Main Points：
- Sharp Decline Amid Tariff Fears: Bitcoin fell by over ¥600,000 (＄4,119), temporarily dipping below ¥12,000,000 (＄82,375) following President Trump’s detailed announcement on mutual tariffs, which triggered a simultaneous global equity market downturn.
- Technical and Options Market Signals: The 1-hour chart shows high volatility with a rising put-call ratio and increased open interest in lower price bands, particularly between $60,000 and $70,000, indicating growing bearish sentiment among investors.
- Large-Scale BTC Withdrawals: Around 3 AM on April 4, more than 3,500 BTC were withdrawn from major exchanges, suggesting that conversion risk to fiat is easing, contributing to a slight rebound.
- Correlation with Global Markets: Bitcoin is currently exhibiting a high correlation with U.S. stock indices in the current risk-off environment, which is exacerbating its downward trend.
- Key Upcoming Events: Critical U.S. economic data—including the employment report on April 4, FOMC minutes, and the CPI release on April 10—could further shape market sentiment and impact Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
1. A Global Market Downturn Affects Bitcoin
On April 4, Bitcoin’s price experienced a sharp decline, falling by over ¥600,000 (＄4,119) and temporarily dropping below the ¥12,000,000 (＄82,375) mark. This drop came in the wake of a detailed mutual tariff announcement by President Trump, which sent shockwaves through global equity markets, resulting in a widespread sell-off. Additionally, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index came in below expectations, further intensifying market worries.
2. 1-Hour Chart Analysis: Market Volatility and Bearish Signals
At 8 AM on April 4, the 1-hour BTC/JPY chart revealed that Bitcoin initially fell from its opening price of ¥12,684,746 (＄87,075), reached a low of ¥11,284,730 (＄77,465), then briefly rebounded before sliding back down to a recent low of approximately ¥12,060,739 (＄82,792). The price has since recovered slightly to ¥12,070,700 (＄82,860). Despite these minor rebounds, the chart continues to show significant volatility, with the wide range between high and low levels indicating persistent uncertainty.
3. Price Dynamics and Market Sentiment
The following price levels were observed:
- Opening Price: ¥12,684,746 (＄87,075)
- High Price: ¥13,378,048 (＄91,834)
- Low Price: ¥11,284,730 (＄77,465)
- Current Price: ¥12,070,700 (＄82,860)
These figures illustrate that although Bitcoin has attempted to rebound, the prevailing market sentiment remains bearish amid the current global economic and tariff-related uncertainties.
4. Technical Analysis and Options Market
Technical analysis highlights important levels:
- Support Level: Approximately ¥11,200,000 (＄76,883)
- Resistance Level: Approximately ¥15,000,000 (＄102,968)
Additionally, the options market shows that the put-call ratio has risen, with increased open interest in lower price bands—particularly in the $60,000 to $70,000 range—indicating that many investors are positioning for further declines.
Furthermore, around 3 AM on April 4, over 3,500 BTC were withdrawn from major exchanges, signaling that the risk of converting Bitcoin to fiat has diminished. This has contributed to a slight price rebound; however, the overall trend remains downward.
5. Outlook: Uncertain Short-Term Prospects
In the short term, the market appears indecisive. The immediate support around ¥12,060,739 (＄82,792) is crucial—if Bitcoin falls below this level, further declines may accelerate. With global stock markets still under pressure from tariff fears and economic uncertainty, the overall market sentiment remains risk-off. Investors will need to monitor upcoming U.S. economic data and policy announcements closely, as these events could significantly influence Bitcoin’s future trajectory.
6. Conclusion
Bitcoin’s continued decline amid global stock market turmoil and uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff announcement has pushed its price below ¥12,000,000 (＄82,375). While a slight rebound has been observed following significant BTC withdrawals from exchanges, technical indicators and options market data suggest that bearish sentiment persists. With several key U.S. economic indicators on the horizon, investors must remain vigilant as the market navigates this uncertain period.
