Main Points:
- Successful retest of weekly support at $104,400 signals renewed bullish momentum.
- A 10 % upside from current levels could liquidate $15.11 billion in short positions; a 10 % downside risks $9.58 billion in long liquidations.
- On-chain metrics, including a 15 % surge in mid-sized holders and rising open interest, point to short-squeeze conditions.
- Technical patterns—golden cross and descending-trend breakout—back the case for further gains, with targets above $110,000.
- Key psychological support lies at $100,000, while analysts eye a rally towards $109,000–$111,800 in the coming week.
Weekly Support Retest Sparks Bullish Outlook
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping to $100,500 on June 5 before rebounding to $105,500 by the June 8 weekly close, marking a “successful” retest of the $104,400 weekly support level for the fourth consecutive week. Renowned analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin had broken above a two-week descending trend on the daily chart and flipped it to support, noting that a daily close and retest at $106,600 would further strengthen the bullish case. This technical validation has encouraged traders to increase long exposure, positioning the market for additional upside.
Rising Liquidation Risk: A Short-Squeeze Setup
Order-book liquidity analysis by trader Cas Abbe revealed clusters of pending stops both above and below current prices, suggesting Bitcoin could act like a “magnet” for liquidity grabs. Abbe pointed out that a 10 % rally from $105,000 would trigger $15.11 billion in short liquidations, while a 10 % drop would wipe out $9.58 billion in long positions. Futures market data from CoinGlass corroborates elevated open interest, further amplifying the potential impact of large leveraged positions being forced out. Negative funding rates over the weekend have already signaled growing short interest, setting the stage for a squeeze if bulls regain control.
On-Chain Metrics and Funding Rates Paint the Picture
On-chain intelligence from Glassnode shows a 15 % increase in wallet addresses holding ≥ 0.1 BTC between June 5 and June 7, indicating accumulation by mid-sized investor. Concurrently, Binance trading volume for BTC/USDT surged by 20 % to $12 billion on June 6 versus the prior day, reflecting heightened market activity. Meanwhile, Glassnode’s weekly report noted that spot inflows have outpaced derivatives flows, suggesting the rally was propelled by genuine buy-the-dip behavior rather than pure leverage. These on-chain signals, coupled with persistently negative funding rates, underscore a market primed for a sharp move.
Technical Patterns and Macro Drivers Align
Beyond short-squeeze dynamics, technical indicators support a bullish breakout scenario. Blockchain.news reported that a golden cross—where the 20-day EMA crosses above the 50-day EMA—has formed on the daily chart, historically preceding rallies of 45–60 %. Crypto trader Jelle noted that breaking above $110,000 would initiate “price discovery,” driving Bitcoin into uncharted territory and potentially vaporizing over $3 billion in shorts above $107,000. On the macro side, fresh calls from U.S. political figures for Federal Reserve rate cuts have buoyed risk assets; Bitcoin’s resilience around $104,000 despite strong employment data demonstrates its growing maturity as a hedge against traditional markets.
Psychological Barriers and Key Levels to Watch
Market veterans stress the importance of the $100,000 mark as a psychological floor. Popular trader CrypNuevo declared on X that $100,000 is the “strongest psychological support,” ideal for new long entries with tight invalidation. Glassnode’s liquidity heatmaps also highlight significant volume clusters in the $93,000–95,000 band, which could serve as a backstop if prices revisit that range. On the upside, analysts are eyeing breakout levels at $109,000, $111,800 (May’s all-time high), and ultimately $115,000, where another $7 billion in shorts could be squeezed out according to CoinGlass data.
Analyst Predictions for the Next Major Move
Consensus among leading traders is that Bitcoin stands on the cusp of its next leg up. Cas Abbe forecast a push beyond $109,000–$110,000 in the coming week if bullish momentum persists. Meanwhile, Stockmoney Lizards’ Optimized Trend Tracker signals a macro breakout akin to previous cycles, projecting potential highs of $200,000 before year-end. CCN analysts anticipate a retest of $111,810 in June, with further extensions to the $116,000–$120,000 zone on sustained ETF and institutional inflows. These forecasts align with on-chain supply tightening and increasing exchange reserve outflows, underscoring a constrained supply environment.
Implications for Traders and Practical Applications
For active traders, the confluence of short-squeeze risk and technical breakouts presents high-reward opportunities, but also elevated volatility. Utilizing limit orders around key clusters—$105,000 for longs and $109,000 for shorts—can capitalize on expected liquidity grabs. On-chain metrics suggest monitoring funding rates and exchange net flows in real time via platforms like Glassnode or Messari to anticipate squeeze dynamics. For institutional users and block-chain integrators, the imminent volatility underscores the importance of robust risk management, including dynamic collateral adjustments and automated execution triggers. Meanwhile, DeFi protocols offering Bitcoin-based options or futures can see surging volumes, making them prime targets for yield-generating strategies in a high-vol regime.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent price action—anchored by a successful support retest at $104,400, robust on-chain accumulation, and concentrated liquidity clusters—has created an environment ripe for a major short squeeze. A 10 % rally could vaporize $15.11 billion in short positions, while technical patterns like the golden cross and trendline break signal further upside potential toward $110,000+. Key psychological levels at $100,000 and strategic volume bands around $93,000–95,000 will guide risk-managed entries. As macro catalysts such as calls for Fed rate cuts bolster risk assets, traders and institutions alike should prepare for heightened volatility, leveraging on-chain insights and automated execution to navigate the next explosive move in Bitcoin.
