Main Points:
- Optimized Trend Tracker (OTT) flashed a bullish signal for the first time since mid-2024, suggesting a new cycle top may be underway.
- Historical OTT signals preceded significant rallies within 12 months.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs have gathered over $9 billion in inflows in the past five weeks, underscoring growing institutional demand.
- JPMorgan reports $431 million in net inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs on May 29, led by BlackRock’s IBIT.
- On-chain data and market consensus point to $120 K as a key “price discovery” zone before a potential surge toward $200 K.
Breakout Signal Emerges
On May 28, trading account Stockmoney Lizards announced on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin had registered an unmistakable bullish breakout signal according to the Optimized Trend Tracker (OTT), marking the first such indication since mid-2024. OTT, which relies on combinations of moving averages and Average True Range (ATR) bands, is revered among traders as “the purest macro trend indicator,” capturing major directional shifts while filtering out noise. According to the X post, Bitcoin has decisively broken above its monthly OTT upper band, a technical event that historically signals readiness for a new leg up.
This breakout follows two distinct re-tests of the OTT trend line cluster, each time finding support before rebounding, mirroring patterns observed in the 2016 and 2020 cycle tops. As Stockmoney Lizards put it, “The pattern is so obvious it hurts,” highlighting the clarity of the current setup.
Historical Precedent and Retests
In previous cycles, the OTT bands functioned as dynamic support levels after initial breakouts. Once the price re-tested the band from above—often twice—it gained the momentum necessary for sustained rallies. For instance, in 2016, Bitcoin retested the OTT cluster in early 2017 before surging from $1,000 to nearly $20,000 by December. Similarly, the 2020 breakout saw retests in 2021, preceding a climb from $10,000 to an all-time high near $69,000.
The current setup has already exhibited two re-tests: the first in late 2024 and the second in Q1 2025, with Bitcoin finding support and rebounding each time. The second re-test appears to have completed as Bitcoin holds above the OTT band, reinforcing trader confidence in a new bull run.
Institutional Flows and ETF Momentum
Institutional flows into Bitcoin have accelerated markedly in recent months. According to Bloomberg data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $9 billion in cumulative inflows over the past five weeks, even as gold-backed funds saw outflows exceeding $2.8 billion in the same period. This rotation from traditional safe havens into digital assets underscores growing confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.
On May 29 alone, JPMorgan reported $431 million in net inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs, driven largely by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which accounted for $479 million of new investments. Other funds like ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) and Fidelity’s FBTC saw modest outflows, but the overall trend remains strongly positive.
Moreover, crypto index fund manager Bitwise projects that inflows to Bitcoin products could reach $120 billion by the end of 2025, fuelled by growing allocations from pension funds, corporates, sovereigns, and retail investors alike. This tidal wave of capital, combined with limited new supply issuance, sets the stage for significant upward pressure on price.
Market Sentiment and On-Chain Insights
Despite the bullish technical signals and massive inflows, market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin is entering a “price discovery” phase, where $120 K emerges as a key zone of interest. Glassnode’s “The Week Onchain” report highlights that traders may absorb selling pressure around this level before accelerating upward momentum.
Meanwhile, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data and TradingView charts show Bitcoin consolidating within a tight range, with short-term traders positioning for a breakout above $110 K. The ongoing Bitcoin 2025 Conference featured bullish commentary from macroeconomists and industry leaders but, intriguingly, failed to trigger immediate volatility—a possible sign that the market has already priced in major developments.
Macro Factors and Conference Dynamics
Global macroeconomic trends are contributing to Bitcoin’s appeal. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in 2025 have investors seeking alternatives to cash and low-yield bonds. Concurrently, geopolitical tensions and rising inflation in emerging markets are driving demand for decentralized assets with finite supply.
At the Bitcoin 2025 Conference held in Miami, speakers from leading hedge funds and tech giants emphasized Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class. Notably, several executives revealed plans to increase treasury allocations to Bitcoin, citing its historical performance during periods of currency debasement. However, memories of the 30 percent correction following last year’s conference have prompted some caution, illustrating that the market is sensitive to both hype and profit-taking cycles.
Price Targets for 2025 and Beyond
Stockmoney Lizards projects a base case target of $200 K for Bitcoin by the end of 2025, with the potential for an “extension” to $250 K in early 2026 if momentum persists. This aligns with other analysts forecasting six-figure prices, supported by shrinking supply on exchanges, growing institutional adoption, and on-chain metrics signaling accumulation by long-term holders.
Conversely, some skeptics argue that heightened regulatory scrutiny—particularly in the US and EU—and the potential for profit-taking around key psychological levels could cap upside. Yet, the combination of a bullish OTT signal, robust ETF inflows, and favorable macro tailwinds makes a convincing case for a significant bull market.
Conclusion
Bitcoin appears poised for a major bullish phase in 2025. The Optimized Trend Tracker’s breakout signal, historical retest patterns, and unprecedented institutional inflows create a potent convergence of technical, on-chain, and macro factors. While $120 K represents a critical price discovery zone, the stage is set for a parabolic move toward $200 K and possibly beyond. Market participants should remain vigilant for pullbacks around key resistance levels but prepare for a potentially transformative rally that reinforces Bitcoin’s role as a premier digital store of value.
