Main Points：
- Bitcoin’s temporary pullback from $100,000 is a stepping stone to higher peaks, with $147,000 as the next potential milestone.
- On-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin is not yet overvalued compared to historical bull market peaks.
- Institutional investors are increasing holdings while retail investor activity remains subdued.
- Market cycles indicate the current rally has room to grow, driven by institutional adoption and robust metrics.
Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, recently faced a pullback after nearing the $100,000 mark. According to a report by CryptoQuant, this correction is a natural pause before a significant leap forward. With institutional investors steadily increasing their holdings and on-chain metrics signaling room for growth, Bitcoin is poised to reach a new high of $147,000 or beyond.
Bitcoin’s Resilience Amid Pullbacks
CryptoQuant’s analysis reveals that Bitcoin’s recent pullback from $100,000 is not a sign of weakness but a consolidation phase. The report highlights that Bitcoin’s current valuation has yet to reach the overextended levels seen in past bull markets. Indicators like the custom Profit and Loss (P&L) metric show Bitcoin is firmly in a bull market but far from the overheated peaks of 2021, 2017, and 2013.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Strength
One of the standout observations is the gap between Bitcoin’s current price and historical cycle peaks. The realized price band—a measure of the average price at which all Bitcoins were last transacted—suggests a potential ceiling of $147,000. Currently, the realized price stands at $36,000 to $37,000, climbing steadily.
The custom P&L metric combines multiple on-chain evaluations, indicating that Bitcoin’s valuation has ample room to grow. Past bull cycles have often peaked when realized prices multiplied by four—a threshold Bitcoin has not yet reached in this cycle.
Institutional vs. Retail Activity
Institutional investors are taking advantage of the current market conditions, increasing their Bitcoin holdings by 130,000 BTC since October. Conversely, retail investors have sold 41,000 BTC over the same period, reflecting a cautious stance.
This divergence in behavior between institutional and retail investors is significant. Unlike previous cycles marked by frenzied retail buying, the current rally is fueled by strategic accumulation by large investors. CryptoQuant notes that this trend indicates a healthier, more sustainable growth trajectory for Bitcoin.
Why $147,000 is Within Reach
Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin’s bull runs typically peak at the upper bands of realized price metrics. If this trend holds, Bitcoin could comfortably surpass $147,000 before the cycle concludes. Supporting this optimism, metrics show no signs of overvaluation, and new investor activity—while currently subdued—has room to pick up.
Galaxy Research echoes this sentiment, emphasizing Bitcoin’s growing adoption among institutional players. The possibility of Bitcoin being incorporated into national reserves adds another layer of bullishness to its outlook.
Retail Investor Hesitation: A Potential Catalyst?
One notable aspect of the current cycle is the restrained participation of retail investors. CryptoQuant points out that in past cycles, market peaks coincided with retail investors holding the majority of Bitcoin supply. At present, new addresses account for only 50% of Bitcoin holdings—far below the 80–90% observed during 2017 and 2021 peaks.
This absence of retail frenzy could mean the current rally is far from its climax. As prices climb and mainstream interest returns, retail participation may surge, potentially driving Bitcoin to new highs.
The Trump Effect and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin’s rise to $100,000 was partly fueled by market optimism following Donald Trump’s election victory. While the momentum briefly waned, analysts believe the political landscape could provide additional tailwinds for Bitcoin. A pro-crypto stance from policymakers may attract fresh investments, bolstering the long-term outlook.
Future outlook
Bitcoin’s journey toward $147,000 is underpinned by strong on-chain metrics, institutional accumulation, and restrained retail activity. While short-term corrections may occur, the broader trend remains bullish. CryptoQuant’s analysis suggests that the current rally has room to grow, potentially setting the stage for Bitcoin to break new records.
As institutional adoption accelerates and on-chain indicators remain favorable, Bitcoin’s future looks brighter than ever. For investors, the key lies in understanding the market’s evolving dynamics and seizing opportunities in the ongoing bull cycle.
