Main Points:
- Trump’s Potential Victory: Could propel Bitcoin toward $80,000 to $90,000 due to favorable crypto policies.
- Harris’s Potential Victory: Immediate drop in Bitcoin prices as market fears increased regulation.
- Historical Trends and November Predictions: A bullish November supported by Bitcoin’s historical performance and potential Fed rate cut.
With the upcoming U.S. presidential election intensifying between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the cryptocurrency market—particularly Bitcoin—is bracing for impactful shifts. Analysts have suggested three potential price trajectories for Bitcoin based on the election’s outcome, each scenario offering insights into Bitcoin’s possible future in the coming months and years.
Trump Victory: Bitcoin Soars to $80,000 – $90,000
If Trump wins, Bitcoin could potentially reach between $80,000 and $90,000, according to Bernstein analysts. Trump’s outspoken support for the cryptocurrency industry has sparked optimism in the market, as his proposed policies favor crypto-friendly regulations. His plans include appointing an SEC head supportive of digital assets, establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, and strengthening the United States as a Bitcoin mining hub.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown significant growth following halving events, and the next halving in April 2024 aligns closely with the U.S. election cycle, indicating a potential upswing. During prior halvings, Bitcoin experienced exponential growth: from around $12 to over $1,150 in 2012, then a subsequent surge from approximately $650 to $20,000 in 2016. The 2020 halving saw Bitcoin rise from $9,000 to its November 2021 peak of $69,000. Analysts speculate that this historical trend could bolster Bitcoin to new highs if Trump emerges victorious.
Harris Victory: Potential Immediate Decline in Bitcoin
In contrast, a Harris victory could lead to an immediate drop in Bitcoin prices. Market analyst Miles Deutscher has warned that a Harris-led administration may tighten regulatory oversight on cryptocurrencies, thus dampening Bitcoin’s appeal and resulting in a possible price decline. Concerns stem from the perception that Harris would likely maintain or even increase regulatory scrutiny on digital assets.
Evidence of this fear is reflected in Polymarket’s predictions, where increased bids are forecasting a potential Bitcoin dip to $65,000 if Harris wins. The market currently shows a 75% probability of Bitcoin touching this level, with “Yes” shares trading at 76 cents. Should Harris implement regulatory measures, the immediate sell-off might signal caution across the broader cryptocurrency market.
November: A Promising Month for Bitcoin
Historically, November has been a strong month for Bitcoin, averaging a 46% return since 2013. Prominent analyst Lark Davis has projected that a similar rally this November could drive Bitcoin above $100,000, based on current price trajectories. A Federal Reserve rate cut of 25 basis points, anticipated on November 7, could further support Bitcoin’s bullish trend.
Davis suggests that the combination of a potential Trump victory, a Fed rate cut, and Bitcoin’s historically high returns in November provides a robust foundation for positive performance this month. Currently trading at around $68,760, Bitcoin shows resilience despite a recent 7.35% drop from its weekly high of $73,600, attributed to reduced open interest and liquidation in the futures market.
Market Caution and Opportunity Post-Election
Bitcoin’s trajectory following the U.S. election is set to be influenced heavily by political outcomes. With Trump’s win potentially creating a favorable environment for cryptocurrency, and Harris’s win likely increasing regulatory pressure, traders are watching closely. November’s historical performance also plays a crucial role, with the potential for a Fed rate cut adding fuel to a potential rally. As election day nears, Bitcoin’s price movements remain under intense scrutiny, presenting both caution and opportunity for traders worldwide.
