Main Points：
- Short-Term Surge: Bitcoin experienced a temporary increase of 500,000 yen (＄3,335), driven by market reactions to US economic indicators and expectations of an imminent announcement regarding Trump’s tariff policy.
- Economic Data Impact: A weaker-than-expected US ISM manufacturing index initially spurred fears of economic deterioration, causing a brief sell-off.
- Tariff Policy Anticipation: With Trump expected to announce “mutual tariffs” on April 3, market participants held back from aggressive selling, resulting in a rebound and further upward momentum for Bitcoin.
- Asset Correlations: Bitcoin now exhibits high positive correlations with major US stock indices (S&P500 and Nasdaq100) and a clear inverse correlation with gold, indicating its role as a risk asset in the current market.
- Altcoin Market Outflows: Meanwhile, the altcoin market has seen declining open interest and capital outflows, suggesting that investor focus is shifting towards Bitcoin during this period of uncertainty.
- Key Upcoming Dates: The market is closely watching critical events including Trump’s tariff policy announcement and important US economic data releases (ISM non-manufacturing index on April 3 and US employment statistics on April 4).
1. Introduction: A Volatile Market Reaction
On April 2, Bitcoin’s price saw a notable surge of approximately 500,000 yen (＄3,335) compared to the previous day. This sharp rally occurred despite earlier volatility triggered by disappointing US economic data. Market participants initially reacted to a significantly lower-than-expected ISM manufacturing index, which raised concerns about the health of the US economy and prompted a brief sell-off. However, expectations surrounding an upcoming policy announcement by President Trump regarding “mutual tariffs” on April 3 helped to ease these fears and contributed to the subsequent rally.
The market’s reaction reflects the delicate balance between macroeconomic data and policy expectations. As investors digest conflicting signals, Bitcoin’s price has become highly sensitive to these events, reinforcing its status as a risk asset amid uncertainty.
2. The Impact of US Economic Data
Earlier in the trading session, the US ISM manufacturing index came in well below market expectations. This disappointing result stoked fears that the US economy might be heading toward a slowdown, leading to a temporary dip in Bitcoin’s price. Typically, such economic indicators are viewed as a barometer for investor sentiment, and in this case, they sparked a short-lived panic selling.
Yet, the market quickly turned as investors shifted their focus. While a weak manufacturing index would generally weigh on risk assets, Bitcoin’s subsequent recovery suggests that other factors—namely, expectations of policy intervention—were able to offset the negative sentiment. The contrasting responses to these data points illustrate the complex interplay between macroeconomic signals and market expectations for policy announcements.
3. Anticipation of Trump’s Tariff Policy
A major catalyst behind Bitcoin’s recovery on April 2 was the anticipation of a policy announcement by President Trump. With the prospect of “mutual tariffs” to be unveiled in the early hours of April 3, many investors adopted a wait-and-see approach rather than engaging in a panic sell-off. This cautious stance allowed buyers to step in, leading to a rally that pushed Bitcoin higher by approximately 500,000 yen (＄3,335).
The tariff policy is being closely watched because it directly influences investor sentiment regarding risk and trade. In this environment, Bitcoin’s price appears to be moving in tandem with traditional risk assets such as US stock indices, underscoring its growing correlation with macroeconomic policy shifts.
4. Asset Correlation and Market Sentiment
Recent analysis shows that Bitcoin now has a high positive correlation with major US equity indices. Over a two-month period, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P500 has reached +0.82 and with the Nasdaq100, +0.83—signifying that it is increasingly viewed as a risk asset. Conversely, Bitcoin exhibits a strong inverse correlation with gold (around -0.69), indicating that when investors flock to safe-haven assets like gold during times of economic uncertainty, Bitcoin tends to fall. These contrasting correlations highlight Bitcoin’s dual role: while it is increasingly seen as a growth asset driven by institutional inflows, it still remains susceptible to broader macroeconomic shifts.
At the same time, the altcoin market is displaying signs of capital outflow. Open interest across altcoins has been decreasing, signaling that investors are moving their funds away from alternative tokens—likely due to a combination of market uncertainty and the dominant performance of Bitcoin.
5. Current Market Snapshot
Let’s review the key price data for Bitcoin as of the latest update:
- Opening Price: 12,684,746 yen (＄84,618)
- High Price: 13,378,048 yen (＄89,243)
- Low Price: 11,284,730 yen (＄75,279)
- Recent Price: 12,801,999 yen (＄85,400)
The 1-hour chart shows that Bitcoin initially fell from its opening price to a low of 11,284,730 yen (＄75,279), then rebounded sharply to a high of 13,378,048 yen (＄89,243) before falling again. Recently, however, the price has begun to recover, now stabilizing at 12,801,999 yen (＄85,400). This oscillation underscores the prevailing volatility and the market’s sensitivity to external economic signals and policy expectations.
6. Technical Analysis and Outlook
Technical indicators remain a crucial tool for gauging Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. Currently, two key levels have been identified on the chart:
- Support Level: Around 11,200,000 yen (＄74,714)
- Resistance Level: Approximately 15,000,000 yen (＄100,063)
Bitcoin’s price has decisively broken below the 15,000,000 yen (＄100,063) resistance level, although recent rebounds from lower prices have provided some buying interest. For Bitcoin to establish a sustained upward trend, it will eventually need to break above the resistance level and maintain a stable close above that threshold.
Short-term analysis of the 1-hour chart suggests that the upward momentum could continue, driven by a strong rebound from recent lows. However, as with any volatile asset, the market remains highly reactive to further macroeconomic developments. In the coming days, critical US economic data—such as the ISM non-manufacturing index on April 3 and US employment statistics on April 4—will likely play a significant role in shaping investor sentiment and influencing Bitcoin’s price movement.
7. Conclusion: Navigating Volatility Amid Policy Expectations
Bitcoin’s rally of 500,000 yen (＄3,335) on April 2 illustrates how sensitive the digital asset is to macroeconomic data and policy expectations. Although recent economic indicators initially caused a sharp sell-off, the anticipated announcement of Trump’s tariff policy helped stabilize the market and spur a rebound.
While short-term momentum appears positive, investors must remain cautious. The key to a sustained uptrend lies in a decisive breakout above critical resistance levels and the eventual resolution of macroeconomic uncertainties. As the market prepares for further important US economic releases in the coming days, it remains essential for investors to monitor both technical indicators and policy developments closely.
In summary, Bitcoin’s current performance reflects a complex interplay of market sentiment, economic data, and policy expectations. Although the recent uptick is encouraging, the underlying volatility and uncertainty serve as reminders of the challenges inherent in the crypto market. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced approach, keeping a close eye on evolving economic and policy factors that will continue to influence Bitcoin’s trajectory.
