Main Points：
- Sharp Decline: Bitcoin fell by over 1 million yen following President Trump’s detailed announcement on mutual tariffs, which sent shockwaves through global equity and crypto markets.
- Global Market Impact: The announcement led to a rapid sell-off in US equity futures and triggered a broad market downturn, with Bitcoin affected by the same global risk-off sentiment.
- Institutional Withdrawal: CME Bitcoin open interest has decreased, suggesting that institutional investors are pulling back from the market.
- Option Market Signals: The maximum open interest in the options market is now around the $80,000 level, indicating bearish sentiment among market participants.
- Upcoming Key Events: Investors await further US economic data—such as the ISM non-manufacturing index on April 3, US employment statistics on April 4, and the FOMC minutes on April 10—which may further influence Bitcoin’s direction.
1. Introduction: A Turbulent Market Reaction
On April 3, Bitcoin experienced a drastic decline of over 1 million yen following President Trump’s announcement regarding the details of mutual tariffs. At 5 AM Japan time, Trump’s remarks triggered a wave of panic across global markets, with the Dow Industrial Average futures falling by more than $1,000. This sell-off extended to the cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin also suffered a sharp drop amid widespread risk-off sentiment.
2. Market Overview and Institutional Trends
According to market observations, the sell-off after Trump’s tariff announcement was driven primarily by aggressive market orders. Analysis of the CME Bitcoin open interest (OI) reveals a marked decline, suggesting that institutional investors are beginning to exit their positions. Moreover, the options market shows that the highest open interest is now concentrated at around the $80,000 level—indicating that market participants are positioning for further downside.
3. Detailed Price Analysis
As of the latest update, the key price figures for Bitcoin are as follows:
- Opening Price: 12,684,746 yen (＄85,881)
- High Price: 13,378,048 yen (＄90,575)
- Low Price: 11,284,730 yen (＄76,402)
- Recent Price: 12,392,674 yen (＄83,904)
The chart shows that after an initial drop from the opening price, Bitcoin briefly rebounded before falling again. The prevailing trend is one of caution, with market participants focusing on current sell orders, particularly as the trading environment appears to be dominated by immediate market orders.
4. Technical Analysis
Key technical levels identified in the analysis are:
- Support Level: Approximately 11,200,000 yen (＄75,818)
- Resistance Level: Approximately 15,000,000 yen (＄101,556)
Although Bitcoin had previously approached and even exceeded its resistance levels during the session, the recent tariff-related sell-off pushed the price down. Should Bitcoin fail to hold above its short-term support near 12,390,641 yen (＄83,890), further declines may accelerate. These technical indicators underscore the high volatility and uncertain short-term outlook for the asset.
5. Future Outlook and Critical Dates
Looking ahead, several key events could significantly influence Bitcoin’s price movement:
- April 3: US ISM non-manufacturing index release
- April 4: US employment statistics release
- April 10: FOMC minutes publication
Additionally, the upcoming US individual tax filing deadline on April 15 may force some investors to sell their assets to secure tax funds, adding further downward pressure. Investors should closely monitor these events as they assess whether Bitcoin can stabilize or if the downtrend will persist.
6. Conclusion
Following President Trump’s tariff announcement, Bitcoin’s sharp decline of over 1 million yen reflects a global risk-off sentiment that has impacted both equity and cryptocurrency markets. The decrease in institutional open interest and bearish signals from the options market indicate that investors remain cautious amid the current uncertainty. As the market awaits critical US economic data and policy decisions, the short-term outlook for Bitcoin appears precarious. Investors should remain vigilant and be prepared for further volatility, especially if key support levels fail to hold.
