Main Points ：
- Bitcoin has historically underperformed in September, averaging –4.6% returns, making it the only month with a persistent negative trend.
- Macro headwinds—like U.S. tariffs, rising inflation pressures, and leveraged derivatives markets—could intensify selling.
- K33 identifies a “strategic buying zone” between $94,000 and $101,000 if these pressures push prices lower.
- Support levels at ~$101K and ~$94K are highlighted, with ETF outflows and low CME participation reinforcing downside risks.
- Long-term fundamentals remain intact: potential Fed rate cuts, fiscal stimulus, and institutional adoption could support recovery.
- Investors may consider defensive positioning now, with plans to redeploy capital later in September as clarity emerges.
1. September’s Historical Weakness: The “September Curse”
Bitcoin’s historical performance in September is notably poor. Since 2011, it is the only calendar month where the average monthly return is negative, at approximately –4.6%. This persistent pattern has shaped investor psychology, reinforcing caution during this period.
Other sources, including CoinDesk, indicate even larger negative averages: a 6% average loss and median decline of 5% over the past 12 years. This “Red September” phenomenon has seen pronounced downturns such as –13% in 2019 and –19% in 2014.
2. Macro Pressures Amplify Seasonal Risk
Seasonality alone doesn’t fully explain the risk. K33 highlights macroeconomic catalysts—especially U.S. tariff pressures and incoming inflation data (PPI, CPI)—that could trigger renewed downward momentum in September.
Moreover, derivatives markets are overheated. Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures has surged to multi-year highs, and funding rates exhibit extreme volatility. This leverage build-up raises the odds of sudden price squeezes, likely downward if sentiment shifts.
ETF flows are also weak: August recorded a net outflow of 15,399 BTC, one of the worst since U.S. spot ETFs launched. CME futures participation has dropped to historic lows, reducing institutional support amid rising volatility.
3. Strategic Buying Zone: $94K–$101K
Amid these headwinds, K33 sees a potential “strategic buying zone” in the $94,000 to $101,000 range. This is not mere wishful thinking but a calculated range, blending historical patterns with current market structure and macro backdrop.
Support at ~$101K is an immediate zone of interest, with a deeper level around ~$94K if selling intensifies. Investors monitoring these levels may find compelling entry points for long-term accumulation, assuming the broader thesis remains intact.
4. Long-Term Fundamentals Still Valid
Despite near-term risks, K33 and others remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term case. Factors supporting this view include:
- Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid slowing economy.
- Expansionary fiscal policies or broader stimulus initiatives.
- Increasing integration of crypto into retirement frameworks, such as 401(k) inclusion.
- Institutional treasury accumulation and strategic purchases (e.g., Michael Saylor’s acquisitions).
K33’s Head of Research, Vetle Lunde, personally reduced exposure in August but plans to re-enter later in September once macro data clarify the outlook.
5. Market Signals: ETF Outflows, Gold Divergence, Leverage Risks
A few signals suggest caution:
- ETF outflows (–15,399 BTC in August) highlight capital exiting Bitcoin in volatile periods.
- Gold is rallying to new highs, with central banks holding more gold than U.S. Treasuries—a sharp contrast to Bitcoin’s muted performance despite its “digital gold” moniker.
- Leverage risks remain elevated, creating vulnerability to explosive downward moves.
6. What Should Investors Consider?
- Defensive Positioning Now: Consider reducing exposure or setting buy orders in the $94K–$101K range.
- Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Avoid timing the bottom—spread purchases to smooth price entry.
- Risk Management: Only deploy capital you can afford to sit in under volatile conditions.
- Stay Informed: Watch U.S. macro releases (CPI, PPI), tariff developments, ETF flows, and derivatives metrics.
- Long-Term Mindset: If your thesis is structural (e.g., adoption, monetary policy shifts), temporary pullbacks may be buying opportunities.
Conclusion
September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month, with average losses between –4.6% and –6%, reinforcing the seasonal “curse.” This year, the pattern is compounded by macro risks—tariffs, slowing economic indicators, and excessive leverage in derivatives markets. ETF outflows and faltering institutional activity further pressure BTC, while gold’s surge underscores a divergence in investor sentiment.
Yet, among this instability lies a strategic buying opportunity identified by K33: a price range between $94,000 and $101,000 may offer compelling entry points. Long-term fundamentals—monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, institutional adoption—remain intact, supporting eventual recovery. Investors may choose to stay defensive now but be prepared to redeploy capital when clarity emerges later in September.
In essence, the convergence of historical seasonality, macroeconomic stress, and market structure vulnerabilities underscores the need for disciplined, informed investing, with an eye toward both risk control and long-term opportunity.
