Main Points:
- Bitcoin has traded in a tight $117,000–$120,000 range, poised to close below $118,000.
- The FOMC decision on July 30 and the White House crypto policy report could reverse the current downtrend.
- The report is expected to reveal details of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, fueling bullish sentiment.
- Technical indicators show volatility compression; Bollinger Bands convergence signals an imminent breakout.
- Upcoming corporate earnings and key economic data may add further volatility.
- Forced liquidations accelerated the recent sell‑off, with ~$173.8 million of long positions liquidated in 12 hours.
- A positive report could trigger an upward breakout; failure may extend consolidation.
1. Introduction
Bitcoin (BTC) has spent the past several trading days confined within a narrow band between $117,000 and $120,000. As of Tuesday’s close, the likelihood of a daily settlement below $118,000 is increasing. Many traders are eyeing support levels around $114,000 to $110,000, fearing further downside. Yet, two major catalysts loom on Wednesday— the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and a highly anticipated White House report on cryptocurrency policy and strategic Bitcoin reserves. These events have the potential to spark a significant reversal in the prevailing bearish trend.
2. Bitcoin’s Current Trading Range
Over the past week, Bitcoin’s intraday range has tightened considerably. The daily high‑low spread shrank from about $4,200 on July 14 to roughly $2,300— a roughly 45% reduction in volatility. Such compression often precedes a decisive directional move. However, traders have remained cautious ahead of Wednesday’s announcements, leading to muted price action and a buildup of latent volatility.
3. Key Fundamental Catalysts
3.1 FOMC Decision on July 30
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, with a 98% probability priced in by CME’s FedWatch tool. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver remarks immediately following the policy announcement. While no rate cut is anticipated, Powell’s tone on future monetary policy—whether dovish or hawkish—could sway risk‑assets such as Bitcoin.
3.2 White House Crypto Policy Report
Simultaneously, the White House will unveil its first comprehensive crypto policy report. Sources suggest it will outline clear rules for stablecoins, agency jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, and introduce a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve funded by government‑seized BTC. Market participants are hopeful that the report will signal a more innovation‑friendly regulatory stance, potentially reversing the recent sell‑off.
4. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Insights
Under Executive Order 14178, signed March 6, 2025, the U.S. government established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve capitalized by forfeited BTC estimated at around 200,000 BTC. The upcoming report is expected to disclose the exact Holdings and formalize the reserve’s operational framework. Traders believe this could mark Bitcoin’s elevation to a quasi‑national asset, akin to gold reserves, supporting long‑term price appreciation.
5. Technical Landscape: Volatility Compression and Bollinger Bands
Technical analysis shows Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands narrowing, a classic sign of volatility contraction. When bands tighten, they often presage a significant expansion in price range. Given the current context—major policy announcements and potential bullish news—an upside breakout appears more probable than a breakdown.
6. Market Risk and Liquidations
Ahead of the FOMC, traders have reduced risk. According to TRDR data, Bitcoin’s open interest fell from $50.58 billion to $49.58 billion at the Wall Street open. CoinGlass reports forced liquidation of $173.8 million in long positions over the past 12 hours, exacerbating downward pressure.
7. Corporate Earnings and Macroeconomic Data
Wednesday’s data calendar is packed: non‑farm payrolls, PMI, GDP, Consumer Confidence, and ISM manufacturing/services indices will all be released. Additionally, earnings from Meta Platforms, Ford, Robinhood, and Microsoft could sway market sentiment across equity and crypto markets alike. Any surprise—positive or negative—could amplify Bitcoin’s next move.
8. Looking Ahead: Potential Scenarios
- Bullish Breakout: If the FOMC’s tone is neutral-to-dovish and the White House report presents clear, pro‑crypto policy with formal Strategic Reserve guidelines, Bitcoin could surge past $125,000, triggering short squeezes.
- Extended Consolidation: A neutral report—lacking fresh bullish catalysts—may leave Bitcoin in its current range, awaiting a new impetus.
- Bearish Breakdown: Unexpectedly hawkish Fed commentary or a report that disappoints expectations could push Bitcoin down to $110,000 support.
9. Conclusion
Bitcoin stands at a pivotal juncture. Volatility is compressed, liquidations have thinned speculative positions, and two major events—a Fed rate decision and a groundbreaking White House crypto policy report—will likely determine the next trend. For traders and investors seeking new crypto assets and yields, these developments could unveil fresh opportunities or signal caution. Stay alert to policy shifts and technical breakouts: the market’s next major move may arrive as soon as Wednesday.
