Main Points:
- End of Bull Cycle: CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declares that Bitcoin’s bull market has ended, with expectations of a 6–12 month period of bearish or sideways price action.
- Liquidity Concerns: A decline in market liquidity—evidenced by consecutive outflows from major institutions like BlackRock’s IBIT—signals insufficient fresh capital to offset heavy sell pressure, potentially triggering more significant corrections.
- Technical Indicators: Key metrics such as the MVRV Z-score falling below its 365-day moving average suggest weakening momentum, with projections that Bitcoin could retreat to around $63,000.
- Support Levels and Future Outlook: Analysts point to support between $75,000 and $78,000 as critical. Additionally, prediction markets show a 51% chance that Bitcoin will trade between $81,000 and $87,000 this week, with a 31% probability of reaching $75,000 by month’s end.
- Broader Market Impact: Economic uncertainty, global tensions, and continued underperformance in U.S. equities contribute to mounting bearish pressure, with some warning of potential stagflation.
1. End of the Bitcoin Bull Cycle
CryptoQuant’s CEO Ki Young Ju has stated that the Bitcoin bull market is over. In a recent tweet, he forecasted that over the next 6 to 12 months, Bitcoin is likely to experience either bearish or sideways price action rather than the robust upward momentum seen in previous cycles. According to Ju, the lack of new liquidity is a major contributing factor. For example, despite record trading volumes near the $100,000 mark, Bitcoin’s price remained relatively flat because there was insufficient fresh capital to absorb massive sell orders.
2. Declining Market Liquidity
Ju highlighted that liquidity on-chain has stagnated, noting that major funds such as BlackRock’s IBIT have seen three consecutive weeks of net outflows. Without new inflows to counterbalance significant sell pressure, the market is showing clear signs of weakness. This lack of liquidity is a bearish signal, suggesting that the previous rally’s momentum is drying up and that further corrections may be on the horizon.
3. Technical Indicators and Price Projections
CryptoQuant’s latest report points to several key technical indicators, including the MVRV Z-score. This metric, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value normalized by its standard deviation, has fallen below its 365-day moving average. Historically, such a scenario has often preceded deeper corrections. Based on these indicators, analysts predict that Bitcoin’s price could fall to around $63,000 in the near future.
Additionally, the report underscores the importance of support levels between $75,000 and $78,000. Analysts warn that if demand continues to weaken—with large investors refraining from buying—and if net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs persist, the risk of further price corrections will intensify.
4. Broader Market Sentiment and Predictions
Economic uncertainty and global geopolitical tensions are also weighing on the crypto market. According to Polymarket’s bettors, there is a 51% probability that Bitcoin will trade within the $81,000 to $87,000 range by the end of this week, and a 31% chance that it will drop to around $75,000 by month’s end.
CoinDesk data further reinforces these concerns, showing that Bitcoin experienced a 15% decline last month—a drop that effectively erased the gains achieved following the U.S. presidential election. These trends, combined with ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, suggest that Bitcoin’s current correction may not be a temporary setback but rather the beginning of a prolonged bearish phase.
5. Conclusion
In summary, CryptoQuant’s analysis indicates that the Bitcoin bull market is over, with expectations of a 6–12 month period of bearish or sideways price action. The current correction to around $76,000, driven by a lack of new liquidity and bearish technical indicators such as the low MVRV Z-score, suggests that more significant price adjustments could be on the horizon—possibly down to $63,000. With critical support levels between $75,000 and $78,000, and given the broader economic and geopolitical uncertainties, Bitcoin’s performance in the near term appears likely to be subdued. Investors are advised to exercise caution amid these challenging market conditions.
