Main Points:
- New Record High: BTC/USD surged past $119,000 after a massive short squeeze.
- Key Support & Resistance Levels: Near-term zones at $115,500–$116,500 and $120,000.
- Institutional Inflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded historic inflows exceeding $1 billion days, with cumulative 2025 inflows surpassing $50 billion.
- Macro & Policy Drivers: U.S. regulatory clarity, political developments, and rumors of Federal Reserve leadership changes.
- Future Upside Potential: Analysts point to a possible 50% rally based on prior price-discovery trends.
- Risks & Pullback Scenarios: A retest of $114,000–$115,000 could occur if momentum falters.
Surge to $119,444 Propels Bitcoin Higher
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) experienced a robust return of volatility heading into the weekend of July 13, 2025, ultimately eclipsing its previous all-time high to reach $119,444 on Bitstamp. This surge was fueled predominantly by a large-scale short squeeze: more than $20 million in short positions were liquidated within a single hour, according to CoinGlass data. Market participants bid prices upward to cover losing wagers, driving BTC beyond the $119,000 threshold for the first time.
BTC Price Trend (July 7–13, 2025)
See Figure 1 for a visual of BTC’s climb from $115,000 to $119,444 over the past week.
Key Support and Resistance Zones
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted two immediate zones of interest:
- Support Test: $115,500–$116,500, where large liquidity clusters lie below current levels.
- Resistance Ahead: $120,000, a psychological barrier that, if cleared, could open the path toward $135,000–$140,000, as noted by investor Niels of Ted Labs.
A failure to hold above these supports may see a retest of $114,000–$115,000, possibly shaking out weaker hands before the next leg up.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Reach Record Levels
Institutional demand has ratcheted up sharply. On Thursday, July 10, spot Bitcoin ETFs amassed a historic $1.18 billion in inflows, marking the second-largest single‐day intake since January 2024. Over the five‐day span, total ETF inflows hit $2.72 billion, pushing cumulative 2025 inflows past $50 billion. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone has taken in more than $53 billion year-to-date, now managing over 700,000 BTC (~3.55% of circulating supply).
“This demand is not sustainable at these price levels,” warned Jan3 CEO Samson Mow, pointing to the imbalance between ETF purchases and mining supply.
Political and Regulatory Tailwinds
Several macro and policy catalysts have underpinned Bitcoin’s ascent:
- U.S. “Crypto Week” Legislation: The Senate’s recent passage of the GENIUS Act and ongoing debates over stablecoin frameworks have boosted confidence in clear federal oversight.
- Presidential Developments: Rumors surrounding Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s resignation and the prospect of a pro-crypto administration have energized investors.
- Institutional Adoption: Roughly 130 public companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets; MicroStrategy controls nearly 600,000 BTC, and Wall Street analysts increasingly compare BTC’s risk-adjusted returns favorably to gold.
These factors, combined with favorable macroeconomic conditions, have accelerated Bitcoin’s mainstream integration.
Repeating the 7-Week Price Discovery Trend
Renowned analyst Rekt Capital observed that Bitcoin is completing the first week of its second “price-discovery upswing,” mimicking a pattern that previously lasted seven consecutive weeks. The initial trend began in November 2024 and culminated in a 50% rally. Should history repeat, BTC could climb to $140,000 in the coming weeks.
“There’s no reason to turn bearish here,” added trader BitBull, citing record weekly breakouts unseen since November 2024.
Potential Risks and Pullback Scenarios
Despite bullish momentum, traders should remain vigilant:
- Volatility Spike: Sharp moves can reverse quickly; a swift decline below $115,000 might trigger stop-loss cascades.
- Regulatory Setbacks: Delays in stablecoin legislation or negative statements from the SEC could dampen sentiment.
- Market Psychology: Overextended long positions risk fueling profit-taking, especially if inflows slow.
A balanced approach, such as dollar-cost averaging into dips, may help mitigate drawdown risks.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s breakout above $119,000 signals a powerful convergence of technical momentum, institutional capital, and regulatory clarity. With spot ETFs fueling sustained inflows and a potential repeat of multi-week price-discovery trends, the path to $140,000 now appears within reach. However, market participants should prepare for volatility and possible pullbacks to robust support zones. For investors seeking new crypto assets and alternative revenue streams, BTC’s current trajectory underscores the growing role of digital gold in diversified portfolios.
