming presidential election, as reflected in the Polymarket prediction platform, further boosted Bitcoin. By mid-October, Trump’s chances had reached over 60%, correlating with Bitcoin’s strength. This political factor, combined with the broader economic landscape, helped push Bitcoin’s value past 10 million yen by the end of the week.
Hash Ribbon Buy Signal and Hash Rate Recovery
One of the key technical indicators driving Bitcoin’s bullish momentum was the Hash Ribbon buy signal, which appeared in mid-October. The Hash Ribbon, which analyzes Bitcoin’s hash rate, indicated a potential uptrend. After a period of weakness in September, Bitcoin’s hash rate showed signs of recovery, and by October, the buy signal was triggered, suggesting increased network security and miner confidence.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Supporting the Rally
In addition to favorable macroeconomic and technical signals, Bitcoin benefitted from strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. After experiencing capital outflows amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in September, Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $300 million in daily inflows throughout the week. This surge in investor interest helped sustain Bitcoin’s price above 10 million yen.
Technical Analysis: Future Price Targets
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s current support and resistance levels suggest that the rally may continue. With prices testing $68,000, Bitcoin is approaching critical resistance at $70,000, a level last seen in July. Beyond that, the next key targets lie at $72,000 and $73,800, marking significant milestones from earlier in the year.
While uncertainties remain regarding Federal Reserve policy and broader market trends, Bitcoin’s technical indicators and capital inflows point to further potential upside.
Bitcoin’s recent surge past $66,970 marks a significant recovery, driven by a combination of economic, political, and technical factors. The Hash Ribbon buy signal and strong Bitcoin ETF inflows are particularly encouraging, suggesting that Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory in the coming weeks. With critical resistance levels at $70,000 and beyond, Bitcoin traders and investors will be closely monitoring macroeconomic and political developments to gauge the cryptocurrency’s next moves.
