Main Points:
- 75% Chance for New Highs: Bitcoin is estimated to have a 75% probability of reaching new all-time highs within the next nine months, according to Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson.
- Historical Range and Seasonality: Peterson notes that Bitcoin is currently trading in the lower 25% of its historical range over the past decade, and historical seasonality data highlights April and October as key months with average returns of 12.98% and 21.98%, respectively.
- Short-Term Bullish Momentum: There’s a 50% chance for Bitcoin to rally over 50% in the short term, reflecting strong momentum supported by institutional interest and market fundamentals.
- On-Chain Cost Basis as a Key Indicator: Data from CryptoQuant, via analyst Crazzyblockk, shows that active whales have an average acquisition cost between $84,000 and $85,000, marking an important liquidity zone that could trigger significant market reactions if breached.
Introduction
Bitcoin appears set for a significant rebound with a 75% probability of hitting new highs within the next nine months, according to Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Peterson pointed out that Bitcoin is currently trading within the lower 25% of its historical range—a condition that statistically favors an upward trend. Furthermore, he highlighted that there is a 50% chance of a short-term rally of over 50%, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
Historical Trends and Seasonality
Timothy Peterson’s analysis is grounded in historical data:
- Seasonal Performance: Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s annual returns have been concentrated in April and October, with average gains of 12.98% in April and 21.98% in October.
- Lower Range Trading: The fact that Bitcoin is trading in the bottom 25% of its 10-year range suggests a strong potential for reversal and upward movement.
On-Chain Cost Basis: A Crucial Indicator
According to CryptoQuant data shared by anonymous analyst Crazzyblockk:
- Whale Acquisition Costs: The most active Bitcoin holders (whales) have an average cost basis between $84,000 and $85,000.
- Liquidity and Market Sentiment: This cost zone represents a “judgment zone” where traders and investors often decide to take profits or cut losses. A break below this level could trigger significant selling, whereas support at these levels might lead to renewed bullish momentum.
In summary, with a 75% probability of reaching new highs within the next nine months and a strong possibility of a short-term surge of over 50%, the outlook for Bitcoin appears robust. Historical trading ranges, seasonal performance, and critical on-chain cost metrics all support this bullish view. Investors should closely monitor the $84,000–$85,000 liquidity zone as it could provide key insights into market sentiment and potential trend reversals.
