Key Points :
- Bitcoin has entered its 7th week of the second “price discovery” phase since the 2024 halving, approaching a typical inflection point where corrections tend to begin.
- Historically, the second surge in price discovery ends between weeks 5–7, often followed by a correction.
- In 2025, prior to the first major correction, BTC dipped ~30%, from near $110,000 to below $75,000.
- Despite a potential correction, Q4 commonly brings explosive rallies, with a chance to break new highs.
- August saw modest gains (≈+2.1%), but September historically averages a ~3.8% decline. August and September both being bullish is rare.
- Analysts urge caution—patterns are historical analogies, not guarantees.
1. Seven Weeks into Price Discovery – Signs of an Impending Correction
Bitcoin is now in the seventh week of its second “price discovery” uptrend since the 2024 halving—an unusually advanced stage based on historical cycles. Analyst Rekt Capital notes that second upcycles typically conclude during weeks 5–7, marking the beginning of a correction phase.
2. Historical Patterns and a 2025 Precedent
In previous halving cycles, the second wave of price discovery frequently peaks at week 5, 6, or 7. For example, corrections began in 2013 and 2025 at week 7, and in 2021 at week 6. In the early months of 2025, Bitcoin experienced a sharp ~30% drawdown, falling from around $110,000 to under $75,000—a retracement consistent with past behavior.
3. August–September Anomaly and the Q4 Setup
Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin gained approximately 2.1% in August—slightly above the historical average of 1.8%—whereas September typically registers a decline of around 3.8%. Daan Crypto Trades emphasizes that BTC has rarely, if ever, posted two consecutive “green” months in August and September. When that streak fails to occur, it’s often followed by a sharp “flush” before a robust Q4 rally.
4. Potential Q4 Rally Despite Short-Term Pullback
Both Rekt Capital and Daan Crypto Trades see a corrective dip as not just typical but potentially constructive—setting the stage for a stronger, more sustainable rally in Q4. A clean retracement could reinforce Bitcoin’s long-term structure, elevating the probability of reaching new all-time highs toward year-end.
5. Read Carefully—Historical Analogies Aren’t Guarantees
Analysts caution that while these patterns are compelling, they are not deterministic. They warn that corrections can be driven by shifting sentiment, profit-taking, or broader macroeconomic shifts—so vigilance remains crucial.
Summary :
Bitcoin appears to be at a classic cycle juncture—seven weeks into its second post-halving price discovery run. History suggests that corrections often begin in weeks 5–7, making a near-term pullback likely. August’s modest gains and September’s historically weak trend add to the case. Yet, this could well be the precursor to an explosive Q4 rally, potentially driving Bitcoin to new historic highs. Still, as always in crypto, historical patterns are suggestive, not predictive—vigilance is essential.
